Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium Sun, 5 Apr - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Fenerbahçe FEN
1 Winner 0
Beşiktaş BES
Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Kerem Aktürkoğlu - 90+11' (P)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş has officially finished, with Fenerbahçe securing a narrow 1-0 victory. After a tightly contested first half that remained entirely scoreless, the home side eventually found the second-half breakthrough to claim the win. This full-time result aligned perfectly with the pre-match market, which heavily favored Fenerbahçe with a 49.3% implied win probability, compared to Beşiktaş's 23.9% and a 26.8% chance of a draw. Despite the victory being the expected outcome, the data noted a significant deviation level of 50.7% favoring Fenerbahçe's ultimate result. The hosts successfully controlled the overall tempo of the game, holding the majority of the ball with 56% possession while restricting the visitors to 44%. Expected goals (xG) metrics were unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to statistically evaluate whether the final scoreline was strictly consistent with the exact quality of scoring chances created. The match's overall efficiency shift was fully in line with pre-game expectations, reflecting a professional performance by the stronger team. Furthermore, the contest was played without any major disciplinary disruptions, as neither side received a red card to alter the flow of play.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Fenerbahçe showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Y. Kol
Y. Kol
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.81
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
A. Özkara
A. Özkara
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.81
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
?. Altay
?. Altay
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.81
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
M. Mazlum
M. Mazlum
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.81
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
Fenerbahçe D. Tedesco
D. Tedesco
VS
Beşiktaş A. Yalçın
A. Yalçın
2.25
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.95
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gaziantep F.K. Rank: 66 W
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: 60 L
Samsunspor Rank: 71 W
Antalyaspor Rank: 61 D
Kasımpaşa Rank: 65 D
Trabzonspor Rank: 80 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kasımpaşa Rank: 64 W
Gençlerbirliği Rank: 66 W
Galatasaray Rank: 88 L
Kocaelispor Rank: 64 W
Göztepe Rank: 73 W
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: 75 W
19
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
19 - 14 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Fenerbahçe
49.33%
Draw
26.78%
Away Beşiktaş
23.89%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
84.84
77.68
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fenerbahçe
Beşiktaş
Power Score
84.84
77.68
League Position
2
4
Global Rank
34
73

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Fenerbahçe — Opponent-weighted form score
Beşiktaş — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Fenerbahçe Beşiktaş

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Fenerbahçe

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Beşiktaş

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Fenerbahçe ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Beşiktaş
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
16.48
26.30
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.30
16.48
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Fenerbahçe -1.07 Efficiency Index
vs
Beşiktaş +1.07 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Fenerbahçe
Beşiktaş
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Fenerbahçe ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Beşiktaş
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Fenerbahçe Beşiktaş
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Fenerbahçe Beşiktaş
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Fenerbahçe
Beşiktaş
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Fenerbahçe
vs
Beşiktaş
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Fenerbahçe Beşiktaş
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Fenerbahçe 0.22
Beşiktaş 0.41
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Fenerbahçe Beşiktaş
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Fenerbahçe 0.00
Beşiktaş 0.02
Fenerbahçe
Beşiktaş
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 43 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Fenerbahçe FEN Home
43 matches
Beşiktaş BES Away
Match Record
19
Wins
10
14
Draws
14
10
Losses
19
Goals
69
Goals Scored
57
57
Goals Conceded
69
+12
Goal Difference
-12
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:05:57+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
E. Santana de Moraes
Brazil
31 E. Santana de Moraes
N. Cabral Semedo
Portugal
27 N. Cabral Semedo
M. Škriniar
Slovakia
37 M. Škriniar
J. Oosterwolde
Netherlands
24 J. Oosterwolde
A. Brown
Substitution
England
3 A. Brown
N. Kanté
France
17 N. Kanté
M. Guendouzi Olié
France
6 M. Guendouzi Olié
A. Musaba
Substitution
Netherlands
20 A. Musaba
M. Asensio Willemsen
Substitution
Spain
21 M. Asensio Willemsen
N. Dorgeles
Mali
45 N. Dorgeles
A. Souza Conceição
Substitution
Brazil
94 A. Souza Conceição
E. Destanoğlu
Turkey
30 E. Destanoğlu
R. Yılmaz
Turkey
33 R. Yılmaz
F. Uduokhai
Germany
14 F. Uduokhai
E. Agbadou
Ivory Coast
12 E. Agbadou
M. Murillo Bermudez
Substitution
Panama
62 M. Murillo Bermudez
O. Ndidi
Substitution
Nigeria
4 O. Ndidi
K. Asllani
Substitution
Albania
23 K. Asllani
J. Olaitan
Benin
15 J. Olaitan
O. Kökçü
Turkey
10 O. Kökçü
V. Černý
Substitution
Czech Republic
18 V. Černý
H. Oh
Substitution
South Korea
9 H. Oh

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 05, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium
Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium
Capacity
50530
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Yasin Kol
Abdullah Bora Özkara
Çağdaş Altay
Mehmet Salih Mazlum

Statistics

Possession
FEN
56%
BES
44%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
5 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 5
58 Dangerous attacks 34
56 Possession 44
10 Corners 5
18 Free kicks 13
3 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

90 Ball Safe 80
10 Goal Attempts 4
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 27
21 Dribble Attempts 22
23 Throwins 18
14 Successful Headers 13
6 Goal Kicks 7
7 Successful Dribbles 6
4 Substitutions 5
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

121 Attacks 75
4 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

83 Successful Passes Percentage 77
51 Long Passes 44
459 Passes 369
381 Successful Passes 285
8 Key Passes 7
55 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
28 Successful Long Passes 17

Defensive

64 Duels Won 55
18 Interceptions 15
26 Tackles 24
2 Saves 5

Build-up

25 Total Crosses 14
5 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

13 Fouls 19
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Yasin Kol

Starting XI ▼

31
Ederson
Ederson Goalkeeper
3
Archie Brown
Archie Brown Defender
22
Levent Mercan
Levent Mercan
Defender84'
24
Jayden Oosterwolde
Jayden Oosterwolde Defender
27
Nélson Semedo
Nélson Semedo Defender
37
Milan Škriniar
Milan Škriniar Defender
6
Mattéo Guendouzi
Mattéo Guendouzi Midfielder
17
N'Golo Kanté
N'Golo Kanté Midfielder
20
Anthony Musaba
Anthony Musaba Midfielder
9
Kerem Aktürkoğlu
Kerem Aktürkoğlu
Attacker62'
21
Marco Asensio
Marco Asensio Midfielder
7
Fred
Fred
Midfielder24'
45
Dorgeles Nene
Dorgeles Nene Midfielder
94
Talisca
Talisca Attacker
26
Sidiki Chérif
Sidiki Chérif
Attacker58'
Referee : Yasin Kol

Starting XI ▼

30
Ersin Destanoğlu
Ersin Destanoğlu Goalkeeper
12
Emmanuel Agbadou
Emmanuel Agbadou Defender
14
Felix Uduokhai
Felix Uduokhai Defender
33
Rıdvan Yılmaz
Rıdvan Yılmaz Defender
62
Amir Murillo
Amir Murillo Defender
25
Gökhan Sazdağı
Gökhan Sazdağı
Midfielder46'
4
Wilfred Ndidi
Wilfred Ndidi Midfielder
8
Salih Uçan
Salih Uçan
Midfielder86'
10
Orkun Kökçü
Orkun Kökçü Midfielder
15
Junior Olaitan
Junior Olaitan Midfielder
18
Vaclav Cerny
Vaclav Cerny Midfielder
11
Cengiz Ünder
Cengiz Ünder
Attacker67'
23
Kristjan Asllani
Kristjan Asllani Midfielder
7
Milot Rashica
Milot Rashica
Midfielder67'
9
Hyeon-gyu Oh
Hyeon-gyu Oh Attacker
91
Mustafa Hekimoğlu
Mustafa Hekimoğlu
Attacker90'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ederson
Time wasting / 8th Yellowcard
90+14'
Event
9th Yellowcard
90+14'
Event
Kerem Aktürkoğlu
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
90+11'
90+10'
Event
Cengiz Ünder
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
90+8'
Event
Emmanuel Agbadou
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90'
Event
Mustafa Hekimoğlu → Hyeon-gyu Oh
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Salih Uçan → Wilfred Ndidi
8th Substitution
Event
Levent Mercan → Archie Brown
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Jayden Oosterwolde
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
81'
78'
Event
Rıdvan Yılmaz
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Dorgeles Nene
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
68'
67'
Event
Milot Rashica → Kristjan Asllani
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Cengiz Ünder → Vaclav Cerny
6th Substitution
Event
Kerem Aktürkoğlu → Anthony Musaba
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Domenico Tedesco
Argument / 10th Yellowcard
60'
Event
Sidiki Chérif → Talisca
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Archie Brown
Goal disallowed
58'
52'
Event
Wilfred Ndidi
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Gökhan Sazdağı → Amir Murillo
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+5'
Event
Ersin Destanoğlu
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Fred → Marco Asensio
1st Substitution
24'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Fenerbahçe exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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