Real Zaragoza vs Mirandés Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio de la Romareda Sun, 5 Apr - 7:00 PM
La Liga 2
Real Zaragoza ZAR
1 Winner 2
Mirandés MIR
Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 7:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Dani Gómez - 23' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Unax del Cura - 45'
Carlos Fernández - 53'

CONTEXT

The match between Real Zaragoza and Mirandés has finished, with Mirandés securing a 2-1 away victory. The teams went into the halftime break locked in a 1-1 draw, but the visitors ultimately pulled ahead in the second half. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, as Mirandés stunned the stronger home side. Real Zaragoza entered the contest as clear favorites with a 47.2% implied win probability, while the visitors were given just a 24.2% chance of winning alongside a 28.6% probability of a draw. Consequently, the final outcome completely failed to align with the pre-match market. Real Zaragoza controlled the tempo for much of the game, finishing with 61% possession compared to Mirandés' 39%, but failed to translate that possession into a decisive advantage. Expected goals (xG) data is unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to evaluate if the result aligned with the underlying chance creation. However, the overall efficiency shift was measured to be in line with the general flow of the contest. The match was played without any major disciplinary disruptions, as neither team received a red card.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Mirandés showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Orellana Cid
M. Orellana Cid
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
?. Ramos Cinos
?. Ramos Cinos
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
J. Sarmiento Millet
J. Sarmiento Millet
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
R. Gonzalo Sánchez
R. Gonzalo Sánchez
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
Real Zaragoza D. Navarro Arenaz
D. Navarro Arenaz
VS
Mirandés A. Muneta Beldarrain
A. Muneta Beldarrain
1.08
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.85
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Leganés Rank: 66 D
Racing Santander Rank: 71 W
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 67 L
Almería Rank: 70 W
Cádiz Rank: 58 W
Burgos Rank: 68 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Albacete Rank: 66 D
Córdoba Rank: 62 D
Real Valladolid Rank: 61 W
Cádiz Rank: 60 L
Burgos Rank: 68 L
Ceuta Rank: 60 L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 8 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Real Zaragoza
47.21%
Draw
28.61%
Away Mirandés
24.18%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.76
59.13
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Real Zaragoza
Mirandés
Power Score
60.76
59.13
League Position
19
21
Global Rank
451
498

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Real Zaragoza — Opponent-weighted form score
Mirandés — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Real Zaragoza Mirandés

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Real Zaragoza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Mirandés

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Real Zaragoza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mirandés
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
48.28
43.08
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
43.08
48.28
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Real Zaragoza +0.53 Efficiency Index
vs
Mirandés -0.53 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Real Zaragoza
Mirandés
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Real Zaragoza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mirandés
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Real Zaragoza Mirandés
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Real Zaragoza Mirandés
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Real Zaragoza
Mirandés
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Real Zaragoza
vs
Mirandés
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Real Zaragoza Mirandés
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Real Zaragoza 0.38
Mirandés 0.42
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Real Zaragoza Mirandés
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Real Zaragoza 0.06
Mirandés 0.01
Real Zaragoza
Mirandés
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Real Zaragoza ZAR Home
21 matches
Mirandés MIR Away
Match Record
6
Wins
7
8
Draws
8
7
Losses
6
Goals
13
Goals Scored
15
15
Goals Conceded
13
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:06:30+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
E. Andrada
Argentina
1 E. Andrada
M. Aguirregabiria Padilla
Spain
20 M. Aguirregabiria Padilla
J. El Yamiq
Morocco
18 J. El Yamiq
A. Radovanović
Serbia
16 A. Radovanović
J. Larios López
Spain
27 J. Larios López
R. González Bayón
Substitution
Spain
11 R. González Bayón
Y. Saidu
Substitution
33 Y. Saidu
K. Bare
Albania
6 K. Bare
H. Pinilla Ruiz
Substitution
31 H. Pinilla Ruiz
K. Kodro
Bosnia and Herzegovina
19 K. Kodro
D. Gómez Alcón
Substitution
Spain
9 D. Gómez Alcón
J. Palomares Pulpillo
Spain
13 J. Palomares Pulpillo
F. Medrano Gastañaga
Spain
3 F. Medrano Gastañaga
J. Cabello Trujillo
Spain
15 J. Cabello Trujillo
J. Gutiérrez Martínez
Spain
22 J. Gutiérrez Martínez
T. Tamarit Tamarit
Substitution
27 T. Tamarit Tamarit
S. El Jebari El Hannouni
Substitution
Morocco
30 S. El Jebari El Hannouni
T. Helguera Merello Volante
Uruguay
6 T. Helguera Merello Volante
R. Bauzà Sureda
Substitution
Spain
18 R. Bauzà Sureda
F. Hernandez Coarasa
Spain
28 F. Hernandez Coarasa
U. del Cura Urra
Substitution
Spain
48 U. del Cura Urra
C. Fernández Luna
Substitution
Spain
10 C. Fernández Luna

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 05, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio de la Romareda
Capacity
33608
Attendance
17410
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Manuel Jesús Orellana Cid
Ángel Ramos Cinos
José Manuel Sarmiento Millet
R. Gonzalo Sánchez

Statistics

Possession
ZAR
59%
MIR
41%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 2
7 Shots 14
69 Dangerous attacks 36
61 Possession 39
6 Corners 6
21 Free kicks 16
5 Yellow Cards 8

Match Overview

4 Substitutions 5
59 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
22 Throwins 15
7 Goal Kicks 7
13 Successful Dribbles 8
13 Dribble Attempts 8
1 Penalties 0
1 Hit Woodwork 1
60 Ball Safe 65
13 Goal Attempts 8
0 Assists 1

Attacking

105 Attacks 61

Possession

82 Successful Passes Percentage 74
357 Passes 231
290 Successful Passes 171
30 Long Passes 21
16 Key Passes 9

Defensive

71 Duels Won 52
10 Interceptions 4
13 Tackles 18
2 Saves 5

Build-up

33 Total Crosses 10

Discipline

16 Fouls 22
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Manuel Jesús Orellana Cid

Starting XI ▼

1
Esteban Andrada
Esteban Andrada Goalkeeper
16
Aleksandar Radovanovic
Aleksandar Radovanovic Defender
18
Jawad El Yamiq
Jawad El Yamiq Defender
20
Martín Aguirregabiria
Martín Aguirregabiria Defender
27
Juan Larios
Juan Larios Defender
6
Keidi Bare
Keidi Bare Midfielder
11
Rober González
Rober González Midfielder
3
Dani Tasende
Dani Tasende
Defender80'
31
Hugo Pinilla
Hugo Pinilla Midfielder
23
Marcos Cuenca
Marcos Cuenca
Attacker46'
33
Yussif Saidu
Yussif Saidu Midfielder
26
Mawuli Kwame Mensah Vadze
Mawuli Kwame Mensah Vadze
Midfielder46'
9
Dani Gómez
Dani Gómez Attacker
7
Mario Soberón
Mario Soberón
Attacker73'
19
Kenan Kodro
Kenan Kodro Attacker
Referee : Manuel Jesús Orellana Cid

Starting XI ▼

13
Juanpa Palomares
Juanpa Palomares Goalkeeper
3
Fernando Medrano
Fernando Medrano Defender
15
Jorge Cabello
Jorge Cabello Defender
22
Juan Gutiérrez
Juan Gutiérrez Defender
27
Toni Tamarit
Toni Tamarit Defender
2
Hugo Novoa
Hugo Novoa
Attacker46'
6
Thiago Helguera
Thiago Helguera Midfielder
18
Rafel Bauzà
Rafel Bauzà Midfielder
16
Selvi Clua
Selvi Clua
Midfielder82'
28
Javi Hernández
Javi Hernández Midfielder
30
Salim El Jebari
Salim El Jebari Midfielder
7
Iker Varela
Iker Varela
Attacker68'
10
Carlos Fernández
Carlos Fernández Attacker
8
Aarón Martin
Aarón Martin
Midfielder83'
48
Unax del Cura
Unax del Cura Attacker
9
Siren Diao
Siren Diao
Attacker68'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+7'
Event
Javi Hernández
Foul / 12th Yellowcard
Event
Keidi Bare
Argument / 11th Yellowcard
90'
87'
Event
Juanpa Palomares
Time wasting / 10th Yellowcard
87'
Event
16th Yellowcard
83'
Event
Aarón Martin → Carlos Fernández
9th Substitution
82'
Event
Selvi Clua → Rafel Bauzà
8th Substitution
Event
Dani Tasende → Rober González
7th Substitution
80'
74'
Event
Iker Varela
Foul / 9th Yellowcard
Event
Mario Soberón → Dani Gómez
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Dani Gómez
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
70'
68'
Event
Iker Varela → Salim El Jebari
5th Substitution
68'
Event
Siren Diao → Unax del Cura
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Unax del Cura
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
62'
Event
15th Yellowcard
58'
Event
Juan Gutiérrez
Time wasting / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Dani Tasende
Argument / 13th Yellowcard
55'
Event
14th Yellowcard
55'
53'
Event
Carlos Fernández
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Mawuli Kwame Mensah Vadze → Yussif Saidu
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Marcos Cuenca → Hugo Pinilla
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Hugo Novoa → Toni Tamarit
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Unax del Cura
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
42'
Event
Salim El Jebari
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Yussif Saidu
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
37'
32'
Event
Rafel Bauzà
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Dani Gómez
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
23'
Event
Jawad El Yamiq
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
21'
21'
Event
Fernando Medrano
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Mirandés exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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