Katowice vs Wisła Płock Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion ul. Bukowa Sat, 4 Apr - 10:15 AM
Ekstraklasa
Katowice Katowice
1 Winner 0
Wisła Płock Wisła Płock
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 10:15 AM
Round 27 Regular Season
Lukas Klemenz - 90+3'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Katowice and Wisła Płock has finished, with the home side securing a narrow 1-0 full-time victory. After a tightly contested first half left the teams even at 0-0 at the break, Katowice ultimately broke the deadlock to claim the win. This outcome aligned neatly with the pre-match market, which favored Katowice with a 49.8% win probability, compared to a 26.4% chance of a draw and a 23.8% likelihood for the visitors. Despite winning as the pre-match favorites, the result generated a significant deviation level of 50.2% in favor of Katowice, underscoring a notable shift from the projected baseline probabilities. The home side asserted their dominance largely through ball control, commanding 64% of the possession while restricting Wisła Płock to just 36%. Furthermore, neither team received any red cards, meaning the overall flow of the game was completely unaffected by disciplinary dismissals. With expected goals (xG) data unavailable for this fixture, it cannot be determined whether the final score strictly aligned with the underlying scoring chances. However, the team's efficiency shift remained firmly in line with expectations, confirming that Katowice effectively converted their territorial possession advantage into a deserved, market-compliant triumph.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Katowice showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Obukowicz
M. Obukowicz
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
S. Mucha
S. Mucha
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
P. Szypula
P. Szypula
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
D. Stefanski
D. Stefanski
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Katowice R. Górak
R. Górak
VS
Wisła Płock M. Misiura
M. Misiura
1.75
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.31
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 60 L
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 63 L
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: 61 W
Radomiak Radom Rank: 59 W
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 65 W
Arka Gdynia Rank: 55 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 64 W
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 61 W
Arka Gdynia Rank: 55 L
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 63 L
Legia Warszawa Rank: 63 L
Widzew Lodz Rank: 58 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Katowice
49.79%
Draw
26.38%
Away Wisła Płock
23.83%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.5
50.22
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Katowice
Wisła Płock
Power Score
63.5
50.22
League Position
7
6
Global Rank
358
595

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Katowice — Opponent-weighted form score
Wisła Płock — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Katowice Wisła Płock

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Katowice

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Wisła Płock

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Katowice ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Wisła Płock
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.00
49.44
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
49.44
30.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Katowice -1.71 Efficiency Index
vs
Wisła Płock +1.71 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Katowice
Wisła Płock
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Katowice ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Wisła Płock
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Katowice Wisła Płock
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Katowice Wisła Płock
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Katowice
Wisła Płock
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Katowice
vs
Wisła Płock
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Katowice Wisła Płock
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Katowice 0.18
Wisła Płock 0.27
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Katowice Wisła Płock
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Katowice 0.00
Wisła Płock 0.01
Katowice
Wisła Płock
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Katowice Katowice Home
1 matches
Wisła Płock Wisła Płock Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
1
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:01:21+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
R. Straczek
Poland
12 R. Straczek
A. Czerwiński
Poland
30 A. Czerwiński
A. Jędrych
Poland
4 A. Jędrych
L. Klemenz
Poland
6 L. Klemenz
E. Jirka
Substitution
Slovakia
97 E. Jirka
S. Milewski
Poland
22 S. Milewski
D. Rasak
Poland
26 D. Rasak
M. Wasielewski
Poland
23 M. Wasielewski
M. Wdowiak
Substitution
Poland
70 M. Wdowiak
I. Shkurin
Substitution
Belarus
80 I. Shkurin
B. Nowak
Poland
27 B. Nowak
R. Leszczynski
Poland
12 R. Leszczynski
N. Mijušković
Montenegro
25 N. Mijušković
M. Kamiński
Poland
35 M. Kamiński
M. Haglind-Sangré
Sweden
4 M. Haglind-Sangré
Q. Lecoeuche
Substitution
France
13 Q. Lecoeuche
W. Nowak
Poland
30 W. Nowak
K. Savvidis
Substitution
Greece
88 K. Savvidis
D. Kun
Substitution
Poland
14 D. Kun
Ž. Rogelj
Slovenia
21 Ž. Rogelj
S. Hamulic
Substitution
Netherlands
77 S. Hamulic
Ł. Sekulski
Poland
20 Ł. Sekulski

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 04, 2026, 10:15 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 27 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion ul. Bukowa
Capacity
7455
Attendance
12268
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Michal Obukowicz
Sebastian Mucha
Piotr Szypula
Daniel Stefanski

Statistics

Possession
Katowice
59%
Wisła Płock
41%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 7
84 Dangerous attacks 56
64 Possession 36
10 Corners 2
9 Free kicks 9
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

69 Ball Safe 76
7 Goal Kicks 10
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55
1 Assists 0
12 Throwins 15
11 Dribble Attempts 20
5 Successful Dribbles 11
0 Hit Woodwork 2
3 Substitutions 4
0 Injuries 1
8 Goal Attempts 10

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 2
91 Attacks 76

Possession

61 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
27 Successful Long Passes 26
476 Successful Passes 241
88 Successful Passes Percentage 77
540 Passes 313
10 Key Passes 10
44 Long Passes 72

Defensive

46 Duels Won 40
14 Tackles 9
4 Interceptions 9
4 Saves 4

Build-up

11 Accurate Crosses 5
41 Total Crosses 17

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
9 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Daniel Stefanski

Starting XI ▼

12
Rafal Straczek
Rafal Straczek Goalkeeper
4
Arkadiusz Jedrych
Arkadiusz Jedrych Defender
6
Lukas Klemenz
Lukas Klemenz Defender
30
Alan Czerwinski
Alan Czerwinski Defender
22
Sebastian Milewski
Sebastian Milewski Midfielder
23
Marcin Wasielewski
Marcin Wasielewski Midfielder
26
Damian Rasak
Damian Rasak Midfielder
97
Erik Jirka
Erik Jirka Midfielder
8
Borja Galán
Borja Galán
Midfielder67'
27
Bartosz Nowak
Bartosz Nowak Attacker
70
Mateusz Wdowiak
Mateusz Wdowiak Attacker
15
Eman Markovic
Eman Markovic
Midfielder67'
80
Ilya Shkurin
Ilya Shkurin Attacker
21
Jakub Kokosiński
Jakub Kokosiński
Attacker80'
Referee : Daniel Stefanski

Starting XI ▼

12
Rafal Leszczynski
Rafal Leszczynski Goalkeeper
4
Marcus Haglind-Sangré
Marcus Haglind-Sangré Defender
25
Nemanja Mijuskovic
Nemanja Mijuskovic Defender
35
Marcin Kaminski
Marcin Kaminski Defender
13
Quentin Lecoeuche
Quentin Lecoeuche Midfielder
19
Dion Gallapeni
Dion Gallapeni
Defender80'
14
Dominik Kun
Dominik Kun Midfielder
8
Dani Pacheco
Dani Pacheco
Midfielder67'
21
Zan Rogelj
Zan Rogelj Midfielder
30
Wiktor Nowak
Wiktor Nowak Midfielder
88
Kyriakos Savvidis
Kyriakos Savvidis Midfielder
11
Jorge Jiménez
Jorge Jiménez
Midfielder80'
20
Lukasz Sekulski
Lukasz Sekulski Attacker
77
Said Hamulic
Said Hamulic Attacker
99
Deni Jurić
Deni Jurić
Attacker27'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Lukas Klemenz
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
90+3'
Event
Alan Czerwinski
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Jakub Kokosiński → Ilya Shkurin
7th Substitution
80'
80'
Event
Dion Gallapeni → Quentin Lecoeuche
5th Substitution
80'
Event
Jorge Jiménez → Kyriakos Savvidis
6th Substitution
Event
Eman Markovic
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
79'
Event
Eman Markovic → Mateusz Wdowiak
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Borja Galán → Erik Jirka
2nd Substitution
67'
67'
Event
Dani Pacheco → Dominik Kun
4th Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Marcin Wasielewski
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45+1'
45'
Event
Wiktor Nowak
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
27'
Event
Deni Jurić → Said Hamulic
1st Substitution

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Katowice exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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