Cádiz vs Córdoba Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla Sat, 4 Apr - 12:00 PM
La Liga 2
Cádiz CAD
1 Winner 3
Córdoba Córdoba
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 12:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Sergio Arribas - 80'
Goal
|
Goal
Cristian Carracedo - 18' (P)
Adrián Fuentes - 57'
Isma Ruiz - 90+1'
Mario Climent 63' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

The match between Cádiz and Córdoba has officially finished, with the visitors securing a 3-1 full-time victory. Córdoba carried a narrow 1-0 lead into halftime before comfortably extending their advantage. This final outcome aligned with the pre-match market, which favored Córdoba with a 42.5% implied probability of winning, compared to a 29.7% chance for Cádiz and 27.9% for a draw. Despite this alignment with the betting favorite, the result still represented a significant deviation level of 57.5% in Córdoba's favor. Córdoba successfully dictated the flow of the game, holding the majority of possession at 59% while limiting Cádiz to just 41% of the ball. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, it cannot be determined if the final scoreline was strictly consistent with the underlying chance quality. However, the overall efficiency shift of the match remained in line with baseline expectations. The fixture was heavily influenced by a major disciplinary event, as Cádiz was reduced to ten men after receiving a red card. This critical ejection caused a notable red card distortion during the second half, crippling the home side's comeback efforts and allowing Córdoba to control the remainder of the match.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Córdoba showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Pérez Hernández
M. Pérez Hernández
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.76
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.37
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
G. López Romera
G. López Romera
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.76
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.37
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
S. Rebollo Merino
S. Rebollo Merino
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.76
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.37
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
F. Sáiz Villares
F. Sáiz Villares
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.76
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.37
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
Cádiz S. González Soriano
S. González Soriano
VS
Córdoba I. Ania Cadavieco
I. Ania Cadavieco
0.88
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.38
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Valladolid Rank: 59 L
Ceuta Rank: 61 L
Málaga Rank: 67 L
Mirandés Rank: 57 W
Real Zaragoza Rank: 61 L
SD Eibar Rank: 69 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 67 L
Mirandés Rank: 59 D
Burgos Rank: 66 L
Real Sociedad II Rank: 62 L
Racing Santander Rank: 70 L
FC Andorra Rank: 62 L
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 4 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Cádiz
29.66%
Draw
27.89%
Away Córdoba
42.45%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
58.32
61.62
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Cádiz
Córdoba
Power Score
58.32
61.62
League Position
18
11
Global Rank
524
419

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Cádiz — Opponent-weighted form score
Córdoba — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Cádiz Córdoba

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Cádiz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Córdoba

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Cádiz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Córdoba
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.63
25.42
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.42
29.63
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Cádiz +0.43 Efficiency Index
vs
Córdoba -0.43 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Cádiz
Córdoba
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Cádiz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Córdoba
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Cádiz Córdoba
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Cádiz Córdoba
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Cádiz
Córdoba
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Cádiz
vs
Córdoba
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Cádiz Córdoba
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Cádiz 0.23
Córdoba 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Cádiz Córdoba
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Cádiz 0.08
Córdoba 0.02
Cádiz
Córdoba
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 15 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Cádiz CAD Home
15 matches
Córdoba Córdoba Away
Match Record
7
Wins
4
4
Draws
4
4
Losses
7
Goals
24
Goals Scored
18
18
Goals Conceded
24
+6
Goal Difference
-6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:02:17+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
V. Aznar Ussen
Brazil
13 V. Aznar Ussen
A. Caicedo Mina
Substitution
Ecuador
29 A. Caicedo Mina
B. Kovačević
Serbia
14 B. Kovačević
I. Ortega
Spain
6 I. Ortega
S. Arribas Prieto
Spain
38 S. Arribas Prieto
J. González
Substitution
Spain
24 J. González
M. Diakité
Mali
5 M. Diakité
J. Fernández Sáez de la Torre
Substitution
Spain
11 J. Fernández Sáez de la Torre
S. Ortuño Díaz
Substitution
Spain
15 S. Ortuño Díaz
M. Climent Plá
Spain
21 M. Climent Plá
R. Martí Salvador
Substitution
Spain
9 R. Martí Salvador
I. Iker
Andorra
1 I. Iker
I. Vilarrasa Palacios
Spain
2 I. Vilarrasa Palacios
R. González Alves
Brazil
16 R. González Alves
X. Egea
Substitution
Spain
15 X. Egea
J. Martín Valerón
Spain
4 J. Martín Valerón
S. Guardiola Navarro
Substitution
Spain
14 S. Guardiola Navarro
I. Ruiz Sánchez
Spain
8 I. Ruiz Sánchez
D. Requena Sánchez
Substitution
Spain
30 D. Requena Sánchez
K. Villodres Medina
Substitution
Spain
11 K. Villodres Medina
A. Fuentes González
Substitution
Spain
18 A. Fuentes González
C. Carracedo García
Spain
23 C. Carracedo García

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 04, 2026, 12:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla
Capacity
20724
Attendance
10885
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Manuel Ángel Pérez Hernández
Gonzalo López Romera
S. Rebollo Merino
F. Sáiz Villares

Statistics

Possession
CAD
44%
Córdoba
56%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
0 Big Chances Created 3
6 Shots 7
43 Dangerous attacks 40
41 Possession 59
1 Corners 5
19 Free kicks 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

9 Goal Attempts 12
28 Throwins 20
0 Penalties 1
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60
5 Successful Dribbles 6
72 Ball Safe 82
1 Assists 2
5 Substitutions 5
11 Goal Kicks 8
13 Dribble Attempts 10

Attacking

91 Attacks 82
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

209 Successful Passes 347
6 Key Passes 10
293 Passes 439
71 Successful Passes Percentage 79
37 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45
21 Successful Long Passes 33
57 Long Passes 73

Defensive

21 Tackles 14
5 Interceptions 10
52 Duels Won 48
6 Saves 1

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 14
6 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
17 Fouls 19

Lineup

Referee : Manuel Ángel Pérez Hernández

Starting XI ▼

13
Victor Wehbi Aznar
Victor Wehbi Aznar Goalkeeper
6
Iker Recio
Iker Recio Defender
14
Bojan Kovacevic
Bojan Kovacevic Defender
29
Alfred Caicedo
Alfred Caicedo Defender
20
Iza Carcelén
Iza Carcelén
Defender59'
38
Sergio Arribas
Sergio Arribas Defender
5
Moussa Diakité
Moussa Diakité Midfielder
11
Suso
Suso Midfielder
23
García Pascual
García Pascual
Attacker59'
15
Sergio Ortuño
Sergio Ortuño Midfielder
10
Brian Ocampo
Brian Ocampo
Attacker70'
21
Mario Climent
Mario Climent Midfielder
24
Joaquín González
Joaquín González Midfielder
18
Yussi Diarra
Yussi Diarra
Midfielder76'
9
Roger Martí
Roger Martí Attacker
37
Jerónimo Dómina
Jerónimo Dómina
Attacker59'
Referee : Manuel Ángel Pérez Hernández

Starting XI ▼

1
Iker Álvarez
Iker Álvarez Goalkeeper
2
Ignasi Vilarrasa
Ignasi Vilarrasa Defender
4
Álex Martín
Álex Martín Defender
15
Xavi Sintes
Xavi Sintes Defender
21
Carlos Albarrán
Carlos Albarrán
Defender46'
16
Rubén Alves
Rubén Alves Defender
8
Isma Ruiz
Isma Ruiz Midfielder
14
Sergi Guardiola
Sergi Guardiola Midfielder
10
Jacobo González
Jacobo González
Attacker77'
30
Dani Requena
Dani Requena Midfielder
20
Alberto del Moral
Alberto del Moral
Midfielder77'
11
Kevin Medina
Kevin Medina Attacker
5
Diego Bri
Diego Bri
Attacker63'
18
Adrián Fuentes
Adrián Fuentes Attacker
6
Diego Percan
Diego Percan
Attacker77'
23
Cristian Carracedo
Cristian Carracedo Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Iker Recio
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
90+5'
90+1'
Event
Isma Ruiz
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
90'
Event
Isma Ruiz
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Brian Ocampo
4th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Sergio Arribas
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
80'
77'
Event
Alberto del Moral → Dani Requena
9th Substitution
77'
Event
Jacobo González → Sergi Guardiola
8th Substitution
77'
Event
Diego Percan → Adrián Fuentes
10th Substitution
Event
Yussi Diarra → Joaquín González
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Brian Ocampo → Sergio Ortuño
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Mario Climent
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
63'
63'
Event
Diego Bri → Kevin Medina
5th Substitution
Event
Iza Carcelén → Alfred Caicedo
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Jerónimo Dómina → Roger Martí
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
García Pascual → Suso
4th Substitution
59'
57'
Event
Adrián Fuentes
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
46'
Event
Carlos Albarrán → Xavi Sintes
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
30'
Event
Iker Álvarez
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
29'
Event
Iván Ania
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
18'
Event
Cristian Carracedo
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Moussa Diakité
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
15'
11'
Event
Sergi Guardiola
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Córdoba exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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