Zenit vs Krylya Sovetov Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Gazprom Arena Sat, 4 Apr - 12:15 PM
Premier League
Zenit ZSP
2 Winner 1
Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 12:15 PM
Round 23 Regular Season
Jhon Jhon - 49'
Aleksandr Sobolev - 55'
Goal
|
Goal
S. Babkin - 75'

CONTEXT

The match is officially finished, with Zenit defeating Krylya Sovetov 2-1 at full-time. The game was tightly contested early on, as both teams entered the half-time break locked in a scoreless draw before the offenses finally broke through in the second period. Heading into the fixture, pre-match market probabilities were entirely flat, standing at zero for a home win, draw, and away win. Despite this lack of preliminary market data, Zenit's ultimate victory was considered mathematically market aligned. Zenit also stood out as the primary deviation team, registering a significant deviation level from baseline expectations. On the pitch, Zenit controlled a slight majority of the play, finishing with 53% possession compared to Krylya Sovetov's 47%. Expected goals (xG) metrics were unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to determine if the final scoreline was strictly consistent with xG. However, the overall efficiency shift for the match remained exactly in line with normal parameters. Finally, it was a disciplined affair; the game concluded without any red cards being issued, ensuring neither side had to navigate a numerical disadvantage.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Zenit showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Khatuev
A. Khatuev
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.83
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.51
D. Petrov
D. Petrov
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.83
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.51
I. Kaplenkov
I. Kaplenkov
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.83
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.51
R. Shafeev
R. Shafeev
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.83
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.51
Zenit S. Semak
S. Semak
VS
Krylya Sovetov M. Adiev
M. Adiev
2.42
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.75
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dinamo Moskva Rank: 71 W
Spartak Moskva Rank: 72 W
Orenburg Rank: 52 L
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: 66 W
Akron Rank: 54 W
Rubin Kazan Rank: 62 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rubin Kazan Rank: 62 D
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 50 L
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: 56 W
Dinamo Moskva Rank: 70 L
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: 66 L
Krasnodar Rank: 77 L
25
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
25 - 7 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Zenit
0%
Draw
0%
Away Krylya Sovetov
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
80.15
54.82
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Zenit
Krylya Sovetov
Power Score
80.15
54.82
League Position
2
13
Global Rank
63
621

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Zenit — Opponent-weighted form score
Krylya Sovetov — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Zenit Krylya Sovetov

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Zenit

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Krylya Sovetov

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Zenit ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Krylya Sovetov
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.19
30.32
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.32
35.19
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Zenit +0.54 Efficiency Index
vs
Krylya Sovetov -0.54 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Zenit
Krylya Sovetov
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Zenit ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Krylya Sovetov
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Zenit Krylya Sovetov
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Zenit Krylya Sovetov
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Zenit
Krylya Sovetov
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Zenit
vs
Krylya Sovetov
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Zenit Krylya Sovetov
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Zenit 0.30
Krylya Sovetov 0.27
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Zenit Krylya Sovetov
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Zenit 0.02
Krylya Sovetov 0.04
Zenit
Krylya Sovetov
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Zenit ZSP Home
37 matches
Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov Away
Match Record
25
Wins
5
7
Draws
7
5
Losses
25
Goals
78
Goals Scored
35
35
Goals Conceded
78
+43
Goal Difference
-43
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:01:59+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
D. Adamov
Russia
16 D. Adamov
V. Karavaev
Substitution
Russia
15 V. Karavaev
I. Diveev
Russia
78 I. Diveev
M. Mota Filho
Brazil
33 M. Mota Filho
R. Vega
Argentina
66 R. Vega
W. Barrios Terán
Substitution
Colombia
5 W. Barrios Terán
Y. Gorshkov
Substitution
Russia
4 Y. Gorshkov
M. Glushenkov
Substitution
Russia
10 M. Glushenkov
M. Valle da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
8 M. Valle da Silva
J. dos Santos Rosa
Brazil
14 J. dos Santos Rosa
A. Sobolev
Russia
7 A. Sobolev
S. Pesyakov
Russia
30 S. Pesyakov
S. Bozhin
Russia
47 S. Bozhin
A. Oroz
Croatia
5 A. Oroz
N. Chernov
Russia
23 N. Chernov
K. Pechenin
Belarus
2 K. Pechenin
S. Babkin
Russia
6 S. Babkin
M. Vityugov
Substitution
Russia
8 M. Vityugov
N. Rasskazov
Substitution
Russia
15 N. Rasskazov
A. Rahmanović
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
11 A. Rahmanović
G. Charles
Substitution
Nigeria
99 G. Charles
I. Oleynikov
Substitution
Russia
19 I. Oleynikov

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 04, 2026, 12:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 23 · Regular Season
Stadium
Gazprom Arena
Capacity
68000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Adlan Khatuev
Denis Petrov
Igor Kaplenkov
Rafael Shafeev

Statistics

Possession
ZSP
54%
Krylya Sovetov
46%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 4
53 Dangerous attacks 45
53 Possession 47
6 Corners 3
12 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

9 Successful Dribbles 3
69 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
14 Successful Headers 10
22 Throwins 21
13 Dribble Attempts 9
6 Goal Kicks 13
2 Assists 0
66 Ball Safe 78
5 Substitutions 5
2 Injuries 1
12 Goal Attempts 8

Attacking

90 Attacks 86
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

84 Successful Passes Percentage 84
480 Passes 432
51 Long Passes 42
404 Successful Passes 363
31 Successful Long Passes 15
61 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36

Defensive

5 Interceptions 15
15 Tackles 7
4 Saves 3
47 Duels Won 31

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 15
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

14 Fouls 10
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Rafael Shafeev

Starting XI ▼

16
Denis Adamov
Denis Adamov Goalkeeper
15
Vyacheslav Karavaev
Vyacheslav Karavaev Defender
6
Vanja Drkusic
Vanja Drkusic
Defender78'
33
Nino
Nino Defender
66
Román Vega
Román Vega Defender
78
Igor Diveev
Igor Diveev Defender
4
Yuriy Gorshkov
Yuriy Gorshkov Midfielder
61
Daniil Kondakov
Daniil Kondakov
Midfielder70'
5
Wilmar Barrios
Wilmar Barrios Midfielder
3
Douglas Santos
Douglas Santos
Defender62'
8
Wendel
Wendel Midfielder
20
Pedro
Pedro
Attacker70'
10
Maksim Glushenkov
Maksim Glushenkov Midfielder
11
Luiz Henrique
Luiz Henrique
Attacker62'
14
Jhon Jhon
Jhon Jhon Midfielder
7
Aleksandr Sobolev
Aleksandr Sobolev Attacker
Referee : Rafael Shafeev

Starting XI ▼

30
S. Pesyakov
S. Pesyakov Goalkeeper
5
D. Oroz
D. Oroz Defender
23
Nikita Chernov
Nikita Chernov Defender
47
Sergey Bozhin
Sergey Bozhin Defender
2
Kirill Pechenin
Kirill Pechenin Midfielder
6
S. Babkin
S. Babkin Midfielder
8
M. Vityugov
M. Vityugov Midfielder
14
Mihajlo Banjac
Mihajlo Banjac
Midfielder61'
15
N. Rasskazov
N. Rasskazov Midfielder
77
I. Akhmetov
I. Akhmetov
Midfielder61'
11
A. Rahmanović
A. Rahmanović Attacker
72
Dani Fernández
Dani Fernández
Defender61'
19
I. Oleynikov
I. Oleynikov Attacker
20
K. Stolbov
K. Stolbov
Midfielder76'
99
Chinedu Geoffrey
Chinedu Geoffrey Attacker
26
Jimmy Marín
Jimmy Marín
Midfielder28'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Denis Adamov
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Vanja Drkusic → Vyacheslav Karavaev
10th Substitution
78'
76'
Event
K. Stolbov → I. Oleynikov
9th Substitution
75'
Event
S. Babkin
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Daniil Kondakov → Yuriy Gorshkov
7th Substitution
70'
Event
Pedro → Wendel
8th Substitution
70'
Event
Luiz Henrique → Maksim Glushenkov
5th Substitution
62'
Event
Douglas Santos → Wilmar Barrios
6th Substitution
62'
61'
Event
I. Akhmetov → N. Rasskazov
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Mihajlo Banjac → M. Vityugov
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Dani Fernández → A. Rahmanović
4th Substitution
Event
Aleksandr Sobolev
Header / 2nd Goal
55'
Event
Jhon Jhon
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
53'
Event
Jhon Jhon
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
49'
1ST-HALF
28'
Event
Jimmy Marín → Chinedu Geoffrey
1st Substitution
14'
Event
Nikita Chernov
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Zenit exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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