Shakhtar Donetsk vs Rukh Vynnyky Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Arena L'viv Sun, 5 Apr - 12:30 PM
Premier League
Shakhtar Donetsk SHK
3 Winner 0
Rukh Vynnyky Rukh Vynnyky
Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 12:30 PM
Round 22 Regular Season
Eguinaldo - 35', 62'
Luca Meirelles - 88'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match has finished with Shakhtar Donetsk securing a commanding 3-0 full-time victory over Rukh Vynnyky. Leading 1-0 at half-time, the hosts ultimately delivered a result that was entirely aligned with the pre-match market. Heading into the fixture, Shakhtar Donetsk were the overwhelming favorites with a 79.6% win probability, compared to a 16% chance for a draw and a minimal 4.4% chance for an away upset. The decisive victory represented a significant deviation level in favor of Shakhtar Donetsk. The home side dictated the tempo throughout the contest, controlling an overwhelming 70% of the possession while restricting Rukh Vynnyky to just 30%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to evaluate if the outcome directly aligned with the underlying chance quality. However, the overall scoring efficiency shift was recorded as being exactly in line with baseline expectations for the dominant side. Furthermore, the match concluded without any severe disciplinary incidents, as zero red cards were issued to either team. Without any dismissals to alter the tactical landscape or impact the flow of the game, the stronger team cruised to a comfortable, predictable win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Shakhtar Donetsk showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Romanov
D. Romanov
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
A. Kovalenko
A. Kovalenko
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
M. Striletska
M. Striletska
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
I. Stashuk
I. Stashuk
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Shakhtar Donetsk A. Turan
A. Turan
VS
Rukh Vynnyky I. Fedyk
I. Fedyk
2.21
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zorya Luhansk Rank: 52 D
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: 49 W
Oleksandria Rank: 46 W
Veres Rank: 46 W
Karpaty Rank: 52 W
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: 46 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: 57 L
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: 45 L
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: 50 L
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: 42 L
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 66 L
SK Poltava Rank: 33 W
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 4 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Shakhtar Donetsk
79.59%
Draw
16.03%
Away Rukh Vynnyky
4.38%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
73.33
44.78
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Shakhtar Donetsk
Rukh Vynnyky
Power Score
73.33
44.78
League Position
2
14
Global Rank
129
891

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Shakhtar Donetsk — Opponent-weighted form score
Rukh Vynnyky — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Shakhtar Donetsk Rukh Vynnyky

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Shakhtar Donetsk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rukh Vynnyky

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Shakhtar Donetsk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rukh Vynnyky
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.43
6.50
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
6.50
25.43
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Shakhtar Donetsk +1.84 Efficiency Index
vs
Rukh Vynnyky -1.84 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Shakhtar Donetsk
Rukh Vynnyky
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Shakhtar Donetsk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rukh Vynnyky
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Shakhtar Donetsk Rukh Vynnyky
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Shakhtar Donetsk Rukh Vynnyky
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Shakhtar Donetsk
Rukh Vynnyky
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Shakhtar Donetsk
vs
Rukh Vynnyky
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Shakhtar Donetsk Rukh Vynnyky
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Shakhtar Donetsk 0.14
Rukh Vynnyky 0.05
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Shakhtar Donetsk Rukh Vynnyky
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Shakhtar Donetsk 0.00
Rukh Vynnyky 0.03
Shakhtar Donetsk
Rukh Vynnyky
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 10 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Shakhtar Donetsk SHK Home
10 matches
Rukh Vynnyky Rukh Vynnyky Away
Match Record
6
Wins
0
4
Draws
4
0
Losses
6
Goals
18
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
18
+13
Goal Difference
-13
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:02:44+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
D. Riznyk
Ukraine
31 D. Riznyk
Y. Konoplia
Ukraine
26 Y. Konoplia
V. Bondar
Substitution
Ukraine
5 V. Bondar
M. Santos da Silva Barbosa
Substitution
Brazil
4 M. Santos da Silva Barbosa
I. Azarovi
Georgia
16 I. Azarovi
E. Nazaryna
Ukraine
29 E. Nazaryna
P. Obah
Substitution
Nigeria
68 P. Obah
P. Delmino da Silva
Brazil
10 P. Delmino da Silva
A. Bondarenko
Ukraine
21 A. Bondarenko
E. de Sousa Lemos
Substitution
Brazil
7 E. de Sousa Lemos
L. Traore
Substitution
Burkina Faso
2 L. Traore
Y. Gereta
Ukraine
1 Y. Gereta
A. Kitela
Ukraine
75 A. Kitela
O. Tovarnytskyi
Ukraine
76 O. Tovarnytskyi
D. Pidgurskyi
Substitution
Ukraine
15 D. Pidgurskyi
V. Roman
Ukraine
93 V. Roman
56
56
K. dos Santos Chrispim
Substitution
Brazil
7 K. dos Santos Chrispim
T. Brener de Paula
Brazil
30 T. Brener de Paula
O. Prytula
Ukraine
10 O. Prytula
S. Diallo
Substitution
Senegal
14 S. Diallo
L.Jorge Alexandrino de Lima
Substitution
Brazil
21 L.Jorge Alexandrino de Lima

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 05, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 22 · Regular Season
Stadium
Arena L'viv
Capacity
34915
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Denis Romanov
Andriy Kovalenko
Maryna Striletska
Igor Stashuk

Statistics

Possession
SHK
71%
Rukh Vynnyky
29%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
13 Shots 1
96 Dangerous attacks 19
70 Possession 30
6 Corners 0
4 Free kicks 5
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

6 Goal Kicks 11
2 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 5
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

123 Attacks 49

Defensive

0 Saves 5

Discipline

6 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Andriy Kovalenko

Starting XI ▼

31
Dmytro Riznyk
Dmytro Riznyk Goalkeeper
4
Marlon
Marlon Defender
22
Mykola Matvienko
Mykola Matvienko
Defender46'
5
Valeriy Bondar
Valeriy Bondar Defender
18
Alaa Ghram
Alaa Ghram
Defender90'
16
Irakli Azarovi
Irakli Azarovi Defender
26
Yukhym Konoplya
Yukhym Konoplya Defender
10
Pedrinho
Pedrinho Midfielder
21
Artem Bondarenko
Artem Bondarenko Midfielder
29
Yegor Nazaryna
Yegor Nazaryna Midfielder
2
Lassina Traoré
Lassina Traoré Attacker
49
Luca Meirelles
Luca Meirelles
Attacker73'
7
Eguinaldo
Eguinaldo Attacker
2
37
Lucas Ferreira
Lucas Ferreira
Midfielder73'
68
Prosper Obah
Prosper Obah Attacker
14
Isaque
Isaque
Midfielder50'
Referee : Andriy Kovalenko

Starting XI ▼

1
Yuriy-Volodymyr Gereta
Yuriy-Volodymyr Gereta Goalkeeper
76
Oleksiy Tovarnytskyi
Oleksiy Tovarnytskyi Defender
93
Vitaliy Roman
Vitaliy Roman Defender
7
Klayver
Klayver Midfielder
47
Kostyantyn Kvas
Kostyantyn Kvas
Midfielder76'
10
Ostap Prytula
Ostap Prytula Midfielder
14
Samba Diallo
Samba Diallo Midfielder
11
Vasyl Runich
Vasyl Runich
Midfielder67'
15
Denys Pidgurskyi
Denys Pidgurskyi Midfielder
45
Mykhailo Dziun
Mykhailo Dziun
Midfielder81'
30
Talles
Talles Midfielder
56
Maksym Boiko Midfielder
75
Andriy Kitela
Andriy Kitela Midfielder
21
Luiz Jorge Alexandrino de Lima
Luiz Jorge Alexandrino de Lima Attacker
9
Igor Neves
Igor Neves
Attacker46'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Pedrinho
1st Missed Penalty
90'
Event
Alaa Ghram → Valeriy Bondar
9th Substitution
90'
Event
Luca Meirelles
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
88'
Event
Yukhym Konoplya
4th Yellowcard
82'
81'
Event
Mykhailo Dziun → Denys Pidgurskyi
8th Substitution
76'
Event
Kostyantyn Kvas → Klayver
7th Substitution
75'
Event
Igor Neves
3rd Yellowcard
Event
Lucas Ferreira → Eguinaldo
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Luca Meirelles → Lassina Traoré
6th Substitution
73'
71'
Event
Vitaliy Roman
2nd Yellowcard
67'
Event
Vasyl Runich → Samba Diallo 
4th Substitution
Event
Eguinaldo
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
62'
59'
Event
Maksym Boyko
1st Yellowcard
Event
Isaque → Prosper Obah
3rd Substitution
50'
Event
Mykola Matvienko → Marlon
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Igor Neves → Luiz Jorge Alexandrino de Lima
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Eguinaldo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
35'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Shakhtar Donetsk exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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