Degerfors vs Sirius Prediction, Preview and Stats

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Stora Valla Sat, 4 Apr - 1:00 PM
Allsvenskan
Degerfors Degerfors
0 Winner 3
Sirius SIR
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 1:00 PM
Round 1 Regular Season
|
Goal
Neo Jönsson - 46'
Isak Bjerkebo - 78' (P)
Robbie Ure - 82'

CONTEXT

The match has finished with Sirius securing a comprehensive 3-0 away victory over Degerfors. The two sides were completely even at the break, heading into half-time locked at 0-0 before the visitors dominated the second half to claim all three points. The final outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations, as Sirius entered the contest as the stronger team with a 45.9% implied probability of winning. A Degerfors home win and a draw were both priced at 27.1%. Despite the anticipated away victory, the emphatic three-goal margin ultimately represented a significant deviation in favor of Sirius. Sirius controlled the flow of the game slightly, holding 53% of the possession compared to the hosts' 47%. Expected goals (xG) data was not available for this fixture, so it cannot be determined if the outcome aligned with the underlying attacking metrics. However, the overall efficiency shift was entirely in line with pre-game benchmarks. Furthermore, the match concluded without any red cards being shown, ensuring neither side's tactical plans were derailed by disciplinary issues.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sirius showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
P. Rehnlund
P. Rehnlund
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.82
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.64
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
R. Sundell
R. Sundell
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.82
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.64
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
F. Klitte
F. Klitte
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.82
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.64
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
M. Beigi
M. Beigi
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.82
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.64
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Degerfors H. Goitom
H. Goitom
VS
Sirius A. Engelmark
A. Engelmark
1.6
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.6
1.6 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brommapojkarna Rank: 48 W
Hammarby Rank: 69 D
Öster Rank: 42 W
Halmstad Rank: 49 L
Djurgården Rank: 64 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.6 i
Last 6 Opponents
Värnamo Rank: 43 W
Norrköping Rank: 46 W
Elfsborg Rank: 55 W
Häcken Rank: 57 D
Malmö FF Rank: 63 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 2 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Degerfors
27.08%
Draw
27.05%
Away Sirius
45.87%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
45.39
59.32
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Degerfors
Sirius
Power Score
45.39
59.32
League Position
16
2
Global Rank
873
490

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Degerfors — Opponent-weighted form score
Sirius — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Degerfors Sirius

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Degerfors

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sirius

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Degerfors ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sirius
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.11
16.79
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.79
20.11
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Degerfors +0.35 Efficiency Index
vs
Sirius -0.35 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Degerfors
Sirius
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Degerfors ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sirius
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Degerfors Sirius
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Degerfors Sirius
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Degerfors
Sirius
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Degerfors
vs
Sirius
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Degerfors Sirius
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Degerfors 0.14
Sirius 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Degerfors Sirius
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Degerfors 0.08
Sirius 0.00
Degerfors
Sirius
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 8 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Degerfors Degerfors Home
8 matches
Sirius SIR Away
Match Record
1
Wins
5
2
Draws
2
5
Losses
1
Goals
7
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
7
-7
Goal Difference
+7
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:02:39+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Igonen
Estonia
38 M. Igonen
D. Sundgren
Sweden
6 D. Sundgren
J. Hernández Mesas
Substitution
28 J. Hernández Mesas
J. Pikkarainen
Finland
5 J. Pikkarainen
S. Diatara
18 S. Diatara
G. Yaw Yiriyon
Substitution
Ghana
13 G. Yaw Yiriyon
K. Karlsson
Substitution
Sweden
4 K. Karlsson
L. Fritzson
Sweden
14 L. Fritzson
N. Girmai
Sweden
22 N. Girmai
M. Rafferty
Substitution
Sweden
10 M. Rafferty
D. Vukojevic
Substitution
Sweden
11 D. Vukojevic
D. Celic
Sweden
34 D. Celic
O. Krusnell
Sweden
22 O. Krusnell
T. Anker
Denmark
4 T. Anker
V. Ekström
Sweden
20 V. Ekström
H. Castegren
Sweden
5 H. Castegren
M. Lindberg
Denmark
6 M. Lindberg
M. Heier
Substitution
Sweden
10 M. Heier
I. Bjerkebo
Sweden
11 I. Bjerkebo
V. Svensson
Substitution
Denmark
24 V. Svensson
O. Jönsson
Substitution
Sweden
17 O. Jönsson
R. Ure
Scotland
9 R. Ure

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 04, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 1 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stora Valla
Capacity
7500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Per Rehnlund
Richard Sundell
Fredrik Klitte
Mahbod Beigi

Statistics

Possession
Degerfors
49%
SIR
51%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 3
1 Big Chances Created 3
3 Shots 5
49 Dangerous attacks 38
47 Possession 53
6 Corners 4
11 Free kicks 19
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

27 Successful Dribbles Percentage 20
24 Throwins 23
15 Dribble Attempts 15
10 Goal Kicks 6
4 Successful Dribbles 3
0 Assists 2
0 Penalties 1
5 Substitutions 3
49 Ball Safe 37
1 Goal Attempts 4

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0
93 Attacks 85

Possession

41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 29
26 Successful Long Passes 22
72 Successful Passes Percentage 74
264 Successful Passes 320
369 Passes 431
6 Key Passes 4
64 Long Passes 75

Defensive

19 Tackles 18
1 Saves 1
10 Interceptions 8
44 Duels Won 59

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 2
25 Total Crosses 7

Discipline

20 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Fredrik Klitte

Starting XI ▼

38
Matvei Igonen
Matvei Igonen Goalkeeper
5
Juhani Pikkarainen
Juhani Pikkarainen Defender
6
Daniel Sundgren
Daniel Sundgren Defender
18
Samba Diatara
Samba Diatara Defender
28
Jesús Hernández
Jesús Hernández Defender
15
Nasiru Moro
Nasiru Moro
Defender49'
4
Kazper Karlsson
Kazper Karlsson Midfielder
16
Sebastian Ohlsson
Sebastian Ohlsson
Midfielder66'
10
Marcus Rafferty
Marcus Rafferty Midfielder
20
Elias Barsoum
Elias Barsoum
Midfielder66'
13
Gideon Yaw
Gideon Yaw Midfielder
21
Alexander Berisson
Alexander Berisson
Attacker89'
14
Ludvig Fritzson
Ludvig Fritzson Midfielder
22
Nahom Girmai Netabay
Nahom Girmai Netabay Midfielder
11
Dijan Vukojevic
Dijan Vukojevic Attacker
24
Olle Leonardsson
Olle Leonardsson
Attacker66'
Referee : Fredrik Klitte

Starting XI ▼

34
David Celic
David Celic Goalkeeper
4
Tobias Anker
Tobias Anker Defender
5
Henrik Castegren
Henrik Castegren Defender
20
Victor Ekstrom
Victor Ekstrom Defender
22
Oscar Krusnell
Oscar Krusnell Defender
6
Marcus Lindberg
Marcus Lindberg Midfielder
10
Melker Heier
Melker Heier Midfielder
21
Charlie Nildén
Charlie Nildén
Midfielder89'
11
Isak Bjerkebo
Isak Bjerkebo Midfielder
17
Neo Jönsson
Neo Jönsson Midfielder
25
Odera Samuel Adindu
Odera Samuel Adindu
Attacker86'
24
Victor Svensson
Victor Svensson Midfielder
8
Matthias Nartey
Matthias Nartey
Midfielder89'
9
Robbie Ure
Robbie Ure Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Alexander Berisson → Gideon Yaw
6th Substitution
89'
89'
Event
Charlie Nildén → Melker Heier
8th Substitution
89'
Event
Matthias Nartey → Victor Svensson
7th Substitution
86'
Event
Odera Samuel Adindu → Neo Jönsson
5th Substitution
82'
Event
Robbie Ure
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
78'
Event
Isak Bjerkebo
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Sebastian Ohlsson → Kazper Karlsson
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Olle Leonardsson → Dijan Vukojevic
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Elias Barsoum → Marcus Rafferty
2nd Substitution
66'
Event
Gideon Yaw
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
53'
Event
Gideon Yiriyon
2nd Yellowcard
53'
Event
Nasiru Moro → Jesús Hernández
1st Substitution
49'
46'
Event
Neo Jönsson
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Sirius exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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