Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Bundesliga
VfL Wolfsburg
WOB
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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CONTEXT
The match has officially finished with a thrilling full-time scoreline of Bayer 04 Leverkusen 6, VfL Wolfsburg 3. The victory for Leverkusen aligned perfectly with the pre-match market, which heavily favored the home side with a 66.3% win probability compared to a 20% chance of a draw and just 13.7% for Wolfsburg. However, the path to victory represented a significant deviation for Bayer 04 Leverkusen, as they shockingly trailed 3-2 at half-time before unleashing a dominant second-half performance to secure the win. Leverkusen dictated the tempo throughout the contest, commanding an overwhelming 69% of the possession while restricting the visitors to just 31% of the ball. Although expected goals (xG) metrics were unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to mathematically assess if the final score was consistent with underlying chance creation, the overall efficiency shift remained in line with expectations. The nine-goal spectacle was played without major disciplinary incidents, as zero red cards were issued to either side. Ultimately, despite the first-half scare, the stronger home team fulfilled the market's heavy expectations to secure a spectacular, high-scoring victory.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Bayer 04 Leverkusen showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
VfL Wolfsburg
Team Power Ranking
i
89.69
73.84
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
VfL Wolfsburg
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
VfL Wolfsburg
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
⚠ Proxy
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
VfL Wolfsburg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
VfL Wolfsburg
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
VfL Wolfsburg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
VfL Wolfsburg
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 41 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:02:58+00:00
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General Information
Next Match
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
vs
Borussia Dortmund
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sat, 11 Apr - 1:30 PM
Venue: Away
VfL Wolfsburg
vs
Eintracht Frankfurt
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sat, 11 Apr - 1:30 PM
Venue: Home
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
Manager ▼
Starting XI ▼














Substitutes ▼






Manager ▼
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Match Commentary