St. Mirren vs Aberdeen Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
The Smisa Stadium Sat, 4 Apr - 2:00 PM
Premiership
St. Mirren STM
2 Winner 0
Aberdeen ABE
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Jonah Ayunga - 40'
Alex Gogic - 83'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between St. Mirren and Aberdeen has officially finished, with the home side claiming a narrow 1-0 victory at full-time. St. Mirren established their lead early, taking a 1-0 advantage into the half-time break, and successfully protected that margin until the final whistle. Heading into the fixture, St. Mirren were the pre-match favorites with a 46.1% implied probability of winning, alongside a 28% chance of a draw and a 25.9% likelihood of an Aberdeen upset. The final outcome aligned perfectly with the pre-match market. However, clinching the victory still required a significant deviation effort of 53.9% from St. Mirren to overcome their opponents. On the pitch, the hosts dictated the tempo, controlling 57% of the possession compared to Aberdeen’s 43%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, so it cannot be determined if the final scoreline aligned with the underlying chance quality. The contest proceeded smoothly without any red cards to disrupt either team's tactical shape. Ultimately, the overall efficiency shift remained entirely in line with projections, ensuring the stronger side secured the expected win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: St. Mirren showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
N. Walsh
N. Walsh
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
F. Connor
F. Connor
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
D. McFarlane
D. McFarlane
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
E. Anderson
E. Anderson
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.8
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
St. Mirren C. McLeish
C. McLeish
VS
Aberdeen S. Robinson
S. Robinson
0.72
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.16
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Falkirk Rank: 65 W
Rangers Rank: 76 L
Dundee United Rank: 62 L
Livingston Rank: 53 D
Motherwell Rank: 67 L
Hibernian Rank: 69 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rangers Rank: 76 L
Falkirk Rank: 65 D
Celtic Rank: 77 L
Hearts Rank: 73 L
Dundee United Rank: 62 D
Dundee Rank: 59 L
15
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
15 - 18 - 24
24

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home St. Mirren
46.14%
Draw
27.95%
Away Aberdeen
25.9%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
58.45
55.84
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
St. Mirren
Aberdeen
Power Score
58.45
55.84
League Position
10
9
Global Rank
517
598

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
St. Mirren — Opponent-weighted form score
Aberdeen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) St. Mirren Aberdeen

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

St. Mirren

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Aberdeen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

St. Mirren ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Aberdeen
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.42
19.53
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.53
23.42
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
St. Mirren +0.32 Efficiency Index
vs
Aberdeen -0.32 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
St. Mirren
Aberdeen
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

St. Mirren ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Aberdeen
Created Set-piece attacking threat
St. Mirren Aberdeen
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
St. Mirren Aberdeen
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
St. Mirren
Aberdeen
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
St. Mirren
vs
Aberdeen
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
St. Mirren Aberdeen
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
St. Mirren 0.23
Aberdeen 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
St. Mirren Aberdeen
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
St. Mirren 0.00
Aberdeen 0.04
St. Mirren
Aberdeen
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 57 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

St. Mirren STM Home
57 matches
Aberdeen ABE Away
Match Record
15
Wins
24
18
Draws
18
24
Losses
15
Goals
56
Goals Scored
81
81
Goals Conceded
56
-25
Goal Difference
+25
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:03:42+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
S. George
England
1 S. George
L. Donnelly
Northern Ireland
4 L. Donnelly
A. Gogić
Cyprus
13 A. Gogić
M. Freckleton
England
21 M. Freckleton
M. O'Hara
Scotland
6 M. O'Hara
K. Phillips
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
88 K. Phillips
J. Devaney
England
8 J. Devaney
A. Campbell
Scotland
16 A. Campbell
D. John
Substitution
Wales
24 D. John
J. Ayunga
Substitution
Kenya
11 J. Ayunga
M. Mandron
France
9 M. Mandron
P. Worre Bråtveit
Norway
99 P. Worre Bråtveit
G. Molloy
Republic of Ireland
21 G. Molloy
L. Morrison
Scotland
23 L. Morrison
J. Milne
Scotland
22 J. Milne
E. Gyamfi
Germany
77 E. Gyamfi
G. Shinnie
Substitution
Scotland
4 G. Shinnie
A. Aremu
Nigeria
32 A. Aremu
A. Jensen
Substitution
Denmark
28 A. Jensen
K. Bilalovic
Substitution
Sweden
14 K. Bilalovic
M. Lazetić
Substitution
Serbia
27 M. Lazetić
T. Keskinen
Substitution
Finland
81 T. Keskinen

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 04, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
The Smisa Stadium
Capacity
8016
Attendance
7653
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
N. Walsh
Frank Connor
Daniel McFarlane
Euan Anderson

Statistics

Possession
STM
57%
ABE
43%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 0
4 Shots 0
47 Dangerous attacks 28
57 Possession 43
8 Corners 5
15 Free kicks 8
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

3 Substitutions 5
60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25
15 Successful Headers 12
8 Goal Kicks 9
5 Dribble Attempts 16
15 Throwins 31
1 Hit Woodwork 0
84 Ball Safe 73
3 Successful Dribbles 4
1 Assists 0

Attacking

111 Attacks 76
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

7 Key Passes 5
80 Successful Passes Percentage 76
467 Passes 342
374 Successful Passes 261
35 Successful Long Passes 19
67 Long Passes 58
52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33

Defensive

49 Duels Won 41
0 Saves 2
19 Interceptions 14
16 Tackles 18

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 17
7 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
8 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : N. Walsh

Starting XI ▼

1
Shamal George
Shamal George Goalkeeper
4
Liam Donnelly
Liam Donnelly Defender
13
Alex Gogic
Alex Gogic Defender
21
Miguel Freckleton
Miguel Freckleton Defender
6
Mark O'Hara
Mark O'Hara Midfielder
8
J. Devaney
J. Devaney Midfielder
16
A. Campbell
A. Campbell Midfielder
24
Declan John
Declan John Midfielder
3
Scott Tanser
Scott Tanser
Defender59'
88
Killian Phillips
Killian Phillips Midfielder
14
Dan N'Lundulu
Dan N'Lundulu
Attacker59'
9
Mikael Mandron
Mikael Mandron Attacker
11
Jonah Ayunga
Jonah Ayunga Attacker
2
Jayden Richardson
Jayden Richardson
Defender68'
Referee : N. Walsh

Starting XI ▼

99
Per Kristian Bråtveit
Per Kristian Bråtveit Goalkeeper
21
Gavin Molloy
Gavin Molloy Defender
22
Jack Milne
Jack Milne Defender
23
Liam Morrison
Liam Morrison Defender
4
Graeme Shinnie
Graeme Shinnie Midfielder
25
Lyall Cameron
Lyall Cameron
Midfielder65'
28
Alexander Jensen
Alexander Jensen Midfielder
38
Dylan Lobban
Dylan Lobban
Midfielder79'
32
Afeez Aremu
Afeez Aremu Midfielder
77
Emmanuel Gyamfi
Emmanuel Gyamfi Midfielder
14
Kenan Bilalovic
Kenan Bilalovic Attacker
20
Toyosi Olusanya
Toyosi Olusanya
Attacker46'
27
Marko Lazetić
Marko Lazetić Attacker
15
Kevin Nisbet
Kevin Nisbet
Attacker46'
81
Topi Keskinen
Topi Keskinen Attacker
16
Stuart Armstrong
Stuart Armstrong
Midfielder46'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Alex Gogic
Header / 2nd Goal
83'
79'
Event
Dylan Lobban → Alexander Jensen
8th Substitution
Event
Jayden Richardson → Jonah Ayunga
7th Substitution
68'
65'
Event
Lyall Cameron → Graeme Shinnie
6th Substitution
Event
Dan N'Lundulu → Killian Phillips
4th Substitution
59'
Event
Scott Tanser → Declan John
5th Substitution
59'
46'
Event
Toyosi Olusanya → Kenan Bilalovic
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Kevin Nisbet → Marko Lazetić
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Stuart Armstrong → Topi Keskinen
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Jonah Ayunga
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
45+1'
45'
Event
Marko Lazetić
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Jonah Ayunga
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
40'
39'
Event
Liam Morrison
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
27'
Event
Kenan Bilalovic
1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

83
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Alexander Gogic scores for St Mirren in the 83rd minute.
79
Substitution Substitution
Dylan Lobban is substituted for Aberdeen in the 79th minute.
68
Substitution Substitution
Jayden Richardson is substituted for St Mirren in the 68th minute.
65
Substitution Substitution
Lyall Cameron is substituted for Aberdeen in the 65th minute.
59
Substitution Substitution
Daniel N'Lundulu is substituted for St Mirren in the 59th minute.
59
Substitution Substitution
Scott Tanser is substituted for St Mirren in the 59th minute.
45
Substitution Substitution
Toyosi Olusanya is substituted for Aberdeen at the 45th minute.
45
Substitution Substitution
Kevin Nisbet is substituted for Aberdeen in the 45th minute.
45
Substitution Substitution
Stuart Armstrong is substituted for Aberdeen in the 45th minute.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marko Lazetic from Aberdeen receives a yellow card in the 45th minute.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jonah Ayunga of St Mirren receives a yellow card in the 46th minute.
40
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Jonah Ayunga scores for St Mirren at the 40-minute mark.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Liam Morrison of Aberdeen receives a yellow card in the 39th minute.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: St. Mirren exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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