Dinamo Moskva vs Orenburg Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
VTB Arena (Moskva) Sat, 4 Apr - 2:30 PM
Premier League
Dinamo Moskva DMO
3 – 3
Orenburg Orenburg
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 2:30 PM
Round 23 Regular Season
Fahd Moufi - 29' (Own Goal)
K. Tyukavin - 39'
Bitello - 61'
Goal
|
Goal
Fahd Moufi - 45+2'
Du Queiroz - 51', 66'

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished, with Orenburg securing a 3-1 full-time victory on the road against Dinamo Moskva. Heading into the fixture, Dinamo Moskva was widely regarded as the stronger team. Therefore, Orenburg’s decisive win represents a significant deviation from standard expectations. Interestingly, the pre-match market probabilities were completely flat, showing exactly zero for a home win, draw, or away win. Because of this neutral baseline, the final outcome was technically flagged as market aligned. Despite suffering the defeat, Dinamo Moskva comfortably controlled the tempo with 64% of the possession, leaving Orenburg with just 36% of the ball. Expected goals (xG) data was entirely unavailable for this contest, making it impossible to evaluate if the outcome was consistent with the underlying chance creation. Nevertheless, post-match data indicates that the overall efficiency shift was simply in line with the flow of the game. The match proceeded without any severe disciplinary incidents, as no red cards were shown to either squad. Ultimately, Orenburg efficiently capitalized on their limited possession to secure a notable, significant upset over the favored hosts.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Orenburg showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Bogdanov
A. Bogdanov
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.83
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.51
I. Demeshko
I. Demeshko
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.83
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.51
A. Sagdiev
A. Sagdiev
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.83
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.51
Dinamo Moskva P. Alpatov
P. Alpatov
VS
Orenburg I. Akhmetzyanov
I. Akhmetzyanov
1.25
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.92
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zenit Rank: 79 L
Rostov Rank: 61 W
CSKA Moskva Rank: 72 W
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 55 W
Spartak Moskva Rank: 72 D
Akhmat Grozny Rank: 59 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Spartak Moskva Rank: 72 L
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: 56 L
Zenit Rank: 80 W
Akron Rank: 54 W
Akhmat Grozny Rank: 59 L
CSKA Moskva Rank: 72 L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 1 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dinamo Moskva
0%
Draw
0%
Away Orenburg
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.06
52.05
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dinamo Moskva
Orenburg
Power Score
70.06
52.05
League Position
7
15
Global Rank
185
686

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dinamo Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Orenburg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dinamo Moskva Orenburg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dinamo Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Orenburg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dinamo Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Orenburg
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.23
34.03
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.03
30.23
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dinamo Moskva -0.42 Efficiency Index
vs
Orenburg +0.42 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dinamo Moskva
Orenburg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dinamo Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Orenburg
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dinamo Moskva Orenburg
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dinamo Moskva Orenburg
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dinamo Moskva
Orenburg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Dinamo Moskva
vs
Orenburg
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Dinamo Moskva Orenburg
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Dinamo Moskva 0.36
Orenburg 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Dinamo Moskva Orenburg
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Dinamo Moskva 0.07
Orenburg 0.06
Dinamo Moskva
Orenburg
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dinamo Moskva DMO Home
11 matches
Orenburg Orenburg Away
Match Record
6
Wins
4
1
Draws
1
4
Losses
6
Goals
19
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
19
+5
Goal Difference
-5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:04:22+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
K. Rasulov
Russia
40 K. Rasulov
L. Zaydenzal
Russia
56 L. Zaydenzal
R. Fernández Urbieta
Substitution
Paraguay
6 R. Fernández Urbieta
D. Loiola da Silva
Brazil
57 D. Loiola da Silva
D. Skopintsev
Russia
7 D. Skopintsev
T. Marinkin
Substitution
60 T. Marinkin
R. Dias
Brazil
44 R. Dias
N. Ngamaleu
Substitution
Cameroon
13 N. Ngamaleu
J. de Souza Mares
Substitution
Brazil
10 J. de Souza Mares
I. Sergeev
Substitution
Russia
33 I. Sergeev
K. Tyukavin
Russia
70 K. Tyukavin
B. Ovsyannikov
Russia
1 B. Ovsyannikov
D. Vedernikov
Substitution
Russia
3 D. Vedernikov
D. Khotulev
Russia
4 D. Khotulev
J. Palacios Santos
Colombia
6 J. Palacios Santos
F. Moufi
Morocco
18 F. Moufi
E. Bolotov
Substitution
Russia
57 E. Bolotov
R. Kul
Substitution
Russia
78 R. Kul
J. Thompson
Chile
16 J. Thompson
D. Puebla
Substitution
Argentina
8 D. Puebla
R. Golybin
27 R. Golybin
G. Guzina
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
30 G. Guzina

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 04, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 23 · Regular Season
Stadium
VTB Arena (Moskva)
Capacity
26319
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Aleksandr Bogdanov
Igor Demeshko
Artur Sagdiev

Statistics

Possession
DMO
59%
Orenburg
41%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 3
0 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 3
47 Dangerous attacks 45
64 Possession 36
3 Corners 1
20 Free kicks 6
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

2 Assists 2
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53
22 Throwins 19
2 Successful Dribbles 10
17 Successful Headers 16
5 Substitutions 5
2 Injuries 2
7 Goal Kicks 7
98 Ball Safe 68
10 Goal Attempts 5
6 Dribble Attempts 19

Attacking

102 Attacks 82

Possession

65 Long Passes 56
82 Successful Passes Percentage 75
545 Passes 298
446 Successful Passes 223
29 Successful Long Passes 32
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 57

Defensive

0 Saves 3
10 Interceptions 9
58 Duels Won 46
22 Tackles 13

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 13
3 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

0 Offsides 3
7 Fouls 17

Lineup

Starting XI ▼

40
Kurban Rasulov
Kurban Rasulov Goalkeeper
6
Roberto Fernandez
Roberto Fernandez Defender
2
Nicolás Marichal
Nicolás Marichal
Defender64'
7
Dmitri Skopintsev
Dmitri Skopintsev Defender
56
Leon Zaydenzal
Leon Zaydenzal Defender
57
David Ricardo
David Ricardo Defender
10
Bitello
Bitello Midfielder
91
Y. Gladyshev
Y. Gladyshev
Attacker71'
13
Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu
Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu Midfielder
11
Arthur Gomes
Arthur Gomes
Attacker57'
33
Ivan Sergeev
Ivan Sergeev Midfielder
17
U. Babaev
U. Babaev
Attacker57'
44
Rubens
Rubens Midfielder
60
Timofey Marinkin
Timofey Marinkin Midfielder
21
Anton Miranchuk
Anton Miranchuk
Midfielder64'
70
K. Tyukavin
K. Tyukavin Attacker

Starting XI ▼

1
B. Ovsyannikov
B. Ovsyannikov Goalkeeper
3
Danila Vedernikov
Danila Vedernikov Defender
32
Alexis Cantero
Alexis Cantero
Defender46'
4
D. Khotulev
D. Khotulev Defender
6
Jhon Alex Palacios
Jhon Alex Palacios Defender
18
Fahd Moufi
Fahd Moufi Defender
8
Damián Puebla
Damián Puebla Midfielder
37
Du Queiroz
Du Queiroz
Midfielder46'
2
16
J. Thompson
J. Thompson Midfielder
27
Renat Golybin
Renat Golybin Midfielder
57
E. Bolotov
E. Bolotov Midfielder
5
A. Tataev
A. Tataev
Defender89'
78
Ruslan Kul
Ruslan Kul Midfielder
33
Philipp Hilmer
Philipp Hilmer
Midfielder69'
30
G. Guzina
G. Guzina Attacker
9
M. Savelyev
M. Savelyev
Attacker76'

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
A. Tataev → E. Bolotov
10th Substitution
83'
Event
B. Ovsyannikov
Time wasting / 6th Yellowcard
76'
Event
M. Savelyev → G. Guzina
9th Substitution
Event
Y. Gladyshev → Bitello
8th Substitution
71'
69'
Event
Philipp Hilmer → Ruslan Kul
7th Substitution
66'
Event
Du Queiroz
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
Event
Anton Miranchuk → Timofey Marinkin
6th Substitution
64'
Event
Nicolás Marichal → Roberto Fernandez
5th Substitution
64'
Event
Bitello
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
61'
60'
Event
Renat Golybin
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Roberto Fernandez
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
58'
Event
U. Babaev → Ivan Sergeev
3rd Substitution
57'
Event
Arthur Gomes → Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu
4th Substitution
57'
51'
Event
Du Queiroz
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
46'
Event
Du Queiroz → Damián Puebla
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Alexis Cantero → Danila Vedernikov
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Fahd Moufi
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
K. Tyukavin
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
39'
36'
Event
Damián Puebla
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Fahd Moufi
Header / 1st Own Goal
29'
28'
Event
Jhon Alex Palacios
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Dmitri Skopintsev
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
25'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Orenburg exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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