Nacional vs Estrela Amadora Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio da Madeira Sat, 4 Apr - 2:30 PM
Liga Portugal
Nacional Nacional
2 Winner 0
Estrela Amadora Estrela Amadora
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 2:30 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Jesús Ramírez - 2'
Paulinho Bóia - 71'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Nacional and Estrela Amadora has officially finished, with the home side securing a comfortable 2-0 full-time victory. Nacional took control early, establishing a 1-0 lead by half-time, and added a second goal after the break to claim the win. Going into the fixture, Nacional were the clear pre-match favorites with a 49% implied win probability, compared to a 27% chance of a draw and 24% for an away upset. The final result was fully aligned with these pre-match market expectations. By securing the multi-goal victory, Nacional produced a significant performance deviation in their favor. On the pitch, overall play was quite evenly distributed; Estrela Amadora actually held a slight 51% possession advantage over Nacional's 49%. Expected goals (xG) data was not available for this fixture, meaning an exact outcome-to-xG alignment cannot be determined. Nevertheless, Nacional's attacking efficiency shift was deemed perfectly in line with standard expectations. The match was entirely decided by eleven-a-side play, as there were no red cards issued to either team, ensuring that regular tactical execution rather than disciplinary events dictated the final 2-0 outcome.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Nacional showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. da Silva Martins
M. da Silva Martins
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.82
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
J. Ferreira Gonçalves
J. Ferreira Gonçalves
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.82
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
P. Ribeiro
P. Ribeiro
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.82
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
R. Madeira
R. Madeira
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.82
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Nacional T. Carvalho Margarido
T. Carvalho Margarido
VS
Estrela Amadora J. Rodrigues Carromeu
J. Rodrigues Carromeu
0.75
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.05
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Famalicão Rank: 72 L
Estoril Rank: 69 L
Moreirense Rank: 67 D
Sporting Braga Rank: 81 L
Arouca Rank: 65 L
Porto Rank: 88 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Casa Pia Rank: 64 W
Rio Ave Rank: 62 L
Gil Vicente Rank: 70 D
AVS Rank: 55 D
Tondela Rank: 60 L
Vitória Guimarães Rank: 71 L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 2 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Nacional
49.04%
Draw
26.98%
Away Estrela Amadora
23.99%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.16
59.11
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nacional
Estrela Amadora
Power Score
63.16
59.11
League Position
15
14
Global Rank
373
498

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nacional — Opponent-weighted form score
Estrela Amadora — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nacional Estrela Amadora

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Nacional

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Estrela Amadora

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Nacional ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Estrela Amadora
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.22
24.51
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.51
36.22
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Nacional +1.18 Efficiency Index
vs
Estrela Amadora -1.18 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Nacional
Estrela Amadora
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Nacional ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Estrela Amadora
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Nacional Estrela Amadora
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Nacional Estrela Amadora
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Nacional
Estrela Amadora
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Nacional
vs
Estrela Amadora
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Nacional Estrela Amadora
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Nacional 0.46
Estrela Amadora 0.37
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Nacional Estrela Amadora
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Nacional 0.00
Estrela Amadora 0.06
Nacional
Estrela Amadora
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nacional Nacional Home
11 matches
Estrela Amadora Estrela Amadora Away
Match Record
3
Wins
6
2
Draws
2
6
Losses
3
Goals
7
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
7
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:04:27+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
K. Pereira Azarias
Brazil
1 K. Pereira Azarias
A. Núñez Duarte
Paraguay
16 A. Núñez Duarte
L. Rodrigues dos Santos
Brazil
34 L. Rodrigues dos Santos
J. Lima Cardoso
Brazil
38 J. Lima Cardoso
J. Mendes Gomes
Substitution
Portugal
5 J. Mendes Gomes
M. Baeza Pérez
Substitution
Spain
8 M. Baeza Pérez
C. Abidi
Tunisia
15 C. Abidi
I. Liziero Pereira
Substitution
Brazil
28 I. Liziero Pereira
G. Fonseca de Souza
Substitution
Brazil
27 G. Fonseca de Souza
J. Ramírez Díaz
Venezuela
9 J. Ramírez Díaz
P. Pereira da Silva
Brazil
11 P. Pereira da Silva
R. Ribeiro
Brazil
40 R. Ribeiro
B. Langa
Substitution
Mozambique
24 B. Langa
B. Schappo
Brazil
14 B. Schappo
L. Wiedthauper
Brazil
30 L. Wiedthauper
M. Scholze
Germany
21 M. Scholze
A. Mussolo Sola
Substitution
63 A. Mussolo Sola
K. Höög-Jansson
Sweden
6 K. Höög-Jansson
E. Doué
Substitution
France
39 E. Doué
I. Stoica
Substitution
Romania
10 I. Stoica
R. Pereira de Pinho
Substitution
Brazil
9 R. Pereira de Pinho
A. Marcus
Nigeria
99 A. Marcus

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 04, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estádio da Madeira
Capacity
5132
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Miguel Ângelo da Silva Martins
João António Ferreira Gonçalves
Pedro Ribeiro
Rui Madeira

Statistics

Possession
Nacional
48%
Estrela Amadora
52%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 0
16 Shots 11
35 Dangerous attacks 30
49 Possession 51
5 Corners 6
8 Free kicks 14
4 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

0 Hit Woodwork 1
8 Successful Headers 16
13 Goal Kicks 5
86 Ball Safe 85
9 Goal Attempts 6
1 Assists 0
4 Substitutions 5
5 Injuries 2
4 Successful Dribbles 11
25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 61
19 Throwins 24
16 Dribble Attempts 18

Attacking

0 Counter Attacks 1
88 Attacks 76
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

314 Passes 331
248 Successful Passes 257
10 Key Passes 6
79 Successful Passes Percentage 78
33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51
16 Successful Long Passes 33
49 Long Passes 65

Defensive

2 Interceptions 3
17 Tackles 18
36 Duels Won 56
2 Saves 2

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 16
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

1 Offsides 5
14 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : João António Ferreira Gonçalves

Starting XI ▼

1
Kaique
Kaique Goalkeeper
5
José Gomes
José Gomes Defender
24
L. Vallier
L. Vallier
Defender77'
16
Alan Nuñez
Alan Nuñez Defender
34
Léo Santos
Léo Santos Defender
38
Ze Vitor
Ze Vitor Defender
8
Miguel Baeza
Miguel Baeza Midfielder
10
Daniel Jr
Daniel Jr
Midfielder49'
15
Chiheb Labidi
Chiheb Labidi Midfielder
28
Liziero
Liziero Midfielder
22
Filipe Soares
Filipe Soares
Midfielder77'
9
Jesús Ramírez
Jesús Ramírez Attacker
11
Paulinho Bóia
Paulinho Bóia Attacker
27
Gabriel Veron
Gabriel Veron Attacker
33
Francisco Gonçalves
Francisco Gonçalves
Defender89'
Referee : João António Ferreira Gonçalves

Starting XI ▼

40
Renan Ribeiro
Renan Ribeiro Goalkeeper
14
Bernardo Schappo
Bernardo Schappo Defender
21
Max Scholze
Max Scholze Defender
24
Bruno Langa
Bruno Langa Defender
17
Jefferson Encada
Jefferson Encada
Defender75'
30
Luan Patrick
Luan Patrick Defender
6
Kevin Höög Jansson
Kevin Höög Jansson Midfielder
39
Eddy Doué
Eddy Doué Midfielder
20
Sydney van Hooijdonk
Sydney van Hooijdonk
Attacker74'
63
Alex Sola
Alex Sola Midfielder
28
Tom Moustier
Tom Moustier
Midfielder46'
9
Rodrigo Pinho
Rodrigo Pinho Attacker
7
Leandro Antonetti
Leandro Antonetti
Attacker85'
10
Ianis Stoica
Ianis Stoica Attacker
11
Jovane Cabral
Jovane Cabral
Attacker46'
99
Abraham Marcus
Abraham Marcus Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Paulinho Bóia
Time wasting / 7th Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Francisco Gonçalves → Gabriel Veron
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Daniel Jr
Simulation / 6th Yellowcard
86'
85'
Event
Leandro Antonetti → Rodrigo Pinho
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Jefferson Encada
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Alan Nuñez
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
78'
Event
L. Vallier → José Gomes
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Filipe Soares → Liziero
6th Substitution
77'
75'
Event
Jefferson Encada → Bruno Langa
5th Substitution
74'
Event
Sydney van Hooijdonk → Eddy Doué
4th Substitution
Event
Paulinho Bóia
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
71'
Event
Daniel Jr → Miguel Baeza
3rd Substitution
49'
46'
Event
Jovane Cabral → Ianis Stoica
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Tom Moustier → Alex Sola
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Léo Santos
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
45+3'
16'
Event
Rodrigo Pinho
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Jesús Ramírez
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
2'
1'
Event
Luan Patrick
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to CD Nacional after a concession by Renan Ribeiro.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Paulinho Bóia of CD Nacional receives a yellow card.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Sydney van Hooijdonk against Estrela.
90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Daniel Júnior from CD Nacional has a left-footed shot from the center of the box that is saved.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with CD Nacional winning 2-0 against Estrela.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Paulinho Bóia of CD Nacional.
90
Update Update
Jefferson Encada from Estrela wins a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Attempt Attempt
Abraham Marcus from Estrela misses the attempt with a left-footed shot from outside the box that goes too high. Jefferson Encada provided the assist.
90
Update Update
Chiheb Labidi from CD Nacional wins a free kick in the defensive half.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for CD Nacional: Francisco Gonçalves comes on for Gabriel Veron.
89
Attempt Attempt
Filipe Soares from CD Nacional misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box, sending it high and wide to the right. Paulinho Bóia assisted after a fast break.
88
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Júnior's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. He was assisted by Chuchu Ramírez.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Daniel Júnior from CD Nacional receives a yellow card.
86
Update Update
Daniel Júnior from CD Nacional is down, but the referee considers it a simulation.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Estrela: Leandro Antonetti comes on for Rodrigo Pinho.
84
Update Update
Foul committed by Chiheb Labidi of CD Nacional.
84
Update Update
Jefferson Encada from Estrela wins a free kick in the defensive half.
83
Corner Corner
Jovane Cabral from Estrela misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, sending it high and wide to the right. The chance was set up by Tom Moustier's cross after a corner.
82
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Zé Vítor from CD Nacional has a left-footed shot from outside the box that is saved.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Estrela after Léo Santos concedes.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jefferson Encada from Estrela receives a yellow card.
80
Update Update
Chuchu Ramírez of CD Nacional wins a free kick in the attacking half.
80
Update Update
Foul by Bernardo Schappo on Estrela.
78
Update Update
Foul committed by Daniel Júnior of CD Nacional.
78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alan Núñez of CD Nacional receives a yellow card.
78
Update Update
Max Scholze from Estrela wins a free kick on the left wing.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for CD Nacional: Lenny Vallier comes on for José Gomes due to an injury.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for CD Nacional: Filipe Soares comes on for Liziero.
77
Attempt Attempt
Jovane Cabral's header from the left side of the box is saved in the center of the goal by Kaique. The attempt was assisted by Tom Moustier's cross.
76
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Estrela after a concession by Liziero.
75
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to José Gomes from CD Nacional.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Estrela: Jefferson Encada comes on for Bruno Langa.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Estrela: Sydney van Hooijdonk comes on for Eddy Doué.
73
Update Update
Abraham Marcus is caught offside for Estrela.
71
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! CD Nacional leads 2-0 against Estrela. Paulinho Bóia scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom left corner, assisted by Léo Santos.
70
Update Update
Rodrigo Pinho is flagged for offside.
66
Update Update
Chuchu Ramírez of CD Nacional misses a header from the center of the box, sending it to the left. The attempt was assisted by Paulinho Bóia, who delivered a cross after a set piece situation.
65
Update Update
Paulinho Bóia from CD Nacional wins a free kick on the right wing.
65
Update Update
Foul committed by Tom Moustier of Estrela.
63
Attempt Attempt
Tom Moustier from Estrela attempts a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it goes close and misses to the left. Rodrigo Pinho provided the assist.
63
Attempt Attempt
Tom Moustier from Estrela attempts a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it goes close and misses to the left. Rodrigo Pinho provided the assist.
62
Update Update
Kaique from CD Nacional wins a free kick in the defensive half.
61
Attempt Attempt
Max Scholze's left-footed shot from outside the box is saved.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Estrela after a concession by José Gomes.
59
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Estrela after being conceded by Chiheb Labidi.
59
Corner Corner
Jovane Cabral from Estrela misses the attempt, sending a right-footed shot too high from the right side of the box after a corner.
59
Corner Corner
Jovane Cabral from Estrela misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, sending it too high after a corner.
58
Attempt Attempt
Jovane Cabral from Estrela hits the left post with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, assisted by Abraham Marcus during a fast break.
54
Attempt Attempt
Chiheb Labidi's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
54
Attempt Attempt
Chuchu Ramírez from CD Nacional misses a right-footed shot from outside the box to the right, assisted by Daniel Júnior.
53
Attempt Attempt
Chuchu Ramírez of CD Nacional has a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it is blocked. The assist came from José Gomes.
50
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Pinho's left-footed shot from the center of the box is saved by Kaique in the center of the goal. The attempt was assisted by Bernardo Schappo with a headed pass.
49
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Estrela after a concession by Zé Vítor.
49
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for CD Nacional: Daniel Júnior comes on for Miguel Baeza due to an injury.
47
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Bernardo Schappo from Estrela.
47
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Miguel Baeza of CD Nacional.
45
Corner Corner
CD Nacional wins a corner after Bruno Langa concedes.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
45
Corner Corner
CD Nacional wins a corner after Bruno Langa concedes.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Léo Santos of CD Nacional.
45
Update Update
Eddy Doué from Estrela wins a free kick in the attacking half.
45
Update Update
First half ends with CD Nacional leading 1-0 against Estrela.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Léo Santos from CD Nacional receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Estrela: Tom Moustier comes on for Alex Sola.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the match score at CD Nacional 1, Estrela 0.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Estrela: Jovane Cabral comes on for Ianis Stoica.
43
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Chiheb Labidi from CD Nacional.
40
Attempt Attempt
Paulinho Bóia's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Chiheb Labidi.
35
Update Update
Foul committed by Zé Vítor of CD Nacional.
35
Update Update
Rodrigo Pinho from Estrela wins a free kick in the defensive half.
33
Update Update
Estrela is called offside. Abraham Marcus is the player caught offside.
29
Update Update
Rodrigo Pinho is caught offside for Estrela.
28
Update Update
Foul committed by Léo Santos of CD Nacional.
28
Update Update
Foul committed by Léo Santos of CD Nacional.
28
Update Update
Renan Ribeiro from Estrela wins a free kick in the defensive half.
28
Update Update
Renan Ribeiro from Estrela wins a free kick in the defensive half.
27
Update Update
Zé Vítor's header from the center of the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Liziero's cross.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to CD Nacional after a concession by Kevin Höög Jansson.
27
Attempt Attempt
Zé Vítor's right-footed shot from a tough angle on the right is blocked.
26
Corner Corner
CD Nacional wins a corner after Max Scholze concedes.
25
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Eddy Doué of Estrela.
24
Update Update
Foul committed by Gabriel Veron of CD Nacional.
24
Update Update
Eddy Doué from Estrela wins a free kick in the defensive half.
23
Update Update
Chuchu Ramírez of CD Nacional is caught offside.
22
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Miguel Baeza of CD Nacional, who took a left-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box.
21
Update Update
Foul by Chuchu Ramírez of CD Nacional.
21
Update Update
Eddy Doué from Estrela wins a free kick in the defensive half.
21
Update Update
Rodrigo Pinho is caught offside for Estrela.
20
Corner Corner
Kevin Höög Jansson from Estrela takes a left-footed shot from outside the box after a direct free kick, but it misses just over the top right corner.
19
Update Update
Foul committed by Chiheb Labidi of CD Nacional.
19
Update Update
Alex Sola from Estrela wins a free kick in the attacking half.
18
Update Update
Foul by Alan Núñez of CD Nacional.
18
Update Update
Ianis Stoica from Estrela wins a free kick in the defensive half.
16
Update Update
CD Nacional is awarded a free kick in their defensive half.
16
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Rodrigo Pinho from Estrela receives a yellow card.
14
Update Update
Foul committed by Alan Núñez of CD Nacional.
14
Update Update
Ianis Stoica from Estrela wins a free kick in the defensive half.
12
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Pinho from Estrela has a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it is blocked.
11
Update Update
Foul committed by Zé Vítor of CD Nacional.
11
Update Update
Rodrigo Pinho from Estrela wins a free kick in the attacking half.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Estrela after Zé Vítor concedes.
8
Update Update
Foul committed by Zé Vítor of CD Nacional.
8
Update Update
Rodrigo Pinho from Estrela wins a free kick in the attacking half.
6
Update Update
Foul by Eddy Doué of Estrela.
6
Update Update
Liziero from CD Nacional wins a free kick on the left wing.
5
Corner Corner
CD Nacional wins a corner after Abraham Marcus concedes.
5
Corner Corner
Gabriel Veron from CD Nacional misses a right-footed shot from outside the box, just to the right, after a corner.
4
Update Update
Foul committed by Luan Patrick of Estrela.
4
Update Update
Paulinho Bóia from CD Nacional wins a free kick on the left wing.
2
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! CD Nacional leads 1-0 against Estrela as Chuchu Ramírez scores from a free kick with a right-footed shot into the top right corner.
1
Update Update
Foul committed by Luan Patrick of Estrela.
1
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Luan Patrick from Estrela receives a yellow card for a foul.
1
Update Update
Chuchu Ramírez of CD Nacional wins a free kick in the attacking half.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Nacional exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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