Dynamo Kyiv vs Karpaty Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky Sat, 4 Apr - 3:00 PM
Premier League
Dynamo Kyiv DYN
0 Winner 1
Karpaty Karpaty
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 3:00 PM
Round 22 Regular Season
|
Goal
Baboucarr Faal - 6'
Matviy Ponomarenko 90+4' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

The match is finished, with Dynamo Kyiv suffering a surprising 0-1 home defeat against Karpaty. The visitors took a 1-0 lead into halftime and successfully held onto that advantage until the final whistle. This result represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations in favor of Karpaty. Dynamo Kyiv entered the fixture as the decidedly stronger team, carrying a 62% implied

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Karpaty showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Panchyshyn
D. Panchyshyn
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.73
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
V. Dumenko
V. Dumenko
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.73
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Y. Povazhnyi
Y. Povazhnyi
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.73
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
E. Tsybulko
E. Tsybulko
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.73
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Dynamo Kyiv I. Kostyuk
I. Kostyuk
VS
Karpaty F. Fernández Díaz
F. Fernández Díaz
1.86
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.29
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Oleksandria Rank: 47 W
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: 43 W
Polissya Zhytomyr Rank: 61 W
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: 46 W
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: 45 W
Veres Rank: 46 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: 44 W
SK Poltava Rank: 34 W
Kudrivka Rank: 43 D
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: 52 L
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: 73 L
Polissya Zhytomyr Rank: 61 L
22
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
22 - 7 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dynamo Kyiv
61.95%
Draw
22.5%
Away Karpaty
15.55%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.8
52.49
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dynamo Kyiv
Karpaty
Power Score
65.8
52.49
League Position
4
8
Global Rank
294
676

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dynamo Kyiv — Opponent-weighted form score
Karpaty — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dynamo Kyiv Karpaty

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dynamo Kyiv

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Karpaty

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dynamo Kyiv ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Karpaty
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.69
21.57
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.57
20.69
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dynamo Kyiv -0.09 Efficiency Index
vs
Karpaty +0.09 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dynamo Kyiv
Karpaty
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dynamo Kyiv ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Karpaty
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dynamo Kyiv Karpaty
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dynamo Kyiv Karpaty
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dynamo Kyiv
Karpaty
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Dynamo Kyiv
vs
Karpaty
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Dynamo Kyiv Karpaty
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Dynamo Kyiv 0.14
Karpaty 0.19
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Dynamo Kyiv Karpaty
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Dynamo Kyiv 0.03
Karpaty 0.00
Dynamo Kyiv
Karpaty
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dynamo Kyiv DYN Home
31 matches
Karpaty Karpaty Away
Match Record
22
Wins
2
7
Draws
7
2
Losses
22
Goals
68
Goals Scored
23
23
Goals Conceded
68
+45
Goal Difference
-45
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:04:34+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-5-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
R. Neshcheret
Ukraine
35 R. Neshcheret
M. Korobov
Ukraine
13 M. Korobov
K. Bilova
Ukraine
40 K. Bilova
D. Popov
Ukraine
4 D. Popov
K. Vivcharenko
Ukraine
2 K. Vivcharenko
A. Yarmolenko
Substitution
Ukraine
7 A. Yarmolenko
O. Pikhalyonok
Substitution
Ukraine
8 O. Pikhalyonok
V. Brazhko
Ukraine
6 V. Brazhko
M. Shaparenko
Substitution
Ukraine
10 M. Shaparenko
B. Redushko
70 B. Redushko
M. Ponomarenko
Ukraine
11 M. Ponomarenko
N. Domchak
Ukraine
1 N. Domchak
R. Lyakh
Ukraine
73 R. Lyakh
V. Kholod
Ukraine
44 V. Kholod
V. Baboglo
Moldova
4 V. Baboglo
D. Miroshnichenko
Substitution
Ukraine
11 D. Miroshnichenko
M. Sapuga
Substitution
Ukraine
20 M. Sapuga
Y. Kostenko
Substitution
Ukraine
26 Y. Kostenko
B. Pereira da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
37 B. Pereira da Silva
A. Chachua
Ukraine
8 A. Chachua
X. Alkain Mitxelena
Substitution
Spain
70 X. Alkain Mitxelena
B. Faal
Gambia
99 B. Faal

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 04, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 22 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky
Capacity
40003
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Dmytro Panchyshyn
Volodymyr Dumenko
Yaroslav Povazhnyi
Evgen Tsybulko

Statistics

Possession
DYN
62%
Karpaty
38%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
10 Shots 6
69 Dangerous attacks 31
65 Possession 35
5 Corners 3
20 Free kicks 8
2 Yellow Cards 4
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

4 Goal Kicks 11
3 Substitutions 5

Attacking

101 Attacks 57

Defensive

2 Saves 4

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
11 Fouls 18

Lineup

Referee : Dmytro Panchyshyn

Starting XI ▼

35
Ruslan Neshcheret
Ruslan Neshcheret Goalkeeper
2
Kostyantyn Vivcharenko
Kostyantyn Vivcharenko Defender
4
Denys Popov
Denys Popov Defender
13
Maksym Korobov
Maksym Korobov Defender
40
Kristian Bilovar
Kristian Bilovar Defender
6
Volodymyr Brazhko
Volodymyr Brazhko Midfielder
7
Andriy Yarmolenko
Andriy Yarmolenko Midfielder
9
Nazar Voloshyn
Nazar Voloshyn
Midfielder59'
8
Oleksandr Pikhalyonok
Oleksandr Pikhalyonok Midfielder
29
Vitaliy Buyalskyi
Vitaliy Buyalskyi
Midfielder67'
10
Mykola Shaparenko
Mykola Shaparenko Midfielder
91
Mykola Mykhaylenko
Mykola Mykhaylenko
Midfielder59'
70
Bogdan Redushko
Bogdan Redushko Midfielder
11
Matviy Ponomarenko
Matviy Ponomarenko Attacker
Referee : Dmytro Panchyshyn

Starting XI ▼

1
Nazar Domchak
Nazar Domchak Goalkeeper
4
Vladyslav Baboglo
Vladyslav Baboglo Defender
11
Denys Miroshnichenko
Denys Miroshnichenko Defender
77
Oleksiy Sych
Oleksiy Sych
Defender66'
44
Vitaliy Kholod
Vitaliy Kholod Defender
73
Rostyslav Lyakh
Rostyslav Lyakh Defender
8
Ambrosiy Chachua
Ambrosiy Chachua Midfielder
20
Marko Sapuga
Marko Sapuga Midfielder
18
Eriki
Eriki
Midfielder66'
26
Yan Kostenko
Yan Kostenko Midfielder
10
Stênio
Stênio
Midfielder76'
37
Bruninho
Bruninho Midfielder
33
Artur Shakh
Artur Shakh
Midfielder76'
70
Xeber Alkain
Xeber Alkain Midfielder
7
Paulo Vitor
Paulo Vitor
Midfielder58'
99
Baboucarr Faal
Baboucarr Faal Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+9'
Event
Nazar Domchak
6th Yellowcard
90+9'
Event
7th Yellowcard
Event
Matviy Ponomarenko
Second Yellow Card / 1st Yellow/red Card
90+4'
90+4'
Event
Vitaliy Kholod
5th Yellowcard
Event
Matviy Ponomarenko
Var
85'
Event
Matviy Ponomarenko
4th Yellowcard
84'
76'
Event
Artur Shakh → Bruninho
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Stênio → Yan Kostenko
8th Substitution
73'
Event
Bruninho
3rd Yellowcard
Event
Vitaliy Buyalskyi   → Oleksandr Pikhalyonok
6th Substitution
67'
66'
Event
Eriki → Marko Sapuga
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Oleksiy Sych → Denys Miroshnichenko
5th Substitution
Event
Nazar Voloshyn → Andriy Yarmolenko
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Mykola Mykhaylenko → Mykola Shaparenko
2nd Substitution
59'
58'
Event
Paulo Vitor → Xeber Alkain
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
29'
Event
Denys Miroshnichenko
2nd Yellowcard
Event
Volodymyr Brazhko 
1st Yellowcard
26'
6'
Event
Baboucarr Faal
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Karpaty exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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