Grazer AK vs Blau-Weiß Linz Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Merkur Arena Sat, 4 Apr - 3:00 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
Grazer AK GAK
2 Winner 1
Blau-Weiß Linz BWL
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 3:00 PM
Round 3 Relegation Round
Alexander Hofleitner - 39' (P)
Ramiz Harakate - 79'
Goal
|
Goal
Ronivaldo - 62'

CONTEXT

The match between Grazer AK and Blau-Weiß Linz has finished, concluding with a 2-1 full-time victory for the home side. Grazer AK established an early advantage, holding a 1-0 lead at half-time before eventually securing the win. Pre-match market probabilities positioned Grazer AK as the favorites with a 39.9% chance of winning, compared to a 31.3% likelihood of a draw and 28.9% for an away victory. Because Grazer AK entered as the stronger team, the final outcome aligned directly with the pre-match market. However, securing the victory still required Grazer AK to overcome a significant deviation level of 60.1%. In terms of match flow, the home side controlled the tempo by holding 59% of the possession, leaving Blau-Weiß Linz to operate with 41% of the ball. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, meaning it could not be mathematically determined if the result was consistent with overall chance creation. The overall efficiency shift of the match remained in line with expectations. Furthermore, the game was played without any

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Grazer AK showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Hameter
M. Hameter
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.04
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.39
M. El Sadany
M. El Sadany
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.04
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.39
P. Csobadi
P. Csobadi
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.04
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.39
J. Schnur
J. Schnur
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.04
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.39
Grazer AK F. Feldhofer
F. Feldhofer
VS
Blau-Weiß Linz M. Köllner
M. Köllner
1.31
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.69
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
WSG Tirol Rank: 54 W
Wolfsberger AC Rank: 62 W
WSG Tirol Rank: 54 L
Ried Rank: 52 W
Hartberg Rank: 59 L
Salzburg Rank: 68 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ried Rank: 52 W
Rheindorf Altach Rank: 52 L
Hartberg Rank: 59 D
WSG Tirol Rank: 54 L
Sturm Graz Rank: 68 L
Wolfsberger AC Rank: 59 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Grazer AK
39.9%
Draw
31.25%
Away Blau-Weiß Linz
28.85%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
52.48
47.73
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Grazer AK
Blau-Weiß Linz
Power Score
52.48
47.73
League Position
11
12
Global Rank
677
814

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Grazer AK — Opponent-weighted form score
Blau-Weiß Linz — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Grazer AK Blau-Weiß Linz

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Grazer AK

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Blau-Weiß Linz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Grazer AK ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Blau-Weiß Linz
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.08
24.02
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.02
20.08
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Grazer AK -0.31 Efficiency Index
vs
Blau-Weiß Linz +0.31 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Grazer AK
Blau-Weiß Linz
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Grazer AK ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Blau-Weiß Linz
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Grazer AK Blau-Weiß Linz
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Grazer AK Blau-Weiß Linz
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Grazer AK
Blau-Weiß Linz
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Grazer AK
vs
Blau-Weiß Linz
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Grazer AK Blau-Weiß Linz
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Grazer AK 0.27
Blau-Weiß Linz 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Grazer AK Blau-Weiß Linz
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Grazer AK 0.03
Blau-Weiß Linz 0.05
Grazer AK
Blau-Weiß Linz
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Grazer AK GAK Home
4 matches
Blau-Weiß Linz BWL Away
Match Record
2
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
2
Goals
7
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
7
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:04:45+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
F. Stolz
Austria
12 F. Stolz
B. Owusu
France
82 B. Owusu
D. Pines
2 D. Pines
L. Vraa-Jensen
Denmark
3 L. Vraa-Jensen
M. Olesen
Luxembourg
6 M. Olesen
J. Italiano
Substitution
Australia
14 J. Italiano
T. Schriebl
Substitution
Austria
20 T. Schriebl
C. Lichtenberger
Substitution
Austria
10 C. Lichtenberger
L. Klassen
Substitution
Russia
32 L. Klassen
R. Harakaté
France
22 R. Harakaté
A. Hofleitner
Substitution
Austria
25 A. Hofleitner
N. Mantl
Germany
58 N. Mantl
D. Bumberger
Substitution
Austria
23 D. Bumberger
F. Strauss
Austria
2 F. Strauss
M. Maranda
Austria
15 M. Maranda
A. Pasic
Austria
17 A. Pasic
D. Reiter
Austria
29 D. Reiter
A. Briedl
Austria
19 A. Briedl
C. Cvetko
Substitution
Austria
14 C. Cvetko
N. Maier
Substitution
Switzerland
30 N. Maier
S. Seidl
Substitution
Austria
20 S. Seidl
S. Weissman
Israel
18 S. Weissman

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 04, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 3 · Relegation Round
Stadium
Merkur Arena
Capacity
16764
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Markus Hameter
Mohamed El Sadany
Patrick Csobadi
Julian Schnur

Statistics

Possession
GAK
58%
BWL
42%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 2
5 Shots 2
37 Dangerous attacks 37
59 Possession 41
4 Corners 0
12 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

7 Goal Attempts 6
86 Ball Safe 55
1 Penalties 0
25 Throwins 27
1 Assists 1
20 Dribble Attempts 15
5 Substitutions 4
11 Goal Kicks 10
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 13
9 Successful Dribbles 2

Attacking

98 Attacks 110
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

5 Key Passes 7
80 Successful Passes Percentage 69
423 Successful Passes 249
528 Passes 362
87 Long Passes 60
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 30
40 Successful Long Passes 18

Defensive

20 Tackles 22
3 Saves 0
8 Interceptions 14
54 Duels Won 48

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 9
3 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
9 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Markus Hameter

Starting XI ▼

12
Franz Stolz
Franz Stolz Goalkeeper
2
Donovan Pines
Donovan Pines Defender
3
Ludwig Vraa-Jensen
Ludwig Vraa-Jensen Defender
82
Beres Owusu
Beres Owusu Defender
6
Mathias Olesen
Mathias Olesen Midfielder
10
Christian Lichtenberger
Christian Lichtenberger Midfielder
7
Murat Satin
Murat Satin
Midfielder72'
14
Jacob Italiano
Jacob Italiano Midfielder
28
Dominik Frieser
Dominik Frieser
Attacker89'
20
Thorsten Schriebl
Thorsten Schriebl Midfielder
8
Tobias Koch
Tobias Koch
Midfielder61'
32
Leon Klassen
Leon Klassen Midfielder
4
Martin Kreuzriegler
Martin Kreuzriegler
Defender89'
22
Ramiz Harakate
Ramiz Harakate Attacker
25
Alexander Hofleitner
Alexander Hofleitner Attacker
11
Mark Grosse
Mark Grosse
Attacker72'
Referee : Markus Hameter

Starting XI ▼

58
Nico Mantl
Nico Mantl Goalkeeper
2
Fabio Varesi-Strauss
Fabio Varesi-Strauss Defender
15
Manuel Maranda
Manuel Maranda Defender
17
Alem Pasic
Alem Pasic Defender
23
David Bumberger
David Bumberger Defender
60
Simon Pirkl
Simon Pirkl
Defender46'
29
Dominik Reiter
Dominik Reiter Defender
14
Christopher Cvetko
Christopher Cvetko Midfielder
9
Ronivaldo
Ronivaldo
Attacker46'
19
Alexander Briedl
Alexander Briedl Midfielder
30
Nico Maier
Nico Maier Midfielder
11
João Luiz
João Luiz
Midfielder83'
18
Shon Weissman
Shon Weissman Attacker
20
Simon Seidl
Simon Seidl Attacker
6
Mamadou Fofana
Mamadou Fofana
Midfielder73'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Alem Pasic
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Martin Kreuzriegler → Leon Klassen
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Dominik Frieser → Jacob Italiano
8th Substitution
89'
83'
Event
João Luiz → Nico Maier
7th Substitution
Event
Ramiz Harakate
3rd Yellowcard
79'
Event
Ramiz Harakate
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
79'
73'
Event
Mamadou Fofana → Simon Seidl
6th Substitution
Event
Mark Grosse → Alexander Hofleitner
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Murat Satin → Christian Lichtenberger
5th Substitution
72'
62'
Event
Ronivaldo
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
62'
Event
Shon Weissman
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Tobias Koch → Thorsten Schriebl
3rd Substitution
61'
46'
Event
Ronivaldo → Christopher Cvetko
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Simon Pirkl → David Bumberger
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Alexander Hofleitner
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
45+1'
Event
Alexander Hofleitner
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
39'
Event
Ramiz Harakate
Penalty awarded
38'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Grazer AK exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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