WSG Tirol vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Tivoli Stadion Tirol Sat, 4 Apr - 3:00 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
WSG Tirol WSG
3 Winner 1
Wolfsberger AC WAC
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 3:00 PM
Round 3 Relegation Round
Valentino Müller - 59' (P)
Ademola Ola-Adebomi - 77'
Moritz Wels - 90+4'
Goal
|
Goal
Jessic Ngankam - 9'

CONTEXT

The match between WSG Tirol and Wolfsberger AC has finished, with WSG Tirol securing a 3-1 victory. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations in favor of WSG Tirol. Going into the game, Wolfsberger AC was considered the marginally stronger team with a 36.4% probability of winning, compared to the home side's 35.9% and a 27.8% chance of a draw. Consequently, the final outcome did not align with the pre-match market. Expected goals (xG) data was not available for this fixture, meaning it is impossible to evaluate if the outcome aligned with underlying chance creation. However, possession metrics show that Wolfsberger AC controlled the ball more often, finishing with 54% possession compared to WSG Tirol's 46%. Despite trailing 1-0 at half-time, WSG Tirol mounted a successful second-half comeback. The match was played without any red cards to alter the numerical balance or impact the game's trajectory. Furthermore, the efficiency shift throughout the contest remained completely in line with general expectations, highlighting a clinical finishing display by the home side to overturn the deficit and claim the unexpected win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: WSG Tirol showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
T. Kaplan
T. Kaplan
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.04
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.39
G. Bognar
G. Bognar
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.04
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.39
D. Pfister
D. Pfister
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.04
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.39
A. Harkam
A. Harkam
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.04
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.39
WSG Tirol P. Semlic
P. Semlic
VS
Wolfsberger AC I. Atalan
I. Atalan
1.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.81
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Grazer AK Rank: 50 L
Ried Rank: 51 L
Grazer AK Rank: 52 W
Blau-Weiß Linz Rank: 48 W
Ried Rank: 52 D
Sturm Graz Rank: 68 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rheindorf Altach Rank: 54 D
Grazer AK Rank: 48 L
LASK Linz Rank: 64 L
Sturm Graz Rank: 68 D
SK Rapid Rank: 61 L
Blau-Weiß Linz Rank: 48 L
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 7 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home WSG Tirol
35.88%
Draw
27.75%
Away Wolfsberger AC
36.37%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
53.78
58.82
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
WSG Tirol
Wolfsberger AC
Power Score
53.78
58.82
League Position
7
10
Global Rank
653
503

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
WSG Tirol — Opponent-weighted form score
Wolfsberger AC — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) WSG Tirol Wolfsberger AC

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

WSG Tirol

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Wolfsberger AC

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

WSG Tirol ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Wolfsberger AC
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
51.52
18.24
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.24
51.52
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
WSG Tirol +2.59 Efficiency Index
vs
Wolfsberger AC -2.59 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
WSG Tirol
Wolfsberger AC
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

WSG Tirol ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Wolfsberger AC
Created Set-piece attacking threat
WSG Tirol Wolfsberger AC
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
WSG Tirol Wolfsberger AC
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
WSG Tirol
Wolfsberger AC
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
WSG Tirol
vs
Wolfsberger AC
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
WSG Tirol Wolfsberger AC
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
WSG Tirol 0.39
Wolfsberger AC 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
WSG Tirol Wolfsberger AC
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
WSG Tirol 0.03
Wolfsberger AC 0.06
WSG Tirol
Wolfsberger AC
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 20 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

WSG Tirol WSG Home
20 matches
Wolfsberger AC WAC Away
Match Record
7
Wins
6
7
Draws
7
6
Losses
7
Goals
41
Goals Scored
35
35
Goals Conceded
41
+6
Goal Difference
-6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:04:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Stejskal
Czech Republic
40 A. Stejskal
M. Boras
Croatia
23 M. Boras
J. Lawrence
Germany
5 J. Lawrence
D. Kubatta
Germany
14 D. Kubatta
J. Naschberger
Substitution
Austria
17 J. Naschberger
V. Müller
Austria
4 V. Müller
M. Taferner
Austria
30 M. Taferner
B. Böckle
Austria
20 B. Böckle
M. Wels
Austria
37 M. Wels
N. Frederiksen
Substitution
Denmark
8 N. Frederiksen
A. Ola-Adebomi
Substitution
England
9 A. Ola-Adebomi
N. Polster
Austria
12 N. Polster
R. Renner
Austria
77 R. Renner
N. Wimmer
Austria
37 N. Wimmer
F. Wohlmuth
Austria
31 F. Wohlmuth
B. Matić
Serbia
2 B. Matić
E. Kujovic
Montenegro
23 E. Kujovic
M. Sulzner
Substitution
Austria
30 M. Sulzner
D. Avdijaj
Substitution
Kosovo
10 D. Avdijaj
D. Zukić
Serbia
20 D. Zukić
A. Gattermayer
Substitution
Austria
7 A. Gattermayer
J. Ngankam
Germany
24 J. Ngankam

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 04, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 3 · Relegation Round
Stadium
Tivoli Stadion Tirol
Capacity
16008
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Thomas Kaplan
Gerald Bognar
Daniel Pfister
Alexander Harkam

Statistics

Possession
WSG
49%
WAC
51%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
6 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 0
54 Dangerous attacks 37
46 Possession 54
5 Corners 7
14 Free kicks 8

Match Overview

2 Assists 1
59 Ball Safe 78
3 Goal Kicks 8
11 Successful Dribbles 2
17 Throwins 15
1 Penalties 0
1 Hit Woodwork 1
69 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
12 Goal Attempts 6
3 Substitutions 3
16 Dribble Attempts 4

Attacking

4 Big Chances Missed 1
99 Attacks 84

Possession

14 Key Passes 7
25 Successful Long Passes 44
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 56
362 Passes 420
293 Successful Passes 333
81 Successful Passes Percentage 79
49 Long Passes 79

Defensive

7 Interceptions 5
2 Saves 3
47 Duels Won 41
8 Tackles 16

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 4
18 Total Crosses 17

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
8 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Alexander Harkam

Starting XI ▼

40
Adam Stejskal
Adam Stejskal Goalkeeper
5
Jamie Lawrence
Jamie Lawrence Defender
14
David Kubatta
David Kubatta Defender
23
Marco Boras
Marco Boras Defender
4
Valentino Müller
Valentino Müller Midfielder
17
Johannes Naschberger
Johannes Naschberger Midfielder
6
Lukas Sulzbacher
Lukas Sulzbacher
Defender60'
20
Benjamin Böckle
Benjamin Böckle Midfielder
30
Matthäus Taferner
Matthäus Taferner Midfielder
8
N. Frederiksen
N. Frederiksen Attacker
10
Thomas Sabitzer
Thomas Sabitzer
Attacker78'
9
Ademola Ola-Adebomi
Ademola Ola-Adebomi Attacker
16
Lukas Hinterseer
Lukas Hinterseer
Attacker90'
37
Moritz Wels
Moritz Wels Attacker
Referee : Alexander Harkam

Starting XI ▼

12
Nikolas Polster
Nikolas Polster Goalkeeper
2
Boris Matic
Boris Matic Defender
31
Fabian Wohlmuth
Fabian Wohlmuth Defender
37
Nicolas Wimmer
Nicolas Wimmer Defender
77
Rene Renner
Rene Renner Defender
7
Angelo Gattermayer
Angelo Gattermayer Midfielder
9
Erik Kojzek
Erik Kojzek
Attacker83'
10
Donis Avdijaj
Donis Avdijaj Midfielder
17
David Atanga
David Atanga
Attacker69'
20
Dejan Zukic
Dejan Zukic Midfielder
23
Emin Kujovic
Emin Kujovic Midfielder
30
Marco Sulzner
Marco Sulzner Midfielder
34
Emmanuel Agyemang
Emmanuel Agyemang
Midfielder83'
24
Jessic Ngankam
Jessic Ngankam Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Moritz Wels
Goal awarded
90+5'
Event
Moritz Wels
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+4'
Event
Lukas Hinterseer → Ademola Ola-Adebomi
6th Substitution
90'
83'
Event
Erik Kojzek → Angelo Gattermayer
5th Substitution
83'
Event
Emmanuel Agyemang → Marco Sulzner
4th Substitution
Event
Thomas Sabitzer → N. Frederiksen
3rd Substitution
78'
Event
Ademola Ola-Adebomi
Header / 2nd Goal
77'
69'
Event
David Atanga → Donis Avdijaj
2nd Substitution
Event
Lukas Sulzbacher → Johannes Naschberger
1st Substitution
60'
Event
Valentino Müller
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
59'
1ST-HALF
9'
Event
Jessic Ngankam
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: WSG Tirol exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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