Slaven Koprivnica vs Rijeka Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Gradski Stadion Sat, 4 Apr - 3:45 PM
1. HNL
Slaven Koprivnica Slaven Koprivnica
0 Winner 2
Rijeka Rijeka
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 3:45 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
|
Goal
Toni Fruk - 5' (P), 14'

CONTEXT

The match between Slaven Koprivnica and Rijeka has officially finished, with Rijeka securing a solid 2-0 away victory. All the scoring occurred in the first half, as the visitors established their 2-0 advantage by the halftime whistle and maintained it until the end. Going into the game, Rijeka was the pre-match favorite with a 40.4% implied probability of winning, while a Slaven Koprivnica win and a draw both sat at a 29.8% probability. The away victory meant the result aligned perfectly with the pre-match market. Rijeka’s overall performance produced a significant deviation level, underlining their pre-match status as the stronger team and justifying the market confidence. Despite the loss, Slaven Koprivnica actually controlled the majority of the ball, finishing with 55% possession compared to Rijeka's 45%. Expected goals (xG) data was not available for this fixture, so it cannot be determined if the final outcome was consistent with underlying chance creation. However, the overall efficiency shift was completely in line with expectations. Furthermore, there were no red cards issued to either side, allowing Rijeka to smoothly navigate the second half and collect all three points without any numerical disruption.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Rijeka showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Čulina
A. Čulina
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
F. Krznarić
F. Krznarić
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
P. Krmar
P. Krmar
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
Luka Slišković
Luka Slišković
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.67
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
Slaven Koprivnica M. Gregurina
M. Gregurina
VS
Rijeka V. Sánchez del Amo
V. Sánchez del Amo
1.42
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.63
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Osijek Rank: 62 D
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 78 L
Gorica Rank: 63 D
Istra 1961 Rank: 65 W
Vukovar Rank: 55 D
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 60 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gorica Rank: 61 L
Istra 1961 Rank: 63 L
Vukovar Rank: 55 W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 60 W
Hajduk Split Rank: 72 L
Varaždin Rank: 64 W
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 21 - 36
36

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Slaven Koprivnica
29.8%
Draw
29.8%
Away Rijeka
40.39%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.87
70.76
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Slaven Koprivnica
Rijeka
Power Score
63.87
70.76
League Position
6
3
Global Rank
346
173

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Slaven Koprivnica — Opponent-weighted form score
Rijeka — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Slaven Koprivnica Rijeka

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Slaven Koprivnica

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rijeka

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Slaven Koprivnica ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rijeka
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.18
29.67
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.67
37.18
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Slaven Koprivnica +0.77 Efficiency Index
vs
Rijeka -0.77 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Slaven Koprivnica
Rijeka
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Slaven Koprivnica ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rijeka
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Slaven Koprivnica Rijeka
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Slaven Koprivnica Rijeka
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Slaven Koprivnica
Rijeka
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Slaven Koprivnica
vs
Rijeka
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Slaven Koprivnica Rijeka
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Slaven Koprivnica 0.25
Rijeka 0.23
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Slaven Koprivnica Rijeka
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Slaven Koprivnica 0.04
Rijeka 0.00
Slaven Koprivnica
Rijeka
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 69 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Slaven Koprivnica Slaven Koprivnica Home
69 matches
Rijeka Rijeka Away
Match Record
12
Wins
36
21
Draws
21
36
Losses
12
Goals
59
Goals Scored
111
111
Goals Conceded
59
-52
Goal Difference
+52
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:04:58+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-1-3-2
Pitch
O. Hadzikic
Austria
31 O. Hadzikic
F. Krušelj
Substitution
Croatia
18 F. Krušelj
T. Božić
Croatia
6 T. Božić
D. Kovačić
Croatia
4 D. Kovačić
A. Jakir
Substitution
Croatia
3 A. Jakir
I. Ćubelić
Substitution
Croatia
15 I. Ćubelić
L. Crepulja
Croatia
21 L. Crepulja
F. Mažar
Croatia
17 F. Mažar
J. Mitrović
Substitution
Croatia
11 J. Mitrović
M. Dabro
Croatia
7 M. Dabro
A. Grgić
Substitution
Croatia
27 A. Grgić
M. Zlomislić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
13 M. Zlomislić
M. Devetak
Serbia
34 M. Devetak
S. Radeljić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
6 S. Radeljić
A. Majstorović
Croatia
45 A. Majstorović
A. Oreč
Croatia
22 A. Oreč
A. Barco Del Solar
Peru
55 A. Barco Del Solar
A. Gojak
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
14 A. Gojak
T. Dantas
Portugal
26 T. Dantas
M. Ndockyt
Substitution
Republic of the Congo
20 M. Ndockyt
T. Fruk
Substitution
Croatia
10 T. Fruk
D. Adu-Adjei
Substitution
England
18 D. Adu-Adjei

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 04, 2026, 03:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium
Gradski Stadion
Capacity
3205
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ante Čulina
Filip Krznarić
Patrik Krmar
Luka Slišković

Statistics

Possession
Slaven Koprivnica
55%
Rijeka
45%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 5
8 Shots 0
69 Dangerous attacks 47
55 Possession 45
5 Corners 6
15 Free kicks 11
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

1 Hit Woodwork 1
0 Penalties 1
0 Assists 1
8 Goal Kicks 9
8 Successful Dribbles 4
27 Throwins 18
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
5 Substitutions 4
16 Dribble Attempts 11

Attacking

104 Attacks 90
2 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

431 Passes 359
84 Successful Passes Percentage 78
364 Successful Passes 280
63 Long Passes 77
63 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
40 Successful Long Passes 29

Defensive

2 Saves 2
15 Tackles 17
3 Interceptions 5
51 Duels Won 41

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 5
26 Total Crosses 13

Discipline

3 Offsides 2
12 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Ante Čulina

Starting XI ▼

31
Osman Hadzikic
Osman Hadzikic Goalkeeper
3
Antonio Jakir
Antonio Jakir Defender
22
Filip Jovic
Filip Jovic
Defender71'
4
Dominik Kovacic
Dominik Kovacic Defender
6
Tomislav Bozic
Tomislav Bozic Defender
18
Filip Kruselj
Filip Kruselj Defender
33
Karlo Isasegi
Karlo Isasegi
Defender88'
15
Ivan Cubelic
Ivan Cubelic Midfielder
23
Igor Lepinjica
Igor Lepinjica
Midfielder58'
17
Filip Mažar
Filip Mažar Midfielder
21
Ljuban Crepulja
Ljuban Crepulja Midfielder
7
Marko Dabro
Marko Dabro Attacker
11
Josip Mitrovic
Josip Mitrovic Attacker
24
Leon Bošnjak
Leon Bošnjak
Midfielder72'
27
Alen Grgic
Alen Grgic Attacker
26
Gabrijel Sivalec
Gabrijel Sivalec
Attacker88'
Referee : Ante Čulina

Starting XI ▼

13
Martin Zlomislic
Martin Zlomislic Goalkeeper
6
Stjepan Radeljic
Stjepan Radeljic Defender
22
Ante Orec
Ante Orec Defender
34
Mladen Devetak
Mladen Devetak Defender
45
Ante Majstorovic
Ante Majstorovic Defender
10
Toni Fruk
Toni Fruk Midfielder
2
66
Branko Pavic
Branko Pavic
Midfielder81'
14
Amer Gojak
Amer Gojak Midfielder
11
Gabriel Rukavina
Gabriel Rukavina
Attacker73'
20
Merveil Ndockyt
Merveil Ndockyt Midfielder
23
Justas Lasickas
Justas Lasickas
Defender72'
26
Tiago Dantas
Tiago Dantas Midfielder
55
Alfonso Daniel Barco del Solar
Alfonso Daniel Barco del Solar Midfielder
18
Daniel Adu-Adjei
Daniel Adu-Adjei Attacker
77
Ante Matej Juric
Ante Matej Juric
Attacker89'

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Ante Matej Juric → Daniel Adu-Adjei
9th Substitution
Event
Karlo Isasegi → Filip Kruselj
7th Substitution
88'
Event
Gabrijel Sivalec → Alen Grgic
8th Substitution
88'
81'
Event
Alfonso Daniel Barco del Solar
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
81'
Event
Branko Pavic → Toni Fruk
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Gabriel Rukavina → Amer Gojak
5th Substitution
Event
Leon Bošnjak → Josip Mitrovic
3rd Substitution
72'
72'
Event
Justas Lasickas → Merveil Ndockyt
4th Substitution
Event
Filip Jovic → Antonio Jakir
2nd Substitution
71'
Event
Igor Lepinjica → Ivan Cubelic
1st Substitution
58'
1ST-HALF
14'
Event
Toni Fruk
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
5'
Event
Toni Fruk
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Rijeka exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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