FC Midtjylland vs Sønderjyske Fodbold Prediction, Preview and Stats

Denmark flag 2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
MCH Arena Sat, 4 Apr - 4:00 PM
Superliga
FC Midtjylland FCM
2 – 2
Sønderjyske Fodbold SON
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 4:00 PM
Round 3 Championship Round
Aral Şimşir - 12'
Darío Osorio - 58'
Goal
|
Goal
M. Haidara - 83'
O. Hyseni - 89'

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished in a 2-2 draw between FC Midtjylland and Sønderjyske Fodbold. The home side initially took control, securing a 1-0 lead going into halftime, but Sønderjyske fought back in the second half to force a share of the points. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, frustrating the stronger team, FC Midtjylland. The pre-match market heavily favored the hosts with a 65.3% probability of victory, while a draw was given just a 20.2% chance. Consequently, the final outcome was not market aligned. Sønderjyske Fodbold entered the fixture as clear underdogs with a mere 14.5% win probability. On the pitch, FC Midtjylland controlled the tempo, holding 55% of the possession compared to the visitors' 45%. Because expected goals (xG) data was not available for this fixture, it cannot be determined if the final outcome was strictly consistent with xG. However, overall scoring was in line with standard efficiency shifts. The match remained a pure tactical battle throughout, as there were no red cards for either side to unfairly impact the result.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: FC Midtjylland showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
O. Kronlykke
O. Kronlykke
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.74
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.53
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
J. Karlsen
J. Karlsen
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.74
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.53
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
M. Markus
M. Markus
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.74
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.53
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
J. Maae
J. Maae
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.74
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.53
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
FC Midtjylland M. Tullberg
M. Tullberg
VS
Sønderjyske Fodbold T. Nørgaard
T. Nørgaard
1.86
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.92
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Viborg FF Rank: 64 D
Nordsjælland Rank: 63 L
Brøndby IF Rank: 65 D
Silkeborg IF Rank: 58 W
Odense BK Rank: 57 W
FC København Rank: 67 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nordsjælland Rank: 65 L
AGF Rank: 70 D
Odense BK Rank: 57 W
Brøndby IF Rank: 65 D
Silkeborg IF Rank: 58 W
Nordsjælland Rank: 66 L
24
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
24 - 9 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FC Midtjylland
65.3%
Draw
20.19%
Away Sønderjyske Fodbold
14.52%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
78.87
62.09
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC Midtjylland
Sønderjyske Fodbold
Power Score
78.87
62.09
League Position
2
3
Global Rank
68
399

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FC Midtjylland — Opponent-weighted form score
Sønderjyske Fodbold — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FC Midtjylland Sønderjyske Fodbold

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FC Midtjylland

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sønderjyske Fodbold

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FC Midtjylland ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sønderjyske Fodbold
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.73
22.22
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.22
37.73
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FC Midtjylland +1.49 Efficiency Index
vs
Sønderjyske Fodbold -1.49 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FC Midtjylland
Sønderjyske Fodbold
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FC Midtjylland ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sønderjyske Fodbold
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FC Midtjylland Sønderjyske Fodbold
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FC Midtjylland Sønderjyske Fodbold
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
FC Midtjylland
Sønderjyske Fodbold
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
FC Midtjylland
vs
Sønderjyske Fodbold
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
FC Midtjylland Sønderjyske Fodbold
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
FC Midtjylland 0.33
Sønderjyske Fodbold 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
FC Midtjylland Sønderjyske Fodbold
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
FC Midtjylland 0.05
Sønderjyske Fodbold 0.04
FC Midtjylland
Sønderjyske Fodbold
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 45 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FC Midtjylland FCM Home
45 matches
Sønderjyske Fodbold SON Away
Match Record
24
Wins
12
9
Draws
9
12
Losses
24
Goals
80
Goals Scored
59
59
Goals Conceded
80
+21
Goal Difference
-21
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:05:24+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
E. Olafsson
Iceland
16 E. Olafsson
O. Diao
Senegal
4 O. Diao
M. Erlić
Croatia
6 M. Erlić
M. Bech Sørensen
Denmark
22 M. Bech Sørensen
D. Osorio Osorio
Substitution
Chile
11 D. Osorio Osorio
P. Bravo Landazuri
Colombia
19 P. Bravo Landazuri
V. Byskov Andreasen
Substitution
Denmark
20 V. Byskov Andreasen
V. Jensen
Denmark
55 V. Jensen
J. Emefile
Substitution
38 J. Emefile
K. Cho
South Korea
10 K. Cho
D. Simsir
Substitution
Denmark
58 D. Simsir
M. Sorensen
Denmark
16 M. Sorensen
P. Kristensen
Substitution
Denmark
19 P. Kristensen
M. Jensen
Denmark
5 M. Jensen
M. Soulas
France
12 M. Soulas
S. Sylvest Wæver
Substitution
Denmark
3 S. Sylvest Wæver
A. Oggesen
Substitution
Denmark
22 A. Oggesen
T. Sommer
Denmark
26 T. Sommer
A. Lyng
Substitution
Denmark
11 A. Lyng
S. Haidara
31 S. Haidara
L. Qamili
Albania
15 L. Qamili
M. Hoppe
Substitution
United States
9 M. Hoppe

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 04, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark · Round 3 · Championship Round
Stadium
MCH Arena
Capacity
12152
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ole Kronlykke
Jacob Karlsen
Martin Markus
Jens Maae

Statistics

Possession
FCM
56%
SON
44%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 3
18 Shots 8
55 Dangerous attacks 40
55 Possession 45
9 Corners 5
15 Free kicks 14
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

5 Goal Kicks 14
16 Throwins 15
8 Dribble Attempts 11
2 Injuries 1
5 Successful Dribbles 5
2 Assists 2
0 Penalties 1
1 Hit Woodwork 0
63 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
4 Substitutions 5
90 Ball Safe 73
15 Goal Attempts 8

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 2
2 Counter Attacks 0
101 Attacks 79

Possession

364 Passes 298
76 Successful Passes Percentage 67
66 Long Passes 50
28 Successful Long Passes 11
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 22
15 Key Passes 7
276 Successful Passes 201

Defensive

2 Saves 2
8 Interceptions 9
13 Tackles 17
47 Duels Won 63

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 5
19 Total Crosses 22

Discipline

3 Offsides 3
15 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Jens Maae

Starting XI ▼

16
Elías Ólafsson
Elías Ólafsson Goalkeeper
4
Ousmane Diao
Ousmane Diao Defender
6
Martin Erlić
Martin Erlić Defender
22
Mads Bech Sørensen
Mads Bech Sørensen Defender
11
Darío Osorio
Darío Osorio Midfielder
29
Paulinho
Paulinho
Defender77'
19
Pedro Bravo
Pedro Bravo Midfielder
20
Valdemar Byskov
Valdemar Byskov Midfielder
3
Han-beom Lee
Han-beom Lee
Defender40'
55
Victor Bak
Victor Bak Midfielder
10
Gue-sung Cho
Gue-sung Cho Attacker
38
Julius Emefile
Julius Emefile Attacker
41
Mikel Gogorza
Mikel Gogorza
Attacker72'
58
Aral Şimşir
Aral Şimşir Attacker
7
Franculino
Franculino
Attacker72'
Referee : Jens Maae

Starting XI ▼

16
Marcus Bundgaard
Marcus Bundgaard Goalkeeper
3
S. Wæver
S. Wæver Defender
20
T. Klysner
T. Klysner
Attacker62'
5
M. Jensen
M. Jensen Defender
12
M. Soulas
M. Soulas Defender
19
Pachanga Cassoma Kristensen
Pachanga Cassoma Kristensen Defender
13
D. Wilkins
D. Wilkins
Defender72'
11
A. Lyng
A. Lyng Midfielder
24
O. Hyseni
O. Hyseni
Attacker46'
15
Lirim Qamili
Lirim Qamili Midfielder
22
A. Oggesen
A. Oggesen Midfielder
6
R. Vinderslev
R. Vinderslev
Midfielder46'
26
T. Sommer
T. Sommer Midfielder
31
M. Haidara
M. Haidara Midfielder
9
M. Hoppe
M. Hoppe Attacker
7
S. Emini
S. Emini
Midfielder81'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
D. Wilkins
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
89'
Event
O. Hyseni
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
87'
Event
Var
83'
Event
M. Haidara
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
81'
Event
S. Emini → M. Hoppe
9th Substitution
Event
Paulinho → Darío Osorio
8th Substitution
77'
Event
Mikel Gogorza → Julius Emefile
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Franculino → Aral Şimşir
5th Substitution
72'
72'
Event
D. Wilkins → Pachanga Cassoma Kristensen
7th Substitution
Event
Ousmane Diao
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
69'
67'
Event
Lirim Qamili
GoalkeeperSave
62'
Event
T. Klysner → S. Wæver
4th Substitution
Event
Darío Osorio
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
58'
48'
Event
Pachanga Cassoma Kristensen
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
46'
Event
O. Hyseni → A. Lyng
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
R. Vinderslev → A. Oggesen
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Gue-sung Cho
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
44'
Event
Han-beom Lee → Valdemar Byskov
1st Substitution
40'
25'
Event
A. Lyng
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Aral Şimşir
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
12'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: FC Midtjylland exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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