OH Leuven vs Standard Liège Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
King Power at Den Dreef Stadion Sat, 4 Apr - 4:15 PM
Pro League
OH Leuven OHL
1 Winner 3
Standard Liège STL
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 4:15 PM
Round 1 Conference League Play-off Group
Henok Teklab - 48'
Goal
|
Goal
Dennis Eckert Ayensa - 65', 90+7' (P)
Ewoud Pletinckx - 80' (Own Goal)

CONTEXT

The match between OH Leuven and Standard Liège has concluded, with the visiting side claiming a decisive 3-1 victory. After a tightly contested first half that ended completely scoreless, Standard Liège found their attacking rhythm to secure the win in the second forty-five minutes. Despite the final scoreline, OH Leuven actually controlled the majority of the ball, finishing with 55% possession compared to Standard Liège's 45%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, so it cannot be determined if the result aligned with the underlying chance quality. Furthermore, the match was played without any severe disciplinary issues, as zero red cards were issued to impact either team's tactical approach. The final result did not align with the pre-match market, which originally favored an OH Leuven win at 43.6%. Standard Liège entered the contest with just a 27.7% implied probability of winning, alongside a 28.7% chance of a draw. By overcoming these odds, the visitors delivered a significant deviation from pre-game expectations. Even without xG metrics to reference, Standard Liège's overall goalscoring performance was perfectly in line with anticipated efficiency shifts, allowing them to comfortably upset the market and take all three points.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Standard Liège showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Ledda
M. Ledda
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.75
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
B. Verbeke
B. Verbeke
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.75
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
M. De Cuyper
M. De Cuyper
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.75
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
T. Vanpoucke
T. Vanpoucke
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.75
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
OH Leuven F. Mazzù
F. Mazzù
VS
Standard Liège V. Euvrard
V. Euvrard
1.24
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.38
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Antwerp Rank: 70 W
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 71 W
Westerlo Rank: 70 L
Anderlecht Rank: 73 L
Club Brugge Rank: 84 L
Dender Rank: 61 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Westerlo Rank: 69 D
Antwerp Rank: 70 D
Zulte-Waregem Rank: 64 W
La Louvière Rank: 68 D
Genk Rank: 77 W
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 85 D
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 7 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home OH Leuven
43.61%
Draw
28.73%
Away Standard Liège
27.66%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.12
68.58
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
OH Leuven
Standard Liège
Power Score
66.12
68.58
League Position
12
8
Global Rank
286
226

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
OH Leuven — Opponent-weighted form score
Standard Liège — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) OH Leuven Standard Liège

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

OH Leuven

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Standard Liège

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

OH Leuven ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Standard Liège
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.64
31.11
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.11
29.64
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
OH Leuven -0.13 Efficiency Index
vs
Standard Liège +0.13 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
OH Leuven
Standard Liège
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

OH Leuven ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Standard Liège
Created Set-piece attacking threat
OH Leuven Standard Liège
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
OH Leuven Standard Liège
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
OH Leuven
Standard Liège
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
OH Leuven
vs
Standard Liège
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
OH Leuven Standard Liège
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
OH Leuven 0.30
Standard Liège 0.30
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
OH Leuven Standard Liège
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
OH Leuven 0.08
Standard Liège 0.02
OH Leuven
Standard Liège
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 24 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

OH Leuven OHL Home
24 matches
Standard Liège STL Away
Match Record
9
Wins
8
7
Draws
7
8
Losses
9
Goals
26
Goals Scored
31
31
Goals Conceded
26
-5
Goal Difference
+5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:05:36+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
M. Prévôt
France
16 M. Prévôt
E. Pletinckx
Belgium
28 E. Pletinckx
N. Dussenne
Substitution
Belgium
3 N. Dussenne
R. Nyakossi
Switzerland
34 R. Nyakossi
H. Teklab
Germany
14 H. Teklab
S. Schrijvers
Substitution
Belgium
8 S. Schrijvers
B. Verstraete
Substitution
Belgium
4 B. Verstraete
T. Akimoto
Japan
30 T. Akimoto
T. Verlinden
Belgium
7 T. Verlinden
C. Ikwuemesi
Substitution
Nigeria
19 C. Ikwuemesi
Y. Maziz
Substitution
France
10 Y. Maziz
L. Pirard
Belgium
21 L. Pirard
J. Homawoo
Togo
24 J. Homawoo
D. Bates
Scotland
4 D. Bates
I. Hautekiet
Belgium
25 I. Hautekiet
G. Mortensen
Denmark
3 G. Mortensen
M. Ilaimaharitra
Substitution
Madagascar
23 M. Ilaimaharitra
C. Nielsen
Substitution
Denmark
94 C. Nielsen
H. Lawrence
England
18 H. Lawrence
R. Said Ahamada
Substitution
Comoros
17 R. Said Ahamada
A. Adnane
Substitution
Belgium
11 A. Adnane
T. NKada
Substitution
France
59 T. NKada

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 04, 2026, 04:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 1 · Conference League Play-off Group
Stadium
King Power at Den Dreef Stadion
Capacity
10020
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Massimiliano Ledda
Bert Verbeke
Michiel De Cuyper
Tom Vanpoucke

Statistics

Possession
OHL
55%
STL
45%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
1 Big Chances Created 2
14 Shots 12
46 Dangerous attacks 40
55 Possession 45
7 Corners 4
12 Free kicks 6

Match Overview

19 Throwins 15
0 Injuries 1
0 Penalties 1
5 Goal Attempts 9
90 Ball Safe 69
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53
15 Dribble Attempts 15
5 Successful Dribbles 8
1 Assists 1
7 Goal Kicks 12
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

91 Attacks 91
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

12 Key Passes 10
47 Successful Long Passes 22
77 Successful Passes Percentage 73
443 Passes 365
92 Long Passes 54
342 Successful Passes 265
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41

Defensive

11 Tackles 11
4 Saves 3
8 Interceptions 7

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 7
27 Total Crosses 17

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
7 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Bert Verbeke

Starting XI ▼

16
Maxence Prévot
Maxence Prévot Goalkeeper
3
Noë Dussenne
Noë Dussenne Defender
9
Abdoul Karim Traoré
Abdoul Karim Traoré
Attacker86'
28
Ewoud Pletinckx
Ewoud Pletinckx Defender
34
Roggerio Nyakossi
Roggerio Nyakossi Defender
4
Birger Verstraete
Birger Verstraete Midfielder
6
Wouter George
Wouter George
Midfielder67'
8
Siebe Schrijvers
Siebe Schrijvers Midfielder
33
Mathieu Maertens
Mathieu Maertens
Midfielder77'
14
Henok Teklab
Henok Teklab Midfielder
30
Takahiro Akimoto
Takahiro Akimoto Midfielder
7
Thibaud Verlinden
Thibaud Verlinden Attacker
10
Youssef Maziz
Youssef Maziz Attacker
24
Lukasz Lakomy
Lukasz Lakomy
Midfielder76'
19
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi Attacker
17
Kyan Vaesen
Kyan Vaesen
Attacker67'
Referee : Bert Verbeke

Starting XI ▼

21
Lucas Pirard
Lucas Pirard Goalkeeper
4
David Bates
David Bates Defender
24
Josué Homawoo
Josué Homawoo Defender
25
Ibe Hautekiet
Ibe Hautekiet Defender
3
Gustav Julius Mortensen
Gustav Julius Mortensen Midfielder
18
Henry Lawrence
Henry Lawrence Midfielder
23
Marco Ilaimaharitra
Marco Ilaimaharitra Midfielder
8
Nayel Mehssatou
Nayel Mehssatou
Defender88'
94
Casper Nielsen
Casper Nielsen Midfielder
27
Mohammed El Hankouri
Mohammed El Hankouri
Attacker81'
11
Adnane Abid
Adnane Abid Attacker
20
Ibrahim Karamoko
Ibrahim Karamoko
Defender81'
17
Rafiki Saïd
Rafiki Saïd Attacker
26
Bernard Nguene
Bernard Nguene
Attacker61'
59
Timothé Nkada
Timothé Nkada Attacker
10
Dennis Eckert Ayensa
Dennis Eckert Ayensa
Attacker60'
2

Events

2ND-HALF
90+7'
Event
Dennis Eckert Ayensa
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
88'
Event
Nayel Mehssatou → Marco Ilaimaharitra
10th Substitution
Event
Abdoul Karim Traoré → Noë Dussenne
9th Substitution
86'
81'
Event
Ibrahim Karamoko → Adnane Abid
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Mohammed El Hankouri → Casper Nielsen
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Ewoud Pletinckx
Left foot shot / 1st Own Goal
Event
Mathieu Maertens → Siebe Schrijvers
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Lukasz Lakomy → Youssef Maziz
5th Substitution
76'
70'
Event
Var
Event
Kyan Vaesen → Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Wouter George → Birger Verstraete
3rd Substitution
67'
65'
Event
Dennis Eckert Ayensa
Header / 2nd Goal
61'
Event
Bernard Nguene → Rafiki Saïd
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
Dennis Eckert Ayensa → Timothé Nkada
1st Substitution
Event
Henok Teklab
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
48'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Standard Liège exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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