Deportivo La Coruña vs Málaga Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Abanca-Riazor Sat, 4 Apr - 4:30 PM
La Liga 2
Deportivo La Coruña COR
1 – 1
Málaga MLA
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 4:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Samuele Mulattieri - 74'
Goal
|
Goal
Adrián Niño - 79'

CONTEXT

The match between Deportivo La Coruña and Málaga has finished in a 1-1 draw. After a goalless first half left the teams completely even at the break, both sides finally found the back of the net in the second period. Deportivo La Coruña controlled a slight majority of the ball with 53% possession compared to Málaga's 47%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, meaning it cannot be determined if the final scoreline accurately aligned with the underlying chance quality. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. Deportivo La Coruña entered the match as the stronger team and the clear favorites, holding a 48.8% implied probability of victory. In contrast, the market gave Málaga just a 24.9% chance of winning and a 26.3% chance of a draw. Because Deportivo La Coruña failed to secure the home win, the final outcome was not aligned with the pre-match market. Despite the dropped points for the home favorites, the match's overall efficiency shift was entirely in line with expectations. Furthermore, the game was contested without any major disciplinary disruptions, as neither side received a red card to alter the tactical balance.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Deportivo La Coruña showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Sanz Torcal
S. Sanz Torcal
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.76
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.37
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
F. García Riesgo
F. García Riesgo
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.76
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.37
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
C. Valverde Monsalve
C. Valverde Monsalve
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.76
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.37
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
D. Arcediano Monescillo
D. Arcediano Monescillo
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.76
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.37
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
Deportivo La Coruña A. Hidalgo Morilla
A. Hidalgo Morilla
VS
Málaga J. Funes Arjona
J. Funes Arjona
1.69
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.85
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Córdoba Rank: 61 W
Sporting Gijón Rank: 65 D
Real Zaragoza Rank: 59 W
Ceuta Rank: 62 W
Granada Rank: 67 L
Real Sociedad II Rank: 61 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Andorra Rank: 61 D
Leganés Rank: 67 D
Cádiz Rank: 62 W
Huesca Rank: 60 W
Real Valladolid Rank: 60 D
Granada Rank: 67 W
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 11 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Deportivo La Coruña
48.78%
Draw
26.29%
Away Málaga
24.93%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.3
68.25
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Deportivo La Coruña
Málaga
Power Score
68.3
68.25
League Position
2
4
Global Rank
228
229

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Deportivo La Coruña — Opponent-weighted form score
Málaga — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Deportivo La Coruña Málaga

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Deportivo La Coruña

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Málaga

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Deportivo La Coruña ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Málaga
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.85
31.70
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.70
40.85
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Deportivo La Coruña +0.92 Efficiency Index
vs
Málaga -0.92 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Deportivo La Coruña
Málaga
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Deportivo La Coruña ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Málaga
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Deportivo La Coruña Málaga
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Deportivo La Coruña Málaga
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Deportivo La Coruña
Málaga
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Deportivo La Coruña
vs
Málaga
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Deportivo La Coruña Málaga
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Deportivo La Coruña 0.36
Málaga 0.34
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Deportivo La Coruña Málaga
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Deportivo La Coruña 0.03
Málaga 0.02
Deportivo La Coruña
Málaga
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 29 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Deportivo La Coruña COR Home
29 matches
Málaga MLA Away
Match Record
9
Wins
9
11
Draws
11
9
Losses
9
Goals
35
Goals Scored
37
37
Goals Conceded
35
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:05:56+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-2-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
Á. Fernández Llorente
Spain
25 Á. Fernández Llorente
J. Navarro Jiménez
Spain
23 J. Navarro Jiménez
L. Noubi Ngnokam
Belgium
4 L. Noubi Ngnokam
M. Loureiro Ameijeda
Spain
15 M. Loureiro Ameijeda
G. Quagliata
Italy
12 G. Quagliata
D. Villares Yáñez
Substitution
Spain
8 D. Villares Yáñez
M. Soriano Carreño
Spain
21 M. Soriano Carreño
A. Altimira Reynaldos
Spain
2 A. Altimira Reynaldos
L. Cruz Hernández
Substitution
Spain
19 L. Cruz Hernández
J. Molina Martínez
Substitution
Spain
22 J. Molina Martínez
B. Nsongo Tonfack
Substitution
32 B. Nsongo Tonfack
A. Herrero Peinador
Spain
1 A. Herrero Peinador
R. Garrido Hierro
Spain
31 R. Garrido Hierro
F. Montero Rubio
Spain
20 F. Montero Rubio
D. Murillo Dominguez
Spain
16 D. Murillo Dominguez
C. Puga Medina
Substitution
Spain
3 C. Puga Medina
J. Muñoz Benavides
Spain
11 J. Muñoz Benavides
I. Merino Rodríguez
Substitution
Spain
23 I. Merino Rodríguez
J. Jiménez Melero
Substitution
Spain
8 J. Jiménez Melero
D. Larrubia Romano
Substitution
Spain
10 D. Larrubia Romano
C. Ruiz Rubio
Spain
9 C. Ruiz Rubio
A. Ochoa Moloney
Substitution
Spain
35 A. Ochoa Moloney

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 04, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Abanca-Riazor
Capacity
32490
Attendance
28356
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Samuel Sanz Torcal
Francisco García Riesgo
Christian Arlex Valverde Monsalve
Dámaso Arcediano Monescillo

Statistics

Possession
COR
53%
MLA
47%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 1
53 Dangerous attacks 38
53 Possession 47
11 Corners 9
13 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

1 Assists 1
9 Goal Attempts 3
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
4 Substitutions 5
19 Throwins 15
6 Successful Dribbles 4
15 Dribble Attempts 11
53 Ball Safe 67
4 Goal Kicks 6
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

84 Attacks 79
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

14 Key Passes 10
84 Successful Passes Percentage 82
31 Long Passes 38
328 Successful Passes 293
389 Passes 357
14 Successful Long Passes 8
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 21

Defensive

13 Interceptions 8
21 Tackles 15
46 Duels Won 35
0 Saves 5

Build-up

27 Total Crosses 17
6 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

10 Fouls 13
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Dámaso Arcediano Monescillo

Starting XI ▼

25
Álvaro Fernández
Álvaro Fernández Goalkeeper
4
Lucas Noubi
Lucas Noubi Defender
12
Giacomo Quagliata
Giacomo Quagliata Defender
15
Miguel Loureiro
Miguel Loureiro Defender
23
Ximo Navarro
Ximo Navarro Defender
2
Adrià Altimira
Adrià Altimira Midfielder
8
Diego Villares
Diego Villares Midfielder
14
Riki Rodríguez
Riki Rodríguez
Midfielder84'
19
Luismi Cruz
Luismi Cruz Midfielder
6
Charlie Patiño
Charlie Patiño
Midfielder84'
21
Mario Soriano
Mario Soriano Midfielder
22
Stoichkov
Stoichkov Attacker
7
Samuele Mulattieri
Samuele Mulattieri
Attacker62'
32
Bil Dornol Nsongo Tonfack
Bil Dornol Nsongo Tonfack Attacker
10
Yeremay Hernández
Yeremay Hernández
Attacker62'
Referee : Dámaso Arcediano Monescillo

Starting XI ▼

1
Alfonso Herrero
Alfonso Herrero Goalkeeper
3
Carlos Puga
Carlos Puga Defender
14
Víctor García
Víctor García
Defender84'
16
Diego Murillo
Diego Murillo Defender
20
Javi Montero
Javi Montero Defender
31
Rafita Garrido
Rafita Garrido Defender
8
Juanpe
Juanpe Midfielder
6
Ramón Enríquez
Ramón Enríquez
Midfielder75'
10
David Larrubia
David Larrubia Midfielder
21
Adrián Niño
Adrián Niño
Attacker76'
11
Joaquín Muñoz
Joaquín Muñoz Midfielder
23
Izan Merino
Izan Merino Midfielder
37
Rafa Rodríguez
Rafa Rodríguez
Midfielder75'
9
Chupe
Chupe Attacker
35
Aarón Ochoa
Aarón Ochoa Attacker
25
Josué Dorrio
Josué Dorrio
Attacker67'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Adrià Altimira
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
90+4'
87'
Event
Diego Murillo
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Charlie Patiño → Luismi Cruz
8th Substitution
84'
Event
Riki Rodríguez → Diego Villares
9th Substitution
84'
84'
Event
Víctor García → Carlos Puga
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Adrián Niño
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
76'
Event
Adrián Niño → David Larrubia
6th Substitution
Event
Samuele Mulattieri
3rd Yellowcard
75'
75'
Event
Ramón Enríquez → Juanpe
4th Substitution
75'
Event
Rafa Rodríguez → Izan Merino
5th Substitution
Event
Samuele Mulattieri
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
74'
73'
Event
Izan Merino
Off the ball foul / 2nd Yellowcard
67'
Event
Josué Dorrio → Aarón Ochoa
3rd Substitution
Event
Samuele Mulattieri → Stoichkov
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Yeremay Hernández → Bil Dornol Nsongo Tonfack
1st Substitution
62'
1ST-HALF
42'
Event
Carlos Puga
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
38'
Event
Juan Funes
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Var
26'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Deportivo La Coruña exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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