Akhmat Grozny vs Krasnodar Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Akhmat Arena Sat, 4 Apr - 4:45 PM
Premier League
Akhmat Grozny AKH
0 Winner 1
Krasnodar KRA
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 4:45 PM
Round 23 Regular Season
|
Goal
Jhon Córdoba - 86'
Ismael Silva 90+3' Red Card
|
Second yellow card Aleksandr Chernikov 90+6'

CONTEXT

The match between Akhmat Grozny and Krasnodar has officially finished with a full-time score of 0-1, as the visiting side secured a narrow victory following a completely even, scoreless first half. Krasnodar slightly edged the possession battle, controlling 53% of the ball compared to Akhmat Grozny's 47%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, it cannot be determined if the outcome aligned with the underlying chance creation metrics. Despite pre-match market probabilities registering at zero across the board, Krasnodar was recognized as the stronger team and successfully fulfilled that expectation. The performance represented a significant deviation level for Krasnodar compared to strict baselines, yet the final away victory remained fully aligned with the broader pre-match market. Additionally, the overall efficiency shift throughout the contest was evaluated to be perfectly in line with standard dynamics. The match's flow was profoundly altered by severe disciplinary issues, creating a distinct second-half red card distortion. Both Akhmat Grozny and Krasnodar had a player sent off, reducing each squad to ten men. Managing this chaotic, stretched environment, Krasnodar ultimately found the crucial breakthrough to take all three points.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Krasnodar showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Frolov
A. Frolov
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.83
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.51
Akhmat Grozny S. Cherchesov
S. Cherchesov
VS
Krasnodar M. Musaev
M. Musaev
1.25
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.42
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rostov Rank: 60 W
Akron Rank: 54 D
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: 71 D
CSKA Moskva Rank: 72 W
Orenburg Rank: 52 W
Dinamo Moskva Rank: 70 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 52 W
Sochi Rank: 49 W
Rubin Kazan Rank: 62 L
Rostov Rank: 60 W
CSKA Moskva Rank: 72 W
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 55 W
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 6 - 14
14

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Akhmat Grozny
0%
Draw
0%
Away Krasnodar
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
59.33
76.78
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Akhmat Grozny
Krasnodar
Power Score
59.33
76.78
League Position
8
1
Global Rank
489
83

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Akhmat Grozny — Opponent-weighted form score
Krasnodar — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Akhmat Grozny Krasnodar

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Akhmat Grozny

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Krasnodar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Akhmat Grozny ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Krasnodar
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.49
24.43
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.43
31.49
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Akhmat Grozny +0.78 Efficiency Index
vs
Krasnodar -0.78 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Akhmat Grozny
Krasnodar
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Akhmat Grozny ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Krasnodar
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Akhmat Grozny Krasnodar
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Akhmat Grozny Krasnodar
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Akhmat Grozny
Krasnodar
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Akhmat Grozny
vs
Krasnodar
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Akhmat Grozny Krasnodar
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Akhmat Grozny 0.21
Krasnodar 0.28
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Akhmat Grozny Krasnodar
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Akhmat Grozny 0.03
Krasnodar 0.00
Akhmat Grozny
Krasnodar
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Akhmat Grozny AKH Home
31 matches
Krasnodar KRA Away
Match Record
11
Wins
14
6
Draws
6
14
Losses
11
Goals
37
Goals Scored
44
44
Goals Conceded
37
-7
Goal Difference
+7
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:06:06+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
V. Uljanov
Russia
1 V. Uljanov
M. Sidorov
Russia
81 M. Sidorov
O. Ndong
Senegal
90 O. Ndong
K. Cake
Substitution
Albania
5 K. Cake
M. Bogosavac
Serbia
8 M. Bogosavac
I. Silva Lima
Brazil
11 I. Silva Lima
M. Keliano
Angola
42 M. Keliano
B. Mansilla
Substitution
Argentina
9 B. Mansilla
E. dos Santos Cacintura
Angola
17 E. dos Santos Cacintura
L. Sadulaev
Substitution
Russia
7 L. Sadulaev
G. Melkadze
Russia
77 G. Melkadze
S. Agkatsev
Russia
1 S. Agkatsev
L. Olaza Catrofe
Uruguay
15 L. Olaza Catrofe
D. Costa Barbosa
Brazil
4 D. Costa Barbosa
V. Tormena de Farias
Brazil
3 V. Tormena de Farias
V. Paltsev
Substitution
Russia
17 V. Paltsev
K. Gonçalves Pereira de Pina
Cape Verde
6 K. Gonçalves Pereira de Pina
N. Krivtsov
Russia
88 N. Krivtsov
G. González Apud
Uruguay
20 G. González Apud
E. Spertsyan
Substitution
Armenia
10 E. Spertsyan
J. Fortes Bachiessa
Substitution
Angola
11 J. Fortes Bachiessa
J. Córdoba Copete
Colombia
9 J. Córdoba Copete

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 04, 2026, 04:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 23 · Regular Season
Stadium
Akhmat Arena
Capacity
30597
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Anton Frolov

Statistics

Possession
AKH
45%
KRA
55%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
1 Shots 2
56 Dangerous attacks 39
47 Possession 53
5 Corners 4
17 Free kicks 11
0 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

24 Throwins 15
25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 27
4 Dribble Attempts 4
10 Successful Headers 19
0 Assists 1
4 Successful Dribbles 4
10 Goal Kicks 14
2 Injuries 1
11 Goal Attempts 11
3 Substitutions 3
95 Ball Safe 88

Attacking

91 Attacks 98

Possession

74 Successful Passes Percentage 81
28 Long Passes 25
218 Successful Passes 326
296 Passes 409

Defensive

2 Saves 2
12 Interceptions 18
22 Tackles 17
48 Duels Won 49

Discipline

9 Fouls 13
2 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Anton Frolov

Starting XI ▼

1
Vadim Ulyanov
Vadim Ulyanov Goalkeeper
5
Klisman Cake
Klisman Cake Defender
22
Mohammadmehdi Zare
Mohammadmehdi Zare
Defender85'
8
Miroslav Bogosavac
Miroslav Bogosavac Defender
81
Maksim Sidorov
Maksim Sidorov Defender
90
Ousmane N’Dong
Ousmane N’Dong Defender
7
Lechi Sadulaev
Lechi Sadulaev Midfielder
37
P. Gadio
P. Gadio
Midfielder66'
9
Brian Mansilla
Brian Mansilla Midfielder
20
Maksim Samorodov
Maksim Samorodov
Attacker60'
11
Ismael Silva
Ismael Silva Midfielder
17
Egas Cacintura
Egas Cacintura Midfielder
42
Kelliano
Kelliano Midfielder
77
Georgiy Melkadze
Georgiy Melkadze Attacker
Referee : Anton Frolov

Starting XI ▼

1
Stanislav Agkatsev
Stanislav Agkatsev Goalkeeper
3
Vítor Tormena
Vítor Tormena Defender
4
Diego Costa
Diego Costa Defender
15
Lucas Olaza
Lucas Olaza Defender
17
Valentin Paltsev
Valentin Paltsev Defender
90
Moses David Cobnan
Moses David Cobnan
Attacker73'
6
Kevin Lenini
Kevin Lenini Midfielder
10
Eduard Spertsyan
Eduard Spertsyan Midfielder
53
Aleksandr Chernikov
Aleksandr Chernikov
Midfielder60'
11
João Batxi
João Batxi Midfielder
23
Juan Manuel Boselli
Juan Manuel Boselli
Attacker75'
20
Giovanni González
Giovanni González Midfielder
88
Nikita Krivtsov
Nikita Krivtsov Midfielder
9
Jhon Córdoba
Jhon Córdoba Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+8'
Event
Stanislav Agkatsev
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Aleksandr Chernikov
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
Event
Ismael Silva
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
90+3'
86'
Event
Jhon Córdoba
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Mohammadmehdi Zare → Klisman Cake
6th Substitution
85'
83'
Event
Aleksandr Chernikov
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
75'
Event
Juan Manuel Boselli → João Batxi
5th Substitution
Event
Var
73'
73'
Event
Moses David Cobnan → Valentin Paltsev
4th Substitution
Event
P. Gadio → Lechi Sadulaev
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Maksim Samorodov → Brian Mansilla
2nd Substitution
60'
60'
Event
Aleksandr Chernikov → Eduard Spertsyan
1st Substitution

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Krasnodar exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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