Trabzonspor vs Galatasaray Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Medical Park Stadyumu Sat, 4 Apr - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Trabzonspor TRA
2 Winner 1
Galatasaray GAL
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Paul Onuachu - 4'
Chibuike Nwaiwu - 62'
Goal
|
Goal
Wilfried Singo - 48'

CONTEXT

The match between Trabzonspor and Galatasaray has finished with a full-time score of 2-1 in favor of the home side. Trabzonspor established an early advantage, leading 1-0 at half-time before ultimately securing the victory. This outcome was not aligned with the pre-match market, which favored Galatasaray as the stronger team with a 44.1% probability of winning. Meanwhile, Trabzonspor entered with just a 29.3% chance of victory (and a 26.6% chance of a draw), resulting in a significant deviation toward the hosts. Despite the defeat, Galatasaray dominated the ball, finishing with 64% possession compared to Trabzonspor's 36%. Because expected goals (xG) data is unavailable for both sides, it cannot be determined whether the final scoreline was consistent with the underlying chance creation. However, the overall efficiency shift was noted to be in line with the match's flow. The fixture concluded without any red cards being issued, meaning major disciplinary events did not alter the numerical balance on the pitch. Ultimately, Trabzonspor effectively maximized their limited time on the ball to overcome the odds and defy the pre-match market.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Trabzonspor showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Akarsu
A. Akarsu
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.65
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
B. Duran
B. Duran
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.65
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
C. Aydın
C. Aydın
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.65
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
S. Özay
S. Özay
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.65
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Trabzonspor F. Tekke
F. Tekke
VS
Galatasaray O. Buruk
O. Buruk
2.26
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.26
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Eyüpspor Rank: 63 W
Rizespor Rank: 68 W
Kayserispor Rank: 63 W
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: 62 W
Gaziantep F.K. Rank: 67 W
Fenerbahçe Rank: 84 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: 75 W
Beşiktaş Rank: 78 W
Alanyaspor Rank: 70 W
Konyaspor Rank: 68 L
Eyüpspor Rank: 63 W
Rizespor Rank: 68 W
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 10 - 21
21

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Trabzonspor
29.29%
Draw
26.59%
Away Galatasaray
44.11%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
80.46
89.27
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Trabzonspor
Galatasaray
Power Score
80.46
89.27
League Position
2
1
Global Rank
61
18

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Trabzonspor — Opponent-weighted form score
Galatasaray — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Trabzonspor Galatasaray

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Trabzonspor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Galatasaray

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Trabzonspor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Galatasaray
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.03
33.91
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.91
39.03
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Trabzonspor +0.56 Efficiency Index
vs
Galatasaray -0.56 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Trabzonspor
Galatasaray
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Trabzonspor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Galatasaray
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Trabzonspor Galatasaray
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Trabzonspor Galatasaray
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Trabzonspor
Galatasaray
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Trabzonspor
vs
Galatasaray
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Trabzonspor Galatasaray
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Trabzonspor 0.62
Galatasaray 0.35
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Trabzonspor Galatasaray
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Trabzonspor 0.02
Galatasaray 0.10
Trabzonspor
Galatasaray
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 43 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Trabzonspor TRA Home
43 matches
Galatasaray GAL Away
Match Record
12
Wins
21
10
Draws
10
21
Losses
12
Goals
51
Goals Scored
68
68
Goals Conceded
51
-17
Goal Difference
+17
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:06:22+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Onana
Cameroon
24 A. Onana
W. Cardoso Pina
Portugal
20 W. Cardoso Pina
S. Savić
Montenegro
15 S. Savić
C. Nwaiwu
Nigeria
27 C. Nwaiwu
M. Eskihellaç
Substitution
Turkey
19 M. Eskihellaç
O. Tufan
Substitution
Turkey
11 O. Tufan
T. Jabol Folcarelli
France
26 T. Jabol Folcarelli
O. Zubkov
Substitution
Ukraine
22 O. Zubkov
F. da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
99 F. da Silva
A. Nwakaeme
Substitution
Nigeria
9 A. Nwakaeme
E. Onuachu
Nigeria
30 E. Onuachu
U. Çakır
Turkey
1 U. Çakır
I. Jakobs
Substitution
Senegal
4 I. Jakobs
A. Bardakcı
Turkey
42 A. Bardakcı
D. Sánchez Mina
Colombia
6 D. Sánchez Mina
W. Singo
Ivory Coast
90 W. Singo
M. Lemina
Substitution
Gabon
99 M. Lemina
L. Torreira Di Pascua
Substitution
Uruguay
34 L. Torreira Di Pascua
N. Lang
Substitution
Netherlands
77 N. Lang
Y. Akgün
Substitution
Turkey
11 Y. Akgün
B. Yılmaz
Turkey
53 B. Yılmaz
M. Icardi Rivero
Argentina
9 M. Icardi Rivero

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 04, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium
Medical Park Stadyumu
Capacity
40782
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Alper Akarsu
Bersan Duran
C. Aydın
Süleyman Özay

Statistics

Possession
TRA
40%
GAL
60%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 2
7 Shots 11
21 Dangerous attacks 54
36 Possession 64
3 Corners 10
15 Free kicks 12
3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
4 Injuries 1
10 Successful Headers 14
14 Goal Kicks 11
17 Dribble Attempts 19
11 Goal Attempts 10
72 Ball Safe 68
15 Throwins 22
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53
2 Assists 1
8 Successful Dribbles 10

Attacking

60 Attacks 104
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

77 Successful Passes Percentage 87
10 Key Passes 16
262 Passes 443
53 Long Passes 42
202 Successful Passes 387
26 Successful Long Passes 28
49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 67

Defensive

9 Interceptions 5
17 Tackles 16
49 Duels Won 51
2 Saves 1

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 37
5 Accurate Crosses 13

Discipline

3 Offsides 0
12 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : C. Aydın

Starting XI ▼

24
André Onana
André Onana Goalkeeper
15
Stefan Savic
Stefan Savic Defender
19
Mustafa Eskihellaç
Mustafa Eskihellaç Defender
74
Salih Malkoçoğlu
Salih Malkoçoğlu
Midfielder90+2'
20
Wagner Pina
Wagner Pina Defender
27
Chibuike Nwaiwu
Chibuike Nwaiwu Defender
9
Anthony Nwakaeme
Anthony Nwakaeme Midfielder
14
Mathias Løvik
Mathias Løvik
Defender79'
11
Ozan Tufan
Ozan Tufan Midfielder
18
Umut Nayir
Umut Nayir
Attacker88'
22
Oleksandr Zubkov
Oleksandr Zubkov Midfielder
5
Okay Yokuşlu
Okay Yokuşlu
Midfielder88'
26
Tim Jabol-Folcarelli
Tim Jabol-Folcarelli Midfielder
99
Felipe Augusto
Felipe Augusto Midfielder
8
Benjamin Bouchouari
Benjamin Bouchouari
Midfielder79'
30
Paul Onuachu
Paul Onuachu Attacker
Referee : C. Aydın

Starting XI ▼

1
Uğurcan Çakır
Uğurcan Çakır Goalkeeper
4
Ismail Jakobs
Ismail Jakobs Defender
17
Eren Elmalı
Eren Elmalı
Defender46'
6
Davinson Sánchez
Davinson Sánchez Defender
42
Abdülkerim Bardakcı
Abdülkerim Bardakcı Defender
90
Wilfried Singo
Wilfried Singo Defender
11
Yunus Akgün
Yunus Akgün Midfielder
21
Ahmed Kutucu
Ahmed Kutucu
Attacker88'
34
Lucas Torreira
Lucas Torreira Midfielder
20
İlkay Gündoğan
İlkay Gündoğan
Midfielder46'
53
Barış Alper Yılmaz
Barış Alper Yılmaz Midfielder
77
Noa Lang
Noa Lang Midfielder
7
Roland Sallai
Roland Sallai
Attacker68'
99
Mario Lemina
Mario Lemina Midfielder
22
Yáser Asprilla
Yáser Asprilla
Attacker83'
9
Mauro Icardi
Mauro Icardi Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Salih Malkoçoğlu → Mustafa Eskihellaç
10th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Umut Nayir → Ozan Tufan
8th Substitution
88'
Event
Okay Yokuşlu → Oleksandr Zubkov
9th Substitution
88'
88'
Event
Ahmed Kutucu → Yunus Akgün
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Yáser Asprilla → Mario Lemina
6th Substitution
Event
Benjamin Bouchouari → Felipe Augusto
4th Substitution
79'
Event
Mathias Løvik → Anthony Nwakaeme
5th Substitution
79'
79'
Event
Abdülkerim Bardakcı
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Wagner Pina
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
77'
Event
André Onana
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
76'
68'
Event
Roland Sallai → Noa Lang
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Davinson Sánchez
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Chibuike Nwaiwu
Header / 3rd Goal
62'
53'
Event
Barış Alper Yılmaz
1st Var
51'
Event
Barış Alper Yılmaz
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
48'
Event
Wilfried Singo
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
46'
Event
Eren Elmalı → Ismail Jakobs
1st Substitution
46'
Event
İlkay Gündoğan → Lucas Torreira
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
22'
Event
Okan Buruk
7th Yellowcard
Event
Ozan Tufan
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
20'
Event
Paul Onuachu
Header / 1st Goal
4'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Trabzonspor exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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