Moreirense vs Sporting Braga Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas Sat, 4 Apr - 5:00 PM
Liga Portugal
Moreirense MOE
0 Winner 1
Sporting Braga SBR
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
|
Goal
Fran Navarro - 24'

CONTEXT

The match between Moreirense and Sporting Braga has finished, with Sporting Braga securing a 1-0 away victory. The visitors took the lead in the first half and successfully maintained their 1-0 advantage through to the final whistle. This outcome aligned perfectly with pre-match market expectations. Sporting Braga entered the fixture as heavy favorites with a 63.4% win probability, compared to just a 12.9% chance for Moreirense and a 23.8% likelihood of a draw. Consequently, the result represented a significant deviation in favor of Sporting Braga relative to a perfectly balanced contest. Sporting Braga controlled the overall tempo of the game, commanding 60% of the possession while restricting Moreirense to just 40% of the ball. Although expected goals (xG) data was unavailable to further validate the underlying offensive performances of either side, the match's efficiency shift was still entirely in line with pre-game projections. Furthermore, the flow of the match was unaffected by major disciplinary events, as the fixture concluded cleanly with zero red cards shown to either team. Ultimately, the favored away side comfortably translated their market dominance into a predictable, professional win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sporting Braga showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Alves Fernandes
J. Alves Fernandes
1st Assistant 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.82
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
B. Ribeiro Pires Costa
B. Ribeiro Pires Costa
Referee 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.82
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
J. Correia Gonçalves Morte
J. Correia Gonçalves Morte
2nd Assistant 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.82
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
R. Gomes Lima
R. Gomes Lima
4th Official 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.82
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Moreirense V. de Albuquerque Botelho da Costa
V. de Albuquerque Botelho da Costa
VS
Sporting Braga C. Vicens
C. Vicens
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.95
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Arouca Rank: 63 L
Porto Rank: 86 L
Nacional Rank: 63 D
Casa Pia Rank: 63 D
Sporting CP Rank: 89 L
Rio Ave Rank: 64 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Porto Rank: 87 L
Sporting CP Rank: 89 D
Nacional Rank: 63 W
Vitória Guimarães Rank: 71 W
Gil Vicente Rank: 70 L
Rio Ave Rank: 64 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 3 - 18
18

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Moreirense
12.86%
Draw
23.75%
Away Sporting Braga
63.39%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
67.2
81.11
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Moreirense
Sporting Braga
Power Score
67.2
81.11
League Position
9
4
Global Rank
267
57

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
Moreirense Opponent-weighted form score
Sporting Braga Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Moreirense Sporting Braga

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

vs

Moreirense

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Sporting Braga

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Moreirense ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sporting Braga
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.75
20.83
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.83
33.75
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Moreirense +1.30 Efficiency Index
vs
Sporting Braga -1.30 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Moreirense
Sporting Braga
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Moreirense ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sporting Braga
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Moreirense Sporting Braga
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
vs
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Moreirense Sporting Braga
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
vs
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Moreirense
Sporting Braga
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Moreirense
vs
Sporting Braga
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Moreirense Sporting Braga
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Moreirense Sporting Braga
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
Moreirense
Sporting Braga
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Moreirense MOE Home
23 matches
Sporting Braga SBR Away
Match Record
2
Wins
18
3
Draws
3
18
Losses
2
Goals
17
Goals Scored
42
42
Goals Conceded
17
-25
Goal Difference
+25
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:06:31+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-4-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
A. Ribeiro Ferreira
Portugal
13 A. Ribeiro Ferreira
D. Martins Travassos
Portugal
2 D. Martins Travassos
G. Dambi Batista
Substitution
Portugal
66 G. Dambi Batista
J. de Brito Gonzaga
Brazil
26 J. de Brito Gonzaga
F. Teixeira Domingues
Portugal
27 F. Teixeira Domingues
L. Costa Araujo
Substitution
Brazil
78 L. Costa Araujo
F. Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
Substitution
Portugal
10 F. Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
N. John
England
23 N. John
R. Alonso Martín
Substitution
Spain
21 R. Alonso Martín
A. de Souza Guimarães
Brazil
11 A. de Souza Guimarães
L. Silva Semedo
Portugal
9 L. Silva Semedo
L. Horníček
Czech Republic
1 L. Horníček
B. Arrey-Mbi
Germany
26 B. Arrey-Mbi
S. Niakate
Mali
4 S. Niakate
G. Lagerbielke
Sweden
14 G. Lagerbielke
G. Martínez Aguilera
Substitution
Spain
77 G. Martínez Aguilera
J. Iria Santos Moutinho
Portugal
8 J. Iria Santos Moutinho
G. Baptiste
France
29 G. Baptiste
V. Gómez Perea
Spain
2 V. Gómez Perea
R. Horta
Substitution
Portugal
21 R. Horta
F. Navarro Aliaga
Substitution
Spain
39 F. Navarro Aliaga
Pau Victor
Substitution
Spain
18 Pau Victor

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 04, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Capacity
2000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jorge António Alves Fernandes
Bruno José Ribeiro Pires Costa
João Pedro Correia Gonçalves Morte
Rui Miguel Gomes Lima

Statistics

Possession
MOE
42%
SBR
58%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 2
5 Shots 7
30 Dangerous attacks 50
40 Possession 60
4 Corners 9
14 Free kicks 9
0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

0 Goal Attempts 1
9 Ball Safe 8
4 Goal Kicks 4
11 Successful Headers 15
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55
8 Successful Dribbles 11
5 Substitutions 4
21 Throwins 22
15 Dribble Attempts 20
0 Hit Woodwork 2

Attacking

70 Attacks 137
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

83 Successful Passes Percentage 88
7 Key Passes 9
339 Successful Passes 559
50 Long Passes 48
410 Passes 638
34 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
17 Successful Long Passes 16

Defensive

24 Tackles 11
57 Duels Won 46
6 Saves 2
7 Interceptions 5

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 14
4 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

0 Offsides 2
9 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Bruno José Ribeiro Pires Costa

Starting XI

13
André Ferreira
André Ferreira Goalkeeper
2
Travassos
Travassos Defender
26
Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga
Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga Defender
27
Francisco Miguel Teixeira Domingues
Francisco Miguel Teixeira Domingues Defender
66
Gilberto Dambi Batista
Gilberto Dambi Batista Defender
4
Kevyn Monteiro
Kevyn Monteiro
Defender67'
78
Landerson
Landerson Defender
70
Fabiano Josué de Souza Silva
Fabiano Josué de Souza Silva
Defender72'
10
Francisco Miguel Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
Francisco Miguel Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso Midfielder
7
Cedric Wilfried Teguia Noubi
Cedric Wilfried Teguia Noubi
Attacker67'
11
Alan de Souza Guimarães
Alan de Souza Guimarães Midfielder
21
Rodrigo Alonso Martín
Rodrigo Alonso Martín Midfielder
8
Mateja Stjepanović
Mateja Stjepanović
Midfielder67'
23
Nile John
Nile John Midfielder
9
Luís Semedo
Luís Semedo Attacker
Referee : Bruno José Ribeiro Pires Costa

Starting XI

1
Lukas Hornicek
Lukas Hornicek Goalkeeper
4
Sikou Niakaté
Sikou Niakaté Defender
14
Gustaf Lagerbielke
Gustaf Lagerbielke Defender
26
Bright Arrey-Mbi
Bright Arrey-Mbi Defender
2
Víctor Gómez
Víctor Gómez Midfielder
8
João Moutinho
João Moutinho Midfielder
29
Gorby
Gorby Midfielder
77
Gabri Martínez
Gabri Martínez Midfielder
20
Mario Dorgeles
Mario Dorgeles
Midfielder75'
18
Pau Víctor
Pau Víctor Attacker
9
Amine El Ouazzani
Amine El Ouazzani
Attacker85'
21
Ricardo Horta
Ricardo Horta Attacker
17
Gabriel Moscardo
Gabriel Moscardo
Midfielder90+2'
39
Fran Navarro
Fran Navarro Attacker
50
Diego Rodrigues
Diego Rodrigues
Midfielder76'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Gabriel Moscardo Ricardo Horta
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Pau Víctor
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
85'
Event
Amine El Ouazzani Pau Víctor
7th Substitution
85'
Event
4th Yellowcard
76'
Event
Diego Rodrigues Fran Navarro
6th Substitution
76'
Event
Fran Navarro
3rd Yellowcard
75'
Event
Mario Dorgeles Gabri Martínez
5th Substitution
Event
Fabiano Josué de Souza Silva Landerson
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Kevyn Monteiro Gilberto Dambi Batista
2nd Substitution
67'
Event
Mateja Stjepanović Rodrigo Alonso Martín
1st Substitution
67'
Event
Cedric Wilfried Teguia Noubi Francisco Miguel Ribeiro Tomé Tavares Bondoso
3rd Substitution
67'
1ST-HALF
33'
Event
Gustaf Lagerbielke
1st Yellowcard
24'
Event
Fran Navarro
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Diego Rodrigues of Sporting Braga makes an attacking attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved by André Ferreira, the goalkeeper for Moreirense, who is positioned in the center of the goal. The assist came from Gabriel Moscardo.
90
Attempt Attempt
Mateja Stjepanovic's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Kiko provided the assist with a header.
90
Update Update
Gabriel Moscardo from Sporting Braga commits a foul.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Moreirense 0, Sporting Braga 1.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sporting Braga: Gabriel Moscardo replaces Ricardo Horta.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 3 minutes of added time.
90
Attempt Attempt
Kiko from Moreirense missed a chance with a left-footed shot from outside the box, assisted by Mateja Stjepanovic.
90
Update Update
André Ferreira from Moreirense won a free kick in defense.
87
Attempt Attempt
Cedric Teguia's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Kiko provided the assist.
86
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Nile John from Moreirense shoots with his right foot from outside the box, but it's high and wide to the right.
86
Update Update
Nile John from Moreirense misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, sending the ball high and wide to the right.
85
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Alan from Moreirense had a right-footed shot from the center of the box that was blocked.
85
Update Update
Pau Víctor fouled by Sporting Braga.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sporting Braga: Amine El Ouazzani replaces Pau Víctor.
85
Update Update
Fabiano Souza from Moreirense won a free kick on the right wing.
83
Update Update
Pau Víctor of Sporting Braga is flagged for offside.
82
Attempt Attempt
Diogo Travassos from Moreirense has his right-footed shot from the left side of the box blocked.
82
Corner Corner
Moreirense is awarded a corner after Víctor Gómez concedes.
82
Update Update
Pau Víctor of Sporting Braga is flagged for offside.
81
Update Update
Foul by Kevyn Monteiro of Moreirense.
81
Update Update
Pau Víctor of Sporting Braga won a free kick in an attacking position.
78
Corner Corner
Moreirense wins a corner after Mario Dorgeles concedes it.
78
Attempt Attempt
Diogo Travassos from Moreirense has his right-footed shot from outside the box blocked.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sporting Braga: Mario Dorgeles replaces Gabri Martínez.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Fran Navarro of Sporting Braga receives a yellow card.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sporting Braga: Diego Rodrigues replaces Fran Navarro.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Moreirense: Fabiano Souza replaces Landerson.
71
Update Update
Gabri Martínez from Sporting Braga committed a foul.
71
Update Update
Diogo Travassos from Moreirense won a free kick in defense.
70
Corner Corner
Sporting Braga wins a corner after André Ferreira concedes.
70
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Ricardo Horta of Sporting Braga takes a right-footed shot from a difficult position on the left, but it's saved in the left corner by André Ferreira of Moreirense. The assist comes from João Moutinho with a through ball.
69
Update Update
Sikou Niakaté of Sporting Braga won a free kick in defense.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Moreirense: Cedric Teguia replaces Kiko Bondoso.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Moreirense: Kevyn Monteiro replaces Gilberto Batista.
67
Update Update
Kiko Bondoso of Moreirense won a free kick in defense.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Moreirense: Mateja Stjepanovic replaces Rodri Alonso.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sporting Braga after André Ferreira concedes.
65
Update Update
Offside called against Sporting Braga. Ricardo Horta is offside.
63
Update Update
André Ferreira from Moreirense won a free kick in defense.
61
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Luís Semedo from Moreirense shot with his right foot from outside the box but it went high. The assist was by Alan during a fast break.
59
Corner Corner
Sporting Braga is awarded a corner after André Ferreira concedes.
59
Corner Corner
Sporting Braga wins a corner after André Ferreira concedes.
58
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Sikou Niakaté of Sporting Braga heads the ball from close range, but André Ferreira of Moreirense makes a save in the right corner. The assist came from Ricardo Horta with a cross.
53
Corner Corner
Sporting Braga wins a corner after Maracás concedes.
47
Corner Corner
Sporting Braga wins a corner after Gilberto Batista concedes.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by Jean-Baptiste Gorby of Sporting Braga.
45
Corner Corner
Moreirense wins a corner after Lukás Hornícek concedes.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Moreirense 0, Sporting Braga 1.
45
Attempt Attempt
Pau Víctor's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Ricardo Horta provided the assist.
45
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Nile John from Moreirense takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the left corner by Lukás Hornícek from Sporting Braga. The assist was provided by Rodri Alonso.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 3 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Moreirense 0, Sporting Braga 1.
45
Update Update
Gustaf Lagerbielke of Sporting Braga won a free kick on the right wing.
45
Update Update
Diogo Travassos from Moreirense won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
Alan from Moreirense won a free kick in an attacking position.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Gabri Martínez of Sporting Braga.
41
Update Update
Jean-Baptiste Gorby of Sporting Braga won a free kick in defense.
41
Attempt Attempt
Kiko from Moreirense attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from the left side of the box, but Lukás Hornícek from Sporting Braga saves it in the top center of the goal. The assist was provided by Landerson.
39
Update Update
Rodri Alonso fouled by Moreirense.
39
Update Update
Foul committed by Fran Navarro of Sporting Braga.
38
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Fran Navarro from Sporting Braga has a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it is saved in the top left corner by André Ferreira from Moreirense, assisted by Pau Víctor.
38
Update Update
André Ferreira from Moreirense won a free kick in defense.
38
Corner Corner
Sporting Braga wins a corner after André Ferreira concedes.
37
Corner Corner
Sporting Braga wins a corner after Maracás concedes.
36
Corner Corner
Sporting Braga is awarded a corner after André Ferreira concedes.
36
Corner Corner
Sporting Braga wins a corner after André Ferreira concedes.
34
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Alan from Moreirense took a right-footed shot from outside the box after a free kick.
33
Update Update
Fouled by Gustaf Lagerbielke of Sporting Braga.
33
Update Update
Landerson from Moreirense won a free kick on the left wing.
33
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gustaf Lagerbielke from Sporting Braga receives a yellow card for a foul.
31
Update Update
Maracás commits a foul against Moreirense.
31
Update Update
Fran Navarro of Sporting Braga won a free kick in the attacking position.
30
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Kiko Bondoso from Moreirense.
29
Update Update
João Moutinho of Sporting Braga won a free kick in the attacking area.
28
Update Update
Alan from Moreirense won a free kick in defense.
28
Update Update
Pau Víctor fouled a player from Sporting Braga.
28
Update Update
Diogo Travassos of Moreirense won a free kick in defense.
28
Update Update
Foul committed by Fran Navarro of Sporting Braga.
26
Update Update
Gabri Martínez from Sporting Braga won a free kick in defense.
26
Update Update
Goal! Sporting Braga takes the lead 1-0 with Fran Navarro scoring from close range with his left foot.
24
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Víctor Gómez from Sporting Braga won a free kick in an attacking position.
23
Update Update
Gabri Martínez from Sporting Braga committed a foul.
22
Update Update
Maracás won a free kick in defense against Moreirense.
22
Update Update
Foul committed by Gabri Martínez of Sporting Braga.
20
Update Update
Maracás won a free kick in defense against Moreirense.
20
Update Update
Foul committed by Fran Navarro of Sporting Braga.
15
Corner Corner
Sporting Braga wins a corner after Kiko Bondoso concedes.
14
Corner Corner
Moreirense wins a corner after Gustaf Lagerbielke concedes.
13
Attempt Attempt
Ricardo Horta from Sporting Braga missed a chance, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the box and sending the ball to the left. The assist was provided by Víctor Gómez.
10
Update Update
Foul committed by Fran Navarro of Sporting Braga.
10
Update Update
Kiko from Moreirense won a free kick in defense.
8
Update Update
Víctor Gómez from Sporting Braga won a free kick on the right wing.
1
Update Update
Nile John from Moreirense won a free kick in defense.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Sporting Braga exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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