Jagiellonia Białystok vs Lech Poznań Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Miejski Sat, 4 Apr - 6:15 PM
Ekstraklasa
Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok
0 – 0
Lech Poznań Lech Poznań
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 6:15 PM
Round 27 Regular Season

CONTEXT

The match between Jagiellonia Białystok and Lech Poznań has officially finished, ending in a 0-0 draw. Both sides were unable to break the deadlock in either half, ultimately sharing the points after an evenly contested ninety minutes. Pre-match expectations slightly favored the visitors. Lech Poznań entered as the marginally stronger team with a 38.1% implied win probability, while Jagiellonia Białystok held a 36.4% chance of victory. A draw was considered the least likely scenario at just 25.4%. Because the match ended level, this result represents a significant deviation for Lech Poznań, meaning the final outcome did not align with the pre-match market forecast. On the pitch, the flow of the game was incredibly balanced. Possession was nearly split down the middle, with the hosts controlling 49% of the ball compared to 51% for Lech Poznań. While expected goals (xG) data was unavailable to determine if the scoreless draw aligned with the quality of scoring opportunities, overall attacking efficiency shifts were completely in line with expectations. Finally, the match proceeded without any major disciplinary disruptions, as neither team was impacted by a red card.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lech Poznań showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
T. Listkiewicz
T. Listkiewicz
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
M. Kosarzecki
M. Kosarzecki
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
J. Przybył
J. Przybył
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
S. Łężny
S. Łężny
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Jagiellonia Białystok A. Siemieniec
A. Siemieniec
VS
Lech Poznań N. Frederiksen
N. Frederiksen
1.35
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.71
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Wisła Płock Rank: 56 L
Katowice Rank: 64 W
Piast Gliwice Rank: 60 L
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: 61 L
Legia Warszawa Rank: 63 D
Radomiak Radom Rank: 59 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nieciecza Rank: 52 W
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 65 W
Widzew Lodz Rank: 58 L
Raków Częstochowa Rank: 68 W
Korona Kielce Rank: 61 W
Piast Gliwice Rank: 62 W
17
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
17 - 8 - 17
17

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Jagiellonia Białystok
36.42%
Draw
25.44%
Away Lech Poznań
38.14%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.58
69.43
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Jagiellonia Białystok
Lech Poznań
Power Score
63.58
69.43
League Position
2
1
Global Rank
355
203

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Jagiellonia Białystok — Opponent-weighted form score
Lech Poznań — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Jagiellonia Białystok Lech Poznań

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Jagiellonia Białystok

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lech Poznań

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Jagiellonia Białystok ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lech Poznań
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.16
39.31
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
39.31
28.16
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Jagiellonia Białystok -0.98 Efficiency Index
vs
Lech Poznań +0.98 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Jagiellonia Białystok
Lech Poznań
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Jagiellonia Białystok ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lech Poznań
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Jagiellonia Białystok Lech Poznań
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Jagiellonia Białystok Lech Poznań
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Jagiellonia Białystok
Lech Poznań
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Jagiellonia Białystok
vs
Lech Poznań
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Jagiellonia Białystok Lech Poznań
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Jagiellonia Białystok 0.20
Lech Poznań 0.28
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Jagiellonia Białystok Lech Poznań
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Jagiellonia Białystok 0.00
Lech Poznań 0.00
Jagiellonia Białystok
Lech Poznań
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 42 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok Home
42 matches
Lech Poznań Lech Poznań Away
Match Record
17
Wins
17
8
Draws
8
17
Losses
17
Goals
58
Goals Scored
76
76
Goals Conceded
58
-18
Goal Difference
+18
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:06:39+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-3-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
S. Abramowicz
Poland
50 S. Abramowicz
N. Wojtuszek
Poland
15 N. Wojtuszek
B. Cardoso Vital
Portugal
13 B. Cardoso Vital
A. Pelmard
France
70 A. Pelmard
B. Wdowik
Poland
27 B. Wdowik
E. Kozłowski
Substitution
85 E. Kozłowski
A. Pozo Pozo
Spain
7 A. Pozo Pozo
B. Mazurek
Poland
86 B. Mazurek
K. Szmyt
Substitution
Poland
77 K. Szmyt
J. Imaz Ballesté
Spain
11 J. Imaz Ballesté
A. Pululu
France
10 A. Pululu
B. Mrozek
Poland
41 B. Mrozek
M. Gurgul
Poland
15 M. Gurgul
A. Milić
Croatia
16 A. Milić
M. Skrzypczak
Poland
72 M. Skrzypczak
J. Vieira Pereira
Portugal
2 J. Vieira Pereira
L. Bengtsson
Substitution
Sweden
14 L. Bengtsson
P. Delgado
Substitution
Spain
99 P. Delgado
A. Kozubal
Poland
43 A. Kozubal
A. Gholizadeh
Substitution
Iran
8 A. Gholizadeh
M. Ishak
Substitution
Sweden
9 M. Ishak
P. Wålemark
Substitution
Sweden
10 P. Wålemark

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 04, 2026, 06:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 27 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Miejski
Capacity
22372
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Tomasz Listkiewicz
Maciej Kosarzecki
Jarosław Przybył
Szymon Łężny

Statistics

Possession
Jagiellonia Białystok
50%
Lech Poznań
50%

Top Statistics

1 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 3
56 Dangerous attacks 61
49 Possession 51
3 Corners 3
12 Free kicks 15
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

8 Goal Attempts 11
75 Successful Dribbles Percentage 20
100 Ball Safe 89
10 Throwins 19
12 Dribble Attempts 10
8 Goal Kicks 8
9 Successful Dribbles 2
2 Substitutions 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

93 Attacks 102
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

45 Long Passes 44
7 Key Passes 15
402 Successful Passes 427
86 Successful Passes Percentage 88
467 Passes 486
25 Successful Long Passes 24
56 Successful Long Passes Percentage 55

Defensive

43 Duels Won 28
3 Saves 3
8 Interceptions 11
17 Tackles 9

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 17
1 Accurate Crosses 9

Discipline

15 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Jarosław Przybył

Starting XI ▼

50
Slawomir Abramowicz
Slawomir Abramowicz Goalkeeper
13
Bernardo Vital
Bernardo Vital Defender
15
Norbert Wojtuszek
Norbert Wojtuszek Defender
27
Bartlomiej Wdowik
Bartlomiej Wdowik Defender
70
Andy Pelmard
Andy Pelmard Defender
7
Álex Pozo
Álex Pozo Midfielder
77
Kajetan Szmyt
Kajetan Szmyt Midfielder
19
Matías Nahuel
Matías Nahuel
Midfielder72'
85
Eryk Kozlowski
Eryk Kozlowski Midfielder
6
Taras Romanczuk
Taras Romanczuk
Midfielder72'
86
Bartosz Mazurek
Bartosz Mazurek Midfielder
10
Afimico Pululu
Afimico Pululu Attacker
11
Jesús Imaz
Jesús Imaz Attacker
Referee : Jarosław Przybył

Starting XI ▼

41
Bartosz Mrozek
Bartosz Mrozek Goalkeeper
2
Joel Pereira
Joel Pereira Defender
15
Michal Gurgul
Michal Gurgul Defender
16
Antonio Milic
Antonio Milic Defender
72
Mateusz Skrzypczak
Mateusz Skrzypczak Defender
8
Ali Gholizadeh
Ali Gholizadeh Midfielder
88
Taofeek Ismaheel
Taofeek Ismaheel
Midfielder84'
14
Leo Bengtsson
Leo Bengtsson Midfielder
77
Luis Palma
Luis Palma
Midfielder90+1'
43
Antoni Kozubal
Antoni Kozubal Midfielder
99
Pablo Rodríguez
Pablo Rodríguez Midfielder
23
Gísli Thórdarson
Gísli Thórdarson
Midfielder64'
9
Mikael Ishak
Mikael Ishak Attacker
7
Yannick Agnero
Yannick Agnero
Attacker84'
10
Patrik Wålemark
Patrik Wålemark Attacker
11
Daniel Håkans
Daniel Håkans
Midfielder64'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Afimico Pululu
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90+4'
90+1'
Event
Luis Palma → Leo Bengtsson
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Taofeek Ismaheel → Ali Gholizadeh
6th Substitution
84'
Event
Yannick Agnero → Mikael Ishak
5th Substitution
Event
Taras Romanczuk → Eryk Kozlowski
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Matías Nahuel → Kajetan Szmyt
3rd Substitution
72'
64'
Event
Gísli Thórdarson → Pablo Rodríguez
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Daniel Håkans → Patrik Wålemark
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Adrian Siemieniec
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
45+1'
Event
Bernardo Vital
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
43'
Event
Eryk Kozlowski
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
32'
12'
Event
Antonio Milic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Lech Poznań exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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