Basel vs Young Boys Prediction, Preview and Stats

Switzerland flag 2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
St. Jakob-Park Sat, 4 Apr - 6:30 PM
Super League
Basel BAS
3 – 3
Young Boys YBO
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 6:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Sandro Lauper - 36' (Own Goal)
Xherdan Shaqiri   - 41'
Bénie Traoré - 68'
Goal
|
Goal
Edimilson Fernandes - 27'
Flavius Daniliuc - 64' (Own Goal)
Ebrima Colley - 90'

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished, ending in an entertaining 3-3 draw between Basel and Young Boys. Basel took an early advantage, heading into the break with a 2-1 lead, but were ultimately unable to hold on for the victory. Before kickoff, the market favored Basel as the stronger team, giving them a 43.4% probability of winning compared to Young Boys' 31.6% and a slim 25% chance of a draw. Because the match ended in a stalemate, the outcome was not aligned with the pre-match market. This resulted in a significant deviation from expectations, negatively impacting Basel, who failed to capitalize on their favored status. On the pitch, Young Boys controlled the overall tempo, holding 55% possession compared to Basel's 45%. While expected goals (xG) data was unavailable to evaluate whether the final score properly reflected the quality of chances created, the teams' scoring efficiency shift was strictly in line with general expectations. Finally, the match was contested cleanly from start to finish; no red cards were issued to either side, meaning the high-scoring draw was dictated purely by the run of play rather than disciplinary disadvantages.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Basel showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Drmic
M. Drmic
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.22
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.38
L. Fähndrich
L. Fähndrich
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.22
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.38
J. Erni
J. Erni
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.22
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.38
M. Sbrissa
M. Sbrissa
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.22
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.38
Basel S. Lichtsteiner
S. Lichtsteiner
VS
Young Boys G. Seoane
G. Seoane
1.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.33
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Winterthur Rank: 46 W
Servette Rank: 60 W
St. Gallen Rank: 64 L
Grasshopper Rank: 49 W
Lausanne Sport Rank: 57 W
Luzern Rank: 59 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lugano Rank: 63 D
Lausanne Sport Rank: 59 W
Thun Rank: 65 L
Luzern Rank: 59 W
Zürich Rank: 52 W
Sion Rank: 59 L
28
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
28 - 22 - 30
30

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Basel
43.36%
Draw
25.03%
Away Young Boys
31.61%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.91
62.51
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Basel
Young Boys
Power Score
63.91
62.51
League Position
4
5
Global Rank
344
388

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Basel — Opponent-weighted form score
Young Boys — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Basel Young Boys

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Basel

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Young Boys

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Basel ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Young Boys
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.00
26.82
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.82
22.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Basel -0.46 Efficiency Index
vs
Young Boys +0.46 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Basel
Young Boys
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Basel ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Young Boys
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Basel Young Boys
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Basel Young Boys
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Basel
Young Boys
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Basel
vs
Young Boys
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Basel Young Boys
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Basel 0.21
Young Boys 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Basel Young Boys
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Basel 0.05
Young Boys 0.08
Basel
Young Boys
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 80 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Basel BAS Home
80 matches
Young Boys YBO Away
Match Record
28
Wins
30
22
Draws
22
30
Losses
28
Goals
128
Goals Scored
134
134
Goals Conceded
128
-6
Goal Difference
+6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:06:40+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Hitz
Switzerland
1 M. Hitz
N. Vouilloz
Switzerland
3 N. Vouilloz
B. Omeragic
Switzerland
4 B. Omeragic
F. Daniliuc
Austria
24 F. Daniliuc
D. Schmid
Substitution
Switzerland
31 D. Schmid
A. Silu
Brazil
5 A. Silu
L. Leroy
Substitution
France
22 L. Leroy
I. Salah
Morocco
21 I. Salah
X. Shaqiri
Substitution
Switzerland
10 X. Shaqiri
B. Traore
Substitution
Ivory Coast
11 B. Traore
A. Ajeti
Substitution
Switzerland
23 A. Ajeti
M. Keller
Switzerland
1 M. Keller
L. Benito
Substitution
Switzerland
23 L. Benito
S. Lauper
Switzerland
30 S. Lauper
G. Wüthrich
Switzerland
5 G. Wüthrich
S. Janko
Substitution
Gambia
17 S. Janko
E. Fernandes
Substitution
Switzerland
6 E. Fernandes
A. Gigovic
Substitution
Sweden
37 A. Gigovic
J. Monteiro
Portugal
77 J. Monteiro
A. Antonio Sanches
Switzerland
10 A. Antonio Sanches
C. Fassnacht
Substitution
Switzerland
16 C. Fassnacht
S. Essende
France
99 S. Essende

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 04, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
St. Jakob-Park
Capacity
37994
Attendance
30859
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Marijan Drmic
Lukas Fähndrich
Jonas Erni
Matthias Sbrissa

Statistics

Possession
BAS
48%
YBO
52%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 3
3 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 8
38 Dangerous attacks 55
45 Possession 55
3 Corners 7
16 Free kicks 6
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

21 Throwins 18
5 Goal Kicks 6
54 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
70 Ball Safe 68
7 Goal Attempts 7
26 Dribble Attempts 11
14 Successful Dribbles 4
1 Assists 2
5 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 1

Attacking

115 Attacks 87
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

6 Key Passes 11
34 Long Passes 34
383 Passes 471
326 Successful Passes 414
85 Successful Passes Percentage 88
65 Successful Long Passes Percentage 56
22 Successful Long Passes 19

Defensive

6 Interceptions 18
1 Saves 3
18 Tackles 21
53 Duels Won 36

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 17
2 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
6 Fouls 16

Lineup

Referee : Lukas Fähndrich

Starting XI ▼

1
Marwin Hitz
Marwin Hitz Goalkeeper
3
Nicolas Vouilloz
Nicolas Vouilloz Defender
4
Becir Omeragic
Becir Omeragic Defender
24
Flavius Daniliuc
Flavius Daniliuc Defender
31
Dominik Schmid
Dominik Schmid Defender
29
Moussa Cissé
Moussa Cissé
Defender90+4'
5
Metinho
Metinho Midfielder
10
Xherdan Shaqiri
Xherdan Shaqiri Midfielder
8
Koba Koindredi
Koba Koindredi
Midfielder74'
11
Bénie Traoré
Bénie Traoré Midfielder
19
Marin Soticek
Marin Soticek
Midfielder81'
21
Ibrahim Salah
Ibrahim Salah Midfielder
22
Léo Leroy
Léo Leroy Midfielder
14
Andrej Bacanin
Andrej Bacanin
Midfielder74'
23
Albian Ajeti
Albian Ajeti Attacker
37
Giacomo Koloto
Giacomo Koloto
Attacker74'
Referee : Lukas Fähndrich

Starting XI ▼

1
Marvin Keller
Marvin Keller Goalkeeper
5
Gregory Wüthrich
Gregory Wüthrich Defender
17
Saidy Janko
Saidy Janko Defender
22
Yan Valery
Yan Valery
Defender77'
23
Loris Benito
Loris Benito Defender
33
Stefan Bukinac
Stefan Bukinac
Defender77'
30
Sandro Lauper
Sandro Lauper Defender
6
Edimilson Fernandes
Edimilson Fernandes Midfielder
13
Dominik Pech
Dominik Pech
Midfielder89'
10
Alvyn Sanches
Alvyn Sanches Midfielder
16
Christian Fassnacht
Christian Fassnacht Midfielder
7
Alan Virginius
Alan Virginius
Attacker64'
37
Armin Gigovic
Armin Gigovic Midfielder
11
Ebrima Colley
Ebrima Colley
Attacker88'
77
Joël Monteiro
Joël Monteiro Midfielder
99
Samuel Essende
Samuel Essende Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Moussa Cissé → Dominik Schmid
10th Substitution
90+4'
90'
Event
Ebrima Colley
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
89'
Event
Dominik Pech → Edimilson Fernandes
9th Substitution
88'
Event
Ebrima Colley → Armin Gigovic
8th Substitution
Event
Marin Soticek → Bénie Traoré
7th Substitution
81'
77'
Event
Stefan Bukinac → Loris Benito
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Yan Valery → Saidy Janko
6th Substitution
Event
Giacomo Koloto → Albian Ajeti
4th Substitution
74'
Event
Metinho 
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
74'
Event
Koba Koindredi → Xherdan Shaqiri  
3rd Substitution
74'
Event
Andrej Bacanin → Léo Leroy
2nd Substitution
74'
Event
Bénie Traoré
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
68'
64'
Event
Alan Virginius → Christian Fassnacht
1st Substitution
64'
Event
Flavius Daniliuc
Left foot shot / 2nd Own Goal
62'
Event
Joël Monteiro
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
55'
Event
Gerardo Seoane
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Xherdan Shaqiri  
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
41'
Event
Sandro Lauper
Header / 1st Own Goal
36'
Event
Stephan Lichtsteiner
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
29'
29'
Event
Edimilson Fernandes
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
27'
Event
Edimilson Fernandes
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
22'
Event
Saidy Janko
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
22'
Event
Stephan Lichtsteiner
5th Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Basel exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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