Union Saint-Gilloise vs Sint-Truiden Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stade Joseph Mariën Sat, 4 Apr - 6:45 PM
Pro League
Union Saint-Gilloise USG
1 Winner 0
Sint-Truiden SIT
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 6:45 PM
Round 1 Championship Round
Guilherme Smith - 62'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match has concluded, with Union Saint-Gilloise securing a 1-0 full-time victory over Sint-Truiden after a completely scoreless first half. The home win aligned perfectly with the pre-match market, where Union Saint-Gilloise entered as clear favorites with a 58.3% probability of winning, compared to a 24.5% chance for a draw and 17.3% for the visitors. Union Saint-Gilloise dictated a slight majority of the play, finishing with 53% possession to Sint-Truiden's 47%. While expected goals (xG) data was unavailable to determine if the outcome was strictly consistent with the underlying chances created, the overall result matched the broader market prediction. However, the narrow 1-0 margin still represented a significant deviation (41.7%) for Union Saint-Gilloise compared to their anticipated level of pre-match dominance. The fixture was contested smoothly, with zero red cards issued to disrupt the flow or impact the tactical balance of either squad. Ultimately, the overall efficiency shift was entirely in line with standard expectations, allowing the stronger home side to translate their marginal possession advantage into a decisive second-half winner.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Union Saint-Gilloise showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

E. Lambrechts

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. De Weirdt

1st Assistant

Q. Blaise

2nd Assistant

S. Bourdeaud'hui

4th Official

Union Saint-Gilloise D. Hubert
D. Hubert
VS
Sint-Truiden W. Vrancken
W. Vrancken
2.05
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.05
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sint-Truiden Rank: 77 W
Dender Rank: 61 W
Genk Rank: 77 W
Westerlo Rank: 70 D
Antwerp Rank: 69 W
Standard Liège Rank: 69 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 84 L
Genk Rank: 77 L
Cercle Brugge Rank: 67 W
Antwerp Rank: 69 L
Dender Rank: 61 W
Zulte-Waregem Rank: 64 W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 2 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Union Saint-Gilloise
58.28%
Draw
24.47%
Away Sint-Truiden
17.25%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
85.44
76.71
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Union Saint-Gilloise
Sint-Truiden
Power Score
85.44
76.71
League Position
1
6
Global Rank
33
86

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Union Saint-Gilloise — Opponent-weighted form score
Sint-Truiden — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Union Saint-Gilloise Sint-Truiden

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Union Saint-Gilloise

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sint-Truiden

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Union Saint-Gilloise ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sint-Truiden
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.02
15.64
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.64
38.02
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Union Saint-Gilloise +2.12 Efficiency Index
vs
Sint-Truiden -2.12 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Union Saint-Gilloise
Sint-Truiden
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Union Saint-Gilloise ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sint-Truiden
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Union Saint-Gilloise Sint-Truiden
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Union Saint-Gilloise Sint-Truiden
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Union Saint-Gilloise
Sint-Truiden
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Union Saint-Gilloise
vs
Sint-Truiden
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Union Saint-Gilloise Sint-Truiden
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Union Saint-Gilloise 0.19
Sint-Truiden 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Union Saint-Gilloise Sint-Truiden
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Union Saint-Gilloise 0.00
Sint-Truiden 0.01
Union Saint-Gilloise
Sint-Truiden
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 12 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Union Saint-Gilloise USG Home
12 matches
Sint-Truiden SIT Away
Match Record
8
Wins
2
2
Draws
2
2
Losses
8
Goals
20
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
20
+9
Goal Difference
-9
Expected Goals
1.98
xG
1.45
1.45
xGA
1.98

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:06:48+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
K. Scherpen
Netherlands
37 K. Scherpen
K. Mac Allister
Argentina
5 K. Mac Allister
C. Burgess
England
16 C. Burgess
R. Sykes
England
26 R. Sykes
A. Khalaili
Israel
25 A. Khalaili
R. Schoofs
Belgium
17 R. Schoofs
A. Zorgane
Algeria
8 A. Zorgane
G. da Silva Carvalho
Substitution
Brazil
11 G. da Silva Carvalho
B. Zeneli
Substitution
Kosovo
23 B. Zeneli
A. El Hadj
Substitution
Belgium
10 A. El Hadj
M. Biondic
Substitution
Germany
9 M. Biondic
Pitch
L. Kokubo
Japan
16 L. Kokubo
T. Hata
Japan
3 T. Hata
S. Taniguchi
Japan
5 S. Taniguchi
L. Mbe Soh
France
4 L. Mbe Soh
R. Vanwesemael
Substitution
Belgium
60 R. Vanwesemael
A. Sissako
Substitution
France
8 A. Sissako
R. Yamamoto
Japan
6 R. Yamamoto
I. Sebaoui
Substitution
Morocco
10 I. Sebaoui
R. Ito
Substitution
Japan
13 R. Ito
A. Muja
Albania
7 A. Muja
K. Goto
Japan
42 K. Goto

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 04, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 1 · Championship Round
Stadium :
Stade Joseph Mariën
Capacity :
50093
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Erik Lambrechts
Jo De Weirdt
Q. Blaise
Simon Bourdeaud'hui

Statistics

Possession
USG
54%
SIT
46%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
3 Shots 3
83 Dangerous attacks 27
53 Possession 47
7 Corners 5
6 Free kicks 9
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Goal Kicks 7
7 Dribble Attempts 3
16 Throwins 28
73 Ball Safe 83
7 Goal Attempts 3
1 Assists 0
4 Substitutions 4

Attacking

128 Attacks 84

Possession

414 Successful Passes 360
28 Long Passes 33
85 Successful Passes Percentage 79
492 Passes 454
12 Key Passes 4

Defensive

18 Tackles 19
12 Interceptions 7
1 Saves 2

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 8

Discipline

9 Fouls 6
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Erik Lambrechts

Starting XI ▼

37
Kjell Scherpen
Kjell Scherpen Goalkeeper
5
Kevin Mac Allister
Kevin Mac Allister Defender
16
Christian Burgess
Christian Burgess Defender
26
Ross Sykes
Ross Sykes Defender
8
Adem Zorgane
Adem Zorgane Midfielder
11
Guilherme Smith
Guilherme Smith Midfielder
27
Louis Patris
Louis Patris
Defender82'
17
Rob Schoofs
Rob Schoofs Midfielder
25
Anan Khalaili
Anan Khalaili Midfielder
9
Mateo Biondic
Mateo Biondic Attacker
13
Kevin Rodríguez
Kevin Rodríguez
Attacker72'
10
Anouar Ait El Hadj
Anouar Ait El Hadj Attacker
14
Ivan Pavlić
Ivan Pavlić
Midfielder90+3'
23
Besfort Zeneli
Besfort Zeneli Attacker
7
Mohammed Fuseini
Mohammed Fuseini
Attacker82'
Referee : Erik Lambrechts

Starting XI ▼

16
Leo Kokubo
Leo Kokubo Goalkeeper
3
Taiga Hata
Taiga Hata Defender
4
Loïc Mbe Soh
Loïc Mbe Soh Defender
5
Shogo Taniguchi
Shogo Taniguchi Defender
60
Robert-Jan Vanwesemael
Robert-Jan Vanwesemael Defender
26
Visar Musliu
Visar Musliu
Defender69'
6
Rihito Yamamoto
Rihito Yamamoto Midfielder
7
Arbnor Muja
Arbnor Muja Midfielder
8
Abdoulaye Sissako
Abdoulaye Sissako Midfielder
14
Ryan Merlen
Ryan Merlen
Midfielder79'
10
Ilias Sebaoui
Ilias Sebaoui Midfielder
77
Oumar Diouf
Oumar Diouf
Attacker68'
13
Ryotaro Ito
Ryotaro Ito Midfielder
38
Kaito Matsuzawa
Kaito Matsuzawa
Attacker79'
42
Keisuke Goto
Keisuke Goto Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Christian Burgess
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Ivan Pavlić → Anouar Ait El Hadj
8th Substitution
90+3'
Event
Adem Zorgane
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
87'
Event
Mohammed Fuseini → Besfort Zeneli
6th Substitution
82'
Event
Louis Patris → Guilherme Smith
7th Substitution
82'
79'
Event
Kaito Matsuzawa → Ryotaro Ito
4th Substitution
79'
Event
Ryan Merlen → Abdoulaye Sissako
5th Substitution
Event
Kevin Rodríguez → Mateo Biondic
3rd Substitution
72'
Event
Kevin Mac Allister
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
69'
69'
Event
Visar Musliu → Robert-Jan Vanwesemael
2nd Substitution
68'
Event
Oumar Diouf → Ilias Sebaoui
1st Substitution
63'
Event
Robert-Jan Vanwesemael
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Guilherme Smith
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
62'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Union Saint-Gilloise exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Sint-Truiden preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.