Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Van Donge & De Roo Stadion Sat, 4 Apr - 7:00 PM
Eredivisie
Excelsior EXC
0 Winner 2
NEC Nijmegen NEC
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 7:00 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
|
Goal
Başar Önal - 71'
Bryan Linssen - 30'

CONTEXT

The match between Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen has finished, with the away side securing a comfortable 2-0 victory. NEC Nijmegen established an early advantage, leading 1-0 at halftime before adding a second-half goal to seal the full-time result. The outcome aligned perfectly with the pre-match market, which favored the visitors. NEC Nijmegen entered the game with a 49.4% probability of winning, compared to Excelsior's 26.5% chance and a 24.1% likelihood of a draw. By securing the win, the final result represented a significant deviation level in favor of NEC Nijmegen, confirming their pre-game status as the stronger team. On the pitch, NEC Nijmegen controlled the tempo, holding 55% of the possession to Excelsior's 45%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, it cannot be determined if the final scoreline was consistent with the underlying shot quality. However, the overall efficiency shift was completely in line with expectations. The match also proceeded smoothly without any major disciplinary disruptions, as neither side received a red card.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: NEC Nijmegen showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Bos

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

E. Koopman

1st Assistant

S. Nanninga

2nd Assistant

M. Perez

4th Official

Excelsior R. den Uil
R. den Uil
VS
NEC Nijmegen D. Schreuder
D. Schreuder
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.81
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Heracles Almelo Rank: 57 D
Feyenoord Rank: 74 L
SC Heerenveen Rank: 70 L
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: 65 L
Fortuna Sittard Rank: 62 L
AZ Rank: 74 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
SC Heerenveen Rank: 69 D
PSV Rank: 87 W
FC Volendam Rank: 59 W
Fortuna Sittard Rank: 62 L
Ajax Rank: 75 D
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: 67 D
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 3 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Excelsior
26.47%
Draw
24.09%
Away NEC Nijmegen
49.44%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
49.85
75.1
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Excelsior
NEC Nijmegen
Power Score
49.85
75.1
League Position
16
2
Global Rank
530
105

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Excelsior — Opponent-weighted form score
NEC Nijmegen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Excelsior NEC Nijmegen

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Excelsior

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

NEC Nijmegen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Excelsior ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy NEC Nijmegen
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.22
27.09
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.09
23.22
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Excelsior -0.37 Efficiency Index
vs
NEC Nijmegen +0.37 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Excelsior
NEC Nijmegen
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Excelsior ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy NEC Nijmegen
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Excelsior NEC Nijmegen
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Excelsior NEC Nijmegen
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Excelsior
NEC Nijmegen
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Excelsior
vs
NEC Nijmegen
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Excelsior NEC Nijmegen
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Excelsior 0.31
NEC Nijmegen 0.21
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Excelsior NEC Nijmegen
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Excelsior 0.03
NEC Nijmegen 0.00
Excelsior
NEC Nijmegen
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Excelsior EXC Home
17 matches
NEC Nijmegen NEC Away
Match Record
7
Wins
7
3
Draws
3
7
Losses
7
Goals
19
Goals Scored
27
27
Goals Conceded
19
-8
Goal Difference
+8

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:06:57+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-4-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
S. van Gassel
Netherlands
1 S. van Gassel
I. Bronkhorst
Substitution
Netherlands
2 I. Bronkhorst
R. Meissen
Netherlands
3 R. Meissen
C. Widell
Sweden
4 C. Widell
L. Schouten
Netherlands
14 L. Schouten
A. Zagre
Substitution
France
12 A. Zagre
D. Sanches Fernandes
Substitution
Netherlands
30 D. Sanches Fernandes
N. Naujoks
Netherlands
10 N. Naujoks
L. Hartjes
Substitution
Netherlands
20 L. Hartjes
E. Hansson
Substitution
Sweden
7 E. Hansson
G. de Regt
Netherlands
11 G. de Regt
Pitch
G. Crettaz
Argentina
1 G. Crettaz
D. Fonville
Substitution
Netherlands
24 D. Fonville
P. Sandler
Netherlands
3 P. Sandler
E. Dasa
Substitution
Israel
14 E. Dasa
B. Onal
Substitution
Netherlands
11 B. Onal
K. Sano
Japan
23 K. Sano
D. Nejašmić
Croatia
6 D. Nejašmić
S. Ouaissa
Netherlands
25 S. Ouaissa
N. Lebreton
France
20 N. Lebreton
T. Chery
Suriname
10 T. Chery
B. Linssen
Substitution
Netherlands
30 B. Linssen

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 04, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Van Donge & De Roo Stadion
Capacity :
4500
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Alex Bos
Erik Koopman
Sjoerd Nanninga
Martin Perez

Statistics

Possession
EXC
46%
NEC
54%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 2
9 Shots 12
29 Dangerous attacks 58
45 Possession 55
2 Corners 5
9 Free kicks 8

Match Overview

72 Ball Safe 62
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 64
18 Throwins 26
10 Goal Kicks 5
0 Assists 2
4 Successful Dribbles 9
11 Dribble Attempts 14
17 Successful Headers 13
5 Substitutions 4
0 Injuries 1
6 Goal Attempts 9

Attacking

86 Attacks 121
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

76 Successful Passes Percentage 82
368 Passes 450
278 Successful Passes 368
79 Long Passes 59
8 Key Passes 9
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 34
34 Successful Long Passes 20

Defensive

3 Saves 5
43 Duels Won 40
15 Tackles 10
8 Interceptions 6

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 15
1 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

8 Fouls 9
2 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Alex Bos

Starting XI ▼

1
Stijn van Gassel
Stijn van Gassel Goalkeeper
2
Ilias Bronkhorst
Ilias Bronkhorst Defender
6
Adam Carlén
Adam Carlén
Midfielder90+1'
3
Rick Meissen
Rick Meissen Defender
4
Casper Widell
Casper Widell Defender
12
Arthur Zagré
Arthur Zagré Defender
15
Simon Janssen
Simon Janssen
Defender76'
14
Lewis Schouten
Lewis Schouten Defender
7
Emil Hansson
Emil Hansson Midfielder
23
Irakli Yegoian
Irakli Yegoian
Midfielder60'
10
Noah Naujoks
Noah Naujoks Midfielder
20
Lennard Hartjes
Lennard Hartjes Midfielder
29
Mike van Duinen
Mike van Duinen
Attacker76'
30
Derensili Sanches Fernandes
Derensili Sanches Fernandes Midfielder
9
Szymon Wlodarczyk
Szymon Wlodarczyk
Attacker90+1'
11
Gyan de Regt
Gyan de Regt Attacker
Referee : Alex Bos

Starting XI ▼

1
Gonzalo Crettaz
Gonzalo Crettaz Goalkeeper
3
Philippe Sandler
Philippe Sandler Defender
14
Eli Dasa
Eli Dasa Defender
2
Brayann Pereira
Brayann Pereira
Defender81'
24
Deveron Fonville
Deveron Fonville Defender
4
Ahmetcan Kaplan
Ahmetcan Kaplan
Defender85'
6
Darko Nejasmic
Darko Nejasmic Midfielder
11
Başar Önal
Başar Önal Midfielder
71
Dirk Proper
Dirk Proper
Midfielder80'
23
Kodai Sano
Kodai Sano Midfielder
25
Sami Ouaissa
Sami Ouaissa Midfielder
10
Tjaronn Chery
Tjaronn Chery Attacker
20
Noé Lebreton
Noé Lebreton Attacker
30
Bryan Linssen
Bryan Linssen Attacker
9
Danilo
Danilo
Attacker81'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Adam Carlén → Ilias Bronkhorst
8th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Szymon Wlodarczyk → Derensili Sanches Fernandes
9th Substitution
90+1'
85'
Event
Ahmetcan Kaplan → Deveron Fonville
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Danilo → Bryan Linssen
5th Substitution
81'
Event
Brayann Pereira → Eli Dasa
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Dirk Proper → Başar Önal
4th Substitution
Event
Simon Janssen → Arthur Zagré
3rd Substitution
76'
Event
Mike van Duinen → Lennard Hartjes
2nd Substitution
76'
71'
Event
Başar Önal
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Irakli Yegoian → Emil Hansson
1st Substitution
60'
1ST-HALF
30'
Event
Bryan Linssen
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Excelsior: Szymon Wlodarczyk replaces Derensili Sanches Fernandes.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Rick Meissen of Excelsior.
90
Update Update
Noé Lebreton from N.E.C. won a free kick on the left wing.
90
Attempt Attempt
Tjaronn Chery from N.E.C. had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box, but it went just to the left. Noé Lebreton provided the assist.
90
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Noah Naujoks from Excelsior.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 3 minutes of added time.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Excelsior: Adam Carlén replaces Ilias Bronkhorst.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Excelsior losing 0-2 to N.E.C.
88
Update Update
Derensili Sanches Fernandes from Excelsior won a free kick on the right wing.
88
Corner Corner
Danilo from N.E.C. attempts an attack, heading the ball from the center of the box, but Stijn van Gassel from Excelsior makes a save in the top left corner. The assist came from Tjaronn Chery with a cross.
88
Update Update
Fouled by Ahmetcan Kaplan of N.E.C.
87
Corner Corner
N.E.C. is awarded a corner after Lewis Schouten concedes it.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for N.E.C.: Ahmetcan Kaplan replaces Deveron Fonville due to injury.
84
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Deveron Fonville of N.E.C.
84
Attempt Attempt
Mike van Duinen from Excelsior missed a header from the center of the box. The assist was provided by Irakli Yegoian.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for N.E.C.: Brayann Pereira replaces Eli Dasa.
81
Update Update
Noah Naujoks from Excelsior won a free kick in an attacking position.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for N.E.C.: Danilo comes on for Bryan Linssen.
80
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Gyan de Regt from Excelsior takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it's saved by goalkeeper Gonzalo Crettaz from N.E.C. The assist comes from Derensili Sanches Fernandes.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for N.E.C.: Dirk Proper replaces Basar Önal.
79
Update Update
Foul committed by Mike van Duinen of Excelsior.
79
Update Update
Darko Nejasmic from N.E.C. won a free kick in defense.
78
Attempt Attempt
Sami Ouaissa from N.E.C. misses a chance with a left-footed shot from outside the box that goes high and wide to the left. Noé Lebreton provided the assist.
77
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Ilias Bronkhorst from Excelsior.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Excelsior: Mike van Duinen replaces Lennard Hartjes.
76
Update Update
Basar Önal from N.E.C. won a free kick on the left wing.
76
Update Update
Fouled by Lewis Schouten of Excelsior.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Excelsior: Simon Janssen replaces Arthur Zagré.
73
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Derensili Sanches Fernandes from Excelsior shot with his left foot from the center of the box.
71
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! N.E.C. leads 2-0 against Excelsior. Basar Önal scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the right corner, assisted by Sami Ouaissa's through ball.
67
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Gyan de Regt from Excelsior takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it's saved by N.E.C. goalkeeper Gonzalo Crettaz. The assist was provided by Ilias Bronkhorst.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Excelsior after Gonzalo Crettaz concedes.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Excelsior after Gonzalo Crettaz concedes.
63
Corner Corner
Derensili Sanches Fernandes from Excelsior attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the right corner by Gonzalo Crettaz of N.E.C. The assist came from Noah Naujoks.
62
Update Update
Handball committed by Basar Önal of N.E.C.
61
Corner Corner
N.E.C. is awarded a corner after Stijn van Gassel concedes.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to N.E.C. after Stijn van Gassel concedes.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Excelsior: Irakli Yegoian replaces Emil Hansson.
59
Update Update
Gyan de Regt from Excelsior won a free kick in the attacking area.
59
Update Update
Gyan de Regt from Excelsior won a free kick in an attacking position.
57
Attempt Attempt
Arthur Zagré's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
57
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Gyan de Regt of Excelsior heads the ball from the center of the box, but it is saved in the right corner by Gonzalo Crettaz of N.E.C. The assist came from Emil Hansson's cross.
53
Update Update
Fouled by Derensili Sanches Fernandes of Excelsior.
53
Update Update
Basar Önal from N.E.C. won a free kick in defense.
50
Attempt Attempt
Bryan Linssen from N.E.C. had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the six-yard box, but it went wide.
46
Corner Corner
N.E.C. is awarded a corner after Lewis Schouten concedes.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Excelsior 0, N.E.C. 1.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Excelsior 0, N.E.C. 1.
42
Update Update
Foul committed by Bryan Linssen of N.E.C.
42
Update Update
Casper Widell of Excelsior won a free kick in defense.
39
Update Update
Offside called against N.E.C. Bryan Linssen is offside.
38
Update Update
Noah Naujoks from Excelsior commits a foul.
38
Update Update
Darko Nejasmic from N.E.C. won a free kick on the left wing.
33
Attempt Attempt
Tjaronn Chery's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. Basar Önal provided the assist.
30
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! N.E.C. takes the lead 1-0 against Excelsior. Bryan Linssen scores with a right-footed shot from inside the six-yard box, placing it to the left side of the center of the goal. Darko Nejasmic provides the assist.
29
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Gyan de Regt from Excelsior takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it is saved by goalkeeper Gonzalo Crettaz from N.E.C., with an assist from Emil Hansson.
28
Update Update
Offside called against Excelsior. Lewis Schouten is offside.
27
Update Update
Offside called against N.E.C. Bryan Linssen is in an offside position.
25
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to N.E.C. after Ilias Bronkhorst concedes.
22
Update Update
Arthur Zagré from Excelsior commits a foul.
22
Update Update
Sami Ouaissa from N.E.C. won a free kick in defense.
17
Update Update
Derensili Sanches Fernandes from Excelsior won a free kick in defense.
17
Update Update
Kodai Sano from N.E.C. won a free kick in defense.
17
Update Update
Foul committed by Deveron Fonville of N.E.C.
16
Attempt Attempt
Gyan de Regt's shot from the center of the box is blocked. Emil Hansson provided the assist.
15
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Noé Lebreton from N.E.C.
13
Attempt Attempt
Sami Ouaissa of N.E.C. attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved by Stijn van Gassel, the goalkeeper for Excelsior. The assist came from Bryan Linssen.
12
Update Update
Offside called against Excelsior. Gyan de Regt is offside.
11
Update Update
Eli Dasa from N.E.C. won a free kick in defense.
11
Update Update
Lennard Hartjes from Excelsior commits a foul.
10
Attempt Attempt
Eli Dasa's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Tjaronn Chery provided the assist.
8
Corner Corner
Excelsior wins a corner after Kodai Sano concedes.
7
Update Update
Foul committed by Darko Nejasmic of N.E.C.
7
Update Update
Noah Naujoks from Excelsior won a free kick on the right wing.
6
Update Update
Fouled by Basar Önal of N.E.C.
6
Update Update
Ilias Bronkhorst from Excelsior won a free kick in defense.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to N.E.C. after Derensili Sanches Fernandes concedes.
3
Update Update
Fouled by Deveron Fonville of N.E.C.
3
Update Update
Derensili Sanches Fernandes from Excelsior won a free kick in an attacking position.
2
Update Update
Kodai Sano from N.E.C. misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, sending the ball high and wide to the left. The assist was provided by Basar Önal.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: NEC Nijmegen exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.