Oxford United vs Hull City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
The Kassam Stadium Fri, 3 Apr - 2:00 PM
Championship
Oxford United OXF
1 – 1
Hull City HUL
Full Time Fri, 3 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 40 Regular Season
Cameron Brannagan - 13' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Mohamed Belloumi - 4'

CONTEXT

The match between Oxford United and Hull City has finished, ending in a 1-1 draw. The teams were deadlocked early on, heading into halftime tied at one goal apiece, and neither side could find a winner in the second half. This full-time result was not aligned with the pre-match market. Oxford United entered the contest as slight favorites with a 40% win probability, compared to a 32.4% chance for Hull City and a 27.6% likelihood of a draw. Ultimately, the outcome represented a significant deviation from these initial expectations, particularly involving Hull City. Out on the pitch, Hull City largely dictated the flow of the game, controlling a commanding 66% of the possession compared to Oxford United's 34%. Despite this territorial dominance from the away side, expected goals (xG) data was unavailable, making it impossible to evaluate if the draw was consistent with the underlying quality of chances created by either club. Both teams kept all eleven players on the pitch, as no red cards were issued to alter the tactical balance. Without any major disciplinary disruptions, the overall efficiency shift remained firmly in line with expectations to cap off a hard-fought stalemate.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Hull City showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Stevens
M. Stevens
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.46
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.22
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
C. Gough
C. Gough
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.46
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.22
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
L. Doughty
L. Doughty
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.46
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.22
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
O. Langford
O. Langford
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.46
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.22
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
Oxford United M. Bloomfield
M. Bloomfield
VS
Hull City S. Jakirović
S. Jakirović
1.06
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.84
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Southampton Rank: 74 L
Charlton Athletic Rank: 67 D
Blackburn Rovers Rank: 65 W
Preston North End Rank: 66 W
West Bromwich Albion Rank: 66 W
Stoke City Rank: 68 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: 53 W
West Bromwich Albion Rank: 63 L
Wrexham Rank: 74 W
Millwall Rank: 75 L
Ipswich Town Rank: 77 L
Portsmouth Rank: 65 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Oxford United
40.01%
Draw
27.59%
Away Hull City
32.4%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.5
70.78
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Oxford United
Hull City
Power Score
64.5
70.78
League Position
23
5
Global Rank
335
174

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Oxford United — Opponent-weighted form score
Hull City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Oxford United Hull City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Oxford United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hull City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Oxford United ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hull City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
52.65
16.82
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.82
52.65
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Oxford United +3.47 Efficiency Index
vs
Hull City -3.47 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Oxford United
Hull City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Oxford United ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hull City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Oxford United Hull City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Oxford United Hull City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Oxford United
Hull City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Oxford United
vs
Hull City
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Oxford United Hull City
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Oxford United 0.42
Hull City 0.21
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Oxford United Hull City
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Oxford United 0.02
Hull City 0.03
Oxford United
Hull City
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Oxford United OXF Home
3 matches
Hull City HUL Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
4
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-04T00:02:06+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Cumming
England
1 J. Cumming
S. Long
England
2 S. Long
M. Helik
Poland
6 M. Helik
C. Brown
England
3 C. Brown
R. Roosken
Substitution
Netherlands
12 R. Roosken
Y. Konak
Substitution
Turkey
5 Y. Konak
C. Brannagan
England
8 C. Brannagan
S. Mills
England
17 S. Mills
J. Donley
Substitution
Northern Ireland
33 J. Donley
M. Peart-Harris
Substitution
England
44 M. Peart-Harris
W. Lankshear
Substitution
England
27 W. Lankshear
D. Phillips
England
12 D. Phillips
L. Coyle
England
2 L. Coyle
C. Hughes
Substitution
England
4 C. Hughes
O. Ibidapo Ajayi
Nigeria
6 O. Ibidapo Ajayi
C. Drameh
England
18 C. Drameh
M. Crooks
England
25 M. Crooks
J. Lundstram
Substitution
England
5 J. Lundstram
K. Joseph
Substitution
Scotland
22 K. Joseph
J. Gelhardt
Substitution
England
21 J. Gelhardt
M. Belloumi
Substitution
Algeria
10 M. Belloumi
O. McBurnie
Scotland
9 O. McBurnie

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 03, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 40 · Regular Season
Stadium
The Kassam Stadium
Capacity
12500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Mark Stevens
C. Gough
Leigh Doughty
Oliver Langford

Statistics

Possession
OXF
39%
HUL
61%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 1
16 Shots 9
38 Dangerous attacks 42
34 Possession 66
1 Corners 5
9 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

7 Goal Attempts 3
66 Ball Safe 63
33 Throwins 18
13 Successful Headers 13
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
0 Assists 1
9 Goal Kicks 7
1 Penalties 0
5 Successful Dribbles 4
4 Dribble Attempts 4
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

85 Attacks 122

Possession

23 Long Passes 22
63 Successful Passes Percentage 81
165 Successful Passes 419
263 Passes 515
9 Key Passes 7

Defensive

10 Interceptions 12
17 Tackles 14
1 Saves 3
46 Duels Won 41

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 18

Discipline

10 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Oliver Langford

Starting XI ▼

1
Jamie Cumming
Jamie Cumming Goalkeeper
2
Sam Long
Sam Long Defender
3
Ciaron Maurice Brown
Ciaron Maurice Brown Defender
6
Michal Helik
Michal Helik Defender
12
Ruben Roosken
Ruben Roosken Defender
15
Brodie Gilmore Spencer
Brodie Gilmore Spencer
Defender46'
5
Yunus Konak
Yunus Konak Midfielder
4
Will Vaulks
Will Vaulks
Midfielder77'
8
Cameron Brannagan
Cameron Brannagan Midfielder
17
Stanley Mills
Stanley Mills Midfielder
33
Jamie Paul Donley
Jamie Paul Donley Midfielder
9
Mark Harris
Mark Harris
Attacker77'
44
Myles Peart-Harris
Myles Peart-Harris Midfielder
32
Jin-woo Jeon
Jin-woo Jeon
Midfielder76'
27
Will Lankshear
Will Lankshear Attacker
16
Nik Prelec
Nik Prelec
Attacker90+2'
Referee : Oliver Langford

Starting XI ▼

12
Dillon Phillips
Dillon Phillips Goalkeeper
2
Lewie Coyle
Lewie Coyle Defender
4
Charlie Hughes
Charlie Hughes Defender
15
John Egan
John Egan
Defender46'
6
Semi Ajayi
Semi Ajayi Defender
18
Cody Drameh
Cody Drameh Defender
5
John Lundstram
John Lundstram Midfielder
33
Toby Collyer
Toby Collyer
Midfielder83'
10
Mohamed Belloumi
Mohamed Belloumi Midfielder
26
Kieran Dowell
Kieran Dowell
Midfielder64'
21
Joe Gelhardt
Joe Gelhardt Midfielder
36
Lewis Koumas
Lewis Koumas
Attacker64'
22
Kyle Joseph
Kyle Joseph Midfielder
7
Liam Millar
Liam Millar
Attacker83'
25
Matt Crooks
Matt Crooks Midfielder
9
Oliver McBurnie
Oliver McBurnie Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Nik Prelec → Will Lankshear
10th Substitution
90+2'
83'
Event
Toby Collyer → John Lundstram
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Liam Millar → Kyle Joseph
9th Substitution
Event
Mark Harris → Jamie Paul Donley
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Will Vaulks → Yunus Konak
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Jin-woo Jeon → Myles Peart-Harris
5th Substitution
76'
64'
Event
Lewis Koumas → Joe Gelhardt
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Kieran Dowell → Mohamed Belloumi
3rd Substitution
Event
Brodie Gilmore Spencer → Ruben Roosken
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
John Egan → Charlie Hughes
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Cameron Brannagan
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
13'
12'
Event
Charlie Hughes
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
4'
Event
Mohamed Belloumi
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Foul committed by Oliver McBurnie of Hull City.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
90
Corner Corner
Hull City wins a corner after Sam Long concedes.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Mark Harris from Oxford United had a left-footed shot from a few meters out that went just to the left. The assist came from Stanley Mills, who provided a cross after a quick break.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Nik Prelec replaces Will Lankshear.
90
Update Update
Mark Harris from Oxford United committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Mark Harris from Oxford United won a free kick in an attacking position.
90
Update Update
Kieran Dowell from Hull City won a free kick in defense.
90
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Will Vaulks from Oxford United takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but Dillon Phillips from Hull City saves it in the left corner.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with the match finishing 1-1 between Oxford United and Hull City.
90
Update Update
Jamie Cumming of Oxford United won a free kick in defense.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Toby Collyer of Hull City.
85
Corner Corner
Hull City win a corner after Cameron Brannagan concedes.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hull City: Toby Collyer replaces John Lundstram.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hull City: Liam Millar replaces Kyle Joseph.
80
Update Update
Dillon Phillips of Hull City won a free kick in defense.
80
Update Update
Foul committed by Michal Helik of Oxford United.
80
Update Update
Foul committed by Michal Helik of Oxford United.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Oxford United after a concession by John Lundstram.
78
Update Update
Fouled by Brodie Spencer of Oxford United.
78
Update Update
Kyle Joseph from Hull City won a free kick on the right wing.
77
Attempt Attempt
Mark Harris from Oxford United had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from over 35 yards, but it went wide.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Will Vaulks replaces Yunus Konak.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Mark Harris replaces Jamie Donley.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Will Vaulks replaces Yunus Konak.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Mark Harris replaces Jamie Donley.
75
Update Update
Kieran Dowell from Hull City committed a foul.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Jeon Jin-Woo replaces Myles Peart-Harris.
75
Update Update
Myles Peart-Harris from Oxford United won a free kick in defense.
74
Attempt Attempt
Will Lankshear's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
74
Attempt Attempt
Ciaron Brown's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Will Lankshear provided the assist.
68
Update Update
Foul committed by Stanley Mills for Oxford United.
68
Update Update
Lewie Coyle of Hull City won a free kick on the left wing.
67
Update Update
Ciaron Brown fouled an Oxford United player.
67
Update Update
Semi Ajayi of Hull City won a free kick in defense.
66
Update Update
Kieran Dowell from Hull City commits a foul.
66
Update Update
Myles Peart-Harris from Oxford United won a free kick on the left wing.
65
Corner Corner
Missed chance. John Lundstram from Hull City shot with his left foot from outside the box after a corner.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hull City: Lewis Koumas replaces Joe Gelhardt.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hull City: Kieran Dowell replaces Mohamed Belloumi.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Hull City after Brodie Spencer concedes.
61
Update Update
Foul committed by Oliver McBurnie of Hull City.
61
Update Update
Sam Long from Oxford United won a free kick in defense.
57
Attempt Attempt
Matt Crooks of Hull City has a shot blocked from the left side of the box, assisted by Oliver McBurnie.
57
Attempt Attempt
Mohamed Belloumi from Hull City had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from the right side of the box but missing to the left.
57
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Matt Crooks from Hull City shoots with his right foot from the center of the box, just missing the goal. The assist was provided by Oliver McBurnie with a header.
56
Attempt Attempt
John Lundstram's shot from the center of the box is blocked. Semi Ajayi provided the assist.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Hull City after Myles Peart-Harris concedes.
54
Update Update
Foul committed by Kyle Joseph of Hull City.
54
Update Update
Sam Long from Oxford United won a free kick in defense.
51
Corner Corner
Cameron Brannagan of Oxford United attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from outside the box, but Dillon Phillips of Hull City saves it in the right corner. The assist came from Myles Peart-Harris.
49
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Michal Helik from Oxford United.
48
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Michal Helik from Oxford United headed the ball from a few meters out.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by Matt Crooks for Hull City.
47
Update Update
Yunus Konak from Oxford United won a free kick in defense.
46
Update Update
Offside called against Hull City. Oliver McBurnie is offside.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with the score at Oxford United 1, Hull City 1.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Brodie Spencer replaces Ruben Roosken.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Hull City: John Egan replaces Charlie Hughes.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the match tied at 1-1 between Oxford United and Hull City.
44
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Mohamed Belloumi from Hull City had a left-footed shot from outside the box that was blocked.
43
Update Update
Semi Ajayi of Hull City won a free kick in defense.
43
Update Update
Lewie Coyle of Hull City won a free kick on the left wing.
43
Update Update
Foul by Will Lankshear of Oxford United.
42
Update Update
Offside called against Oxford United. Myles Peart-Harris is offside.
41
Attempt Attempt
Myles Peart-Harris of Oxford United attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from inside the six-yard box, but Dillon Phillips, the Hull City goalkeeper, saves it in the center of the goal. The assist was provided by Ciaron Brown.
40
Corner Corner
Kyle Joseph of Hull City attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but Jamie Cumming of Oxford United saves it in the left corner. The assist was provided by Mohamed Belloumi.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Hull City after Jamie Cumming concedes.
32
Update Update
Foul committed by Will Lankshear of Oxford United.
32
Update Update
Semi Ajayi of Hull City won a free kick in defense.
27
Attempt Attempt
Ciaron Brown's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Michal Helik.
25
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Mohamed Belloumi of Hull City shoots with his left foot from outside the box, but it goes just wide of the top left corner. Joe Gelhardt provided the assist.
24
Update Update
Semi Ajayi of Hull City won a free kick in defense.
24
Update Update
Foul committed by Will Lankshear of Oxford United.
23
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Jamie Donley from Oxford United took a right-footed shot from outside the box.
21
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Will Lankshear of Oxford United headed the ball from a few meters out.
13
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Cameron Brannagan scores for Oxford United with a right-footed shot into the top right corner. The match remains 1-1.
12
Update Update
Charlie Hughes of Hull City concedes a penalty after committing a foul in the penalty area.
12
Update Update
Penalty awarded to Oxford United as Will Lankshear is fouled in the penalty area.
12
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Charlie Hughes from Hull City receives a yellow card for a foul.
11
Update Update
Cody Drameh of Hull City commits a foul.
11
Update Update
Myles Peart-Harris from Oxford United won a free kick in defense.
9
Update Update
Foul committed by Yunus Konak of Oxford United.
9
Update Update
Lewie Coyle of Hull City won a free kick in defense.
4
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Hull City takes the lead 1-0 with Mohamed Belloumi scoring from the center of the box with a left-footed shot into the right corner, assisted by Semi Ajayi.
3
Attempt Attempt
Will Lankshear's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Jamie Donley provided the assist.
1
Update Update
Yunus Konak from Oxford United won a free kick in an attacking position.
1
Update Update
Foul committed by Joe Gelhardt of Hull City.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Hull City exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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