West Bromwich Albion vs Wrexham Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
The Hawthorns Fri, 3 Apr - 2:00 PM
Championship
West Bromwich Albion WBA
2 – 2
Wrexham WXH
Full Time Fri, 3 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 40 Regular Season
George Dobson - 26' (Own Goal)
Josh Maja - 38' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Josh Windass - 47'
George Dobson - 62'

CONTEXT

The match between West Bromwich Albion and Wrexham has finished, ending in a 2-2 draw. West Bromwich Albion started strongly, taking a commanding 2-0 lead into the halftime break. However, Wrexham fought back in the second half to secure a resilient equalizer, ensuring a share of the spoils at full-time. Before kickoff, West Bromwich Albion were the clear market favorites with a 44.3% probability of victory, compared to Wrexham's 27.5% chance and a 28.2% likelihood of a draw. Because the final result failed to align with the pre-match market, Wrexham generated a significant deviation from pre-game expectations. While expected goals (xG) data was unavailable to determine if the outcome matched underlying chance quality, the run of play was highly competitive. Wrexham edged the overall ball control with 52% possession compared to the home side's 48%. The efficiency shift for the fixture was completely in line with standard performance levels, as both sides capitalized on their moments. Furthermore, the match concluded without major disciplinary interventions, as zero red cards were issued to either team.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Wrexham showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Williams
D. Williams
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.46
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.22
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
C. Fitch
C. Fitch
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.46
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.22
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
S. Mather
S. Mather
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.46
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.22
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
A. Madley
A. Madley
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.46
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.22
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
West Bromwich Albion J. Morrison
J. Morrison
VS
Wrexham P. Parkinson
P. Parkinson
0.94
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.74
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bristol City Rank: 68 W
Hull City Rank: 71 W
Southampton Rank: 73 D
Sheffield United Rank: 71 D
Oxford United Rank: 65 L
Charlton Athletic Rank: 67 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sheffield United Rank: 71 W
Watford Rank: 66 L
Swansea City Rank: 68 W
Hull City Rank: 71 L
Charlton Athletic Rank: 67 W
Portsmouth Rank: 65 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home West Bromwich Albion
44.29%
Draw
28.17%
Away Wrexham
27.54%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.1
66.62
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
West Bromwich Albion
Wrexham
Power Score
66.1
66.62
League Position
20
6
Global Rank
293
122

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
West Bromwich Albion — Opponent-weighted form score
Wrexham — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) West Bromwich Albion Wrexham

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

West Bromwich Albion

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Wrexham

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

West Bromwich Albion ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Wrexham
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.60
29.71
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.71
22.60
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
West Bromwich Albion -0.69 Efficiency Index
vs
Wrexham +0.69 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
West Bromwich Albion
Wrexham
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

West Bromwich Albion ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Wrexham
Created Set-piece attacking threat
West Bromwich Albion Wrexham
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
West Bromwich Albion Wrexham
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
West Bromwich Albion
Wrexham
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
West Bromwich Albion
vs
Wrexham
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
West Bromwich Albion Wrexham
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
West Bromwich Albion 0.24
Wrexham 0.27
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
West Bromwich Albion Wrexham
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
West Bromwich Albion 0.04
Wrexham 0.05
West Bromwich Albion
Wrexham
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

West Bromwich Albion WBA Home
1 matches
Wrexham WXH Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
3
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-04T00:02:41+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
J. Griffiths
England
20 J. Griffiths
D. Imray
England
30 D. Imray
N. Phillips
England
3 N. Phillips
G. Campbell
United States
6 G. Campbell
C. Styles
Hungary
4 C. Styles
J. Jimoh
Substitution
England
18 J. Jimoh
J. Molumby
Republic of Ireland
8 J. Molumby
O. Diakite
Mali
17 O. Diakite
I. Price
Northern Ireland
21 I. Price
A. Heggebø
Norway
19 A. Heggebø
J. Maja
Substitution
Nigeria
9 J. Maja
A. Okonkwo
England
1 A. Okonkwo
C. Doyle
England
2 C. Doyle
D. Hyam
Scotland
5 D. Hyam
M. Cleworth
Wales
4 M. Cleworth
G. Thomason
England
14 G. Thomason
G. Dobson
England
15 G. Dobson
Z. Vyner
Substitution
England
26 Z. Vyner
I. Kabore
Burkina Faso
12 I. Kabore
L. O'Brien
England
27 L. O'Brien
J. Windass
Substitution
England
10 J. Windass
S. Smith
Substitution
England
28 S. Smith

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 03, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 40 · Regular Season
Stadium
The Hawthorns
Capacity
26445
Attendance
25927
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Darren Williams
Carl Fitch
Simon Mather
Andrew Madley

Statistics

Possession
WBA
48%
WXH
52%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 4
9 Shots 13
37 Dangerous attacks 49
48 Possession 52
4 Corners 6
7 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

2 Substitutions 3
108 Ball Safe 90
4 Goal Attempts 12
1 Injuries 1
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
12 Successful Headers 23
13 Throwins 23
15 Dribble Attempts 11
12 Goal Kicks 4
1 Penalties 0
5 Successful Dribbles 4
0 Assists 2

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 3
99 Attacks 81

Possession

38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
24 Successful Long Passes 25
415 Passes 432
79 Successful Passes Percentage 80
327 Successful Passes 347
64 Long Passes 66
4 Key Passes 10

Defensive

37 Duels Won 54
12 Tackles 19
5 Interceptions 8
1 Saves 3

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 27
2 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

0 Offsides 3
9 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Andrew Madley

Starting XI ▼

20
Josh Griffiths
Josh Griffiths Goalkeeper
3
Nat Phillips
Nat Phillips Defender
4
Callum Styles
Callum Styles Defender
6
George Campbell
George Campbell Defender
30
D. Imray
D. Imray Defender
8
Jayson Molumby
Jayson Molumby Midfielder
17
Ousmane Diakité
Ousmane Diakité Midfielder
18
Jamaldeen Jimoh-Aloba
Jamaldeen Jimoh-Aloba Midfielder
29
Charlie Taylor
Charlie Taylor
Defender72'
21
Isaac Price
Isaac Price Midfielder
9
Josh Maja
Josh Maja Attacker
12
Daryl Dike
Daryl Dike
Attacker72'
19
Aune Heggebø
Aune Heggebø Attacker
Referee : Andrew Madley

Starting XI ▼

1
Arthur Okonkwo
Arthur Okonkwo Goalkeeper
2
Callum Doyle
Callum Doyle Defender
4
Max Cleworth
Max Cleworth Defender
5
Dominic Hyam
Dominic Hyam Defender
12
Issa Kaboré
Issa Kaboré Midfielder
14
George Thomason
George Thomason Midfielder
15
George Dobson
George Dobson Midfielder
26
Zak Vyner
Zak Vyner Midfielder
33
Nathan Broadhead
Nathan Broadhead
Attacker69'
10
Josh Windass
Josh Windass Attacker
20
Ollie Rathbone
Ollie Rathbone
Midfielder82'
27
Lewis O'Brien
Lewis O'Brien Attacker
28
Sam Smith
Sam Smith Attacker
19
Kieffer Moore
Kieffer Moore
Attacker69'

Events

2ND-HALF
82'
Event
Ollie Rathbone → Josh Windass
5th Substitution
Event
George Campbell
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
74'
Event
Daryl Dike  → Josh Maja
3rd Substitution
72'
Event
Charlie Taylor → Jamaldeen Jimoh-Aloba
4th Substitution
72'
69'
Event
Nathan Broadhead → Zak Vyner
1st Substitution
69'
Event
Kieffer Moore → Sam Smith
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
George Dobson
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Callum Styles
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
61'
47'
Event
Josh Windass
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
1ST-HALF
Event
Josh Maja
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
38'
38'
Event
Issa Kaboré
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
Event
George Dobson
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
26'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity for Wrexham. Callum Doyle heads the ball from the center of the box, but it goes over the bar. The assist came from George Dobson, who delivered a cross following a corner.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with the match finishing 2-2 between West Bromwich Albion and Wrexham.
90
Attempt Attempt
Danny Imray's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked.
90
Corner Corner
Wrexham wins a corner after Josh Griffiths concedes.
90
Corner Corner
Kieffer Moore from Wrexham attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it's saved in the left corner by Josh Griffiths of West Bromwich Albion. The assist was provided by George Dobson.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
88
Corner Corner
West Bromwich Albion wins a corner, conceded by Arthur Okonkwo.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to West Bromwich Albion after a concession by Arthur Okonkwo.
83
Update Update
Jayson Molumby of West Bromwich Albion won a free kick in defense.
83
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Lewis O'Brien from Wrexham.
83
Update Update
Jayson Molumby of West Bromwich Albion won a free kick in defense.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wrexham: Oliver Rathbone replaces Josh Windass.
80
Update Update
Kieffer Moore from Wrexham won a free kick on the right wing.
80
Update Update
Foul committed by George Campbell of West Bromwich Albion.
78
Corner Corner
Wrexham wins a corner after Charlie Taylor concedes.
76
Attempt Attempt
Callum Styles' shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Daryl Dike.
75
Update Update
Dominic Hyam fouled a Wrexham player.
75
Update Update
Ousmane Diakité of West Bromwich Albion won a free kick in defense.
74
Update Update
Foul committed by George Campbell of West Bromwich Albion.
74
Update Update
Issa Kaboré from Wrexham won a free kick in an attacking position.
74
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
George Campbell of West Bromwich Albion receives a yellow card for a foul.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for West Bromwich Albion: Charlie Taylor replaces Jamaldeen Jimoh-Aloba.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for West Bromwich Albion: Daryl Dike replaces Josh Maja.
70
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Josh Maja of West Bromwich Albion takes a right-footed shot from over 40 yards on the right wing, but it's saved in the right corner by Arthur Okonkwo of Wrexham.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wrexham: Kieffer Moore replaces Sam Smith.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Wrexham: Nathan Broadhead replaces Zak Vyner.
67
Update Update
Foul committed by Josh Windass for Wrexham.
67
Update Update
Callum Styles from West Bromwich Albion won a free kick in defense.
63
Update Update
Jayson Molumby of West Bromwich Albion won a free kick in an attacking position.
63
Update Update
Foul committed by George Dobson for Wrexham.
62
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! George Dobson scores for Wrexham with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the right corner. The match is now 2-2, assisted by Lewis O'Brien.
62
Attempt Attempt
Sam Smith's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Josh Windass.
61
Update Update
Aune Heggebø from West Bromwich Albion committed a foul.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Callum Styles from West Bromwich Albion receives a yellow card.
61
Update Update
Dominic Hyam of Wrexham won a free kick in defense.
59
Update Update
Offside called against Wrexham. Sam Smith is offside.
58
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Sam Smith from Wrexham heads the ball inside the six-yard box on the left side.
57
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Sam Smith from Wrexham heads the ball from the right side of the six-yard box, but it goes wide. Assist by Zak Vyner.
55
Corner Corner
Dominic Hyam from Wrexham missed a header from close range. The assist came from George Dobson, who delivered a cross after a corner.
54
Corner Corner
Wrexham win a corner after Danny Imray concedes.
53
Update Update
Fouled by Aune Heggebø of West Bromwich Albion.
53
Update Update
Aune Heggebø from West Bromwich Albion committed a foul.
50
Update Update
Jayson Molumby of West Bromwich Albion won a free kick in defense.
50
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Callum Styles of West Bromwich Albion had a right-footed shot from outside the box that was blocked. The assist came from Callum Styles with a header.
50
Update Update
Jayson Molumby of West Bromwich Albion won a free kick in defense.
47
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Wrexham scores to make it 2-1 against West Bromwich Albion. Josh Windass finds the right corner with a right-footed shot from outside the box, assisted by Lewis O'Brien.
46
Update Update
Foul committed by Jayson Molumby of West Bromwich Albion.
46
Update Update
Lewis O'Brien from Wrexham won a free kick on the left wing.
45
Corner Corner
Wrexham win a corner after Nathaniel Phillips concedes.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with West Bromwich Albion leading Wrexham 2-0.
45
Update Update
Aune Heggebø fouled a player from West Bromwich Albion.
45
Corner Corner
Missed chance. George Dobson from Wrexham shoots with his right foot from outside the box, but it goes high after the corner.
45
Update Update
Callum Doyle from Wrexham won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Offside called against Wrexham. Lewis O'Brien is offside.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with West Bromwich Albion leading Wrexham 2-0.
44
Corner Corner
Wrexham wins a corner after Isaac Price concedes.
41
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Jamaldeen Jimoh-Aloba from West Bromwich Albion.
40
Attempt Attempt
Josh Maja's shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Jayson Molumby.
38
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Issa Kaboré from Wrexham receives a yellow card.
38
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Josh Maja scores for West Bromwich Albion with a right-footed shot into the left corner. The score is now West Bromwich Albion 2, Wrexham 0.
37
Update Update
Issa Kaboré of Wrexham concedes a penalty after committing a foul in the penalty area.
37
Update Update
Penalty awarded to West Bromwich Albion as Jayson Molumby is fouled in the penalty area.
36
Corner Corner
West Bromwich Albion wins a corner after Callum Doyle concedes.
35
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. George Thomason from Wrexham shot with his left foot from the center of the box, but it went high and wide to the left.
34
Update Update
Isaac Price of West Bromwich Albion committed a foul.
34
Update Update
Lewis O'Brien from Wrexham won a free kick on the right wing.
33
Corner Corner
Max Cleworth from Wrexham missed a header from close range, sending the ball to the left. The assist came from Lewis O'Brien, who delivered a cross following a corner.
32
Corner Corner
Wrexham wins a corner after Callum Styles concedes.
31
Update Update
Fouled by Aune Heggebø of West Bromwich Albion.
31
Update Update
Callum Doyle from Wrexham was awarded a free kick in defense.
29
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Issa Kaboré from Wrexham shoots with his left foot from outside the box, but it's high and wide to the left. The assist was by Josh Windass.
26
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Own goal by George Dobson gives West Bromwich Albion a 1-0 lead over Wrexham.
25
Update Update
Issa Kaboré commits a foul against Wrexham.
25
Update Update
Callum Styles from West Bromwich Albion won a free kick on the left wing.
24
Update Update
Foul committed by Zak Vyner for Wrexham.
24
Update Update
Ousmane Diakité from West Bromwich Albion has won a free kick in defense.
17
Update Update
Offside called against Wrexham. Josh Windass is offside.
15
Update Update
Foul committed by Isaac Price of West Bromwich Albion.
15
Update Update
Issa Kaboré from Wrexham won a free kick in defense.
13
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Jamaldeen Jimoh-Aloba from West Bromwich Albion shoots with his left foot from the center of the box but it goes high. The assist was provided by George Campbell after a corner.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to West Bromwich Albion after a concession by Sam Smith.
10
Corner Corner
Aune Heggebø from West Bromwich Albion attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it's saved in the left corner by Arthur Okonkwo of Wrexham.
3
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to West Bromwich Albion after a concession by Callum Doyle.
2
Attempt Attempt
George Thomason's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Wrexham exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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