Vitória Guimarães vs Tondela Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques Fri, 3 Apr - 5:00 PM
Liga Portugal
Vitória Guimarães VSC
5 Winner 0
Tondela CDT
Full Time Fri, 3 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
João Mendes - 65' (P)
Gustavo Silva - 55'
Samu - 51' (P)
Miguel Nogueira - 18'
Oumar Camara - 5'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Vitória Guimarães and Tondela has officially finished, with the home side securing a commanding 5-0 full-time victory. Vitória Guimarães took early control of the fixture, establishing a comfortable 2-0 lead by half-time before relentlessly extending their advantage in the second period. Pre-match market expectations accurately predicted the winner, heavily favoring the home side with a 51% implied win probability, compared to Tondela's 22.7% chance and a 26.4% likelihood of a draw. While the outcome ultimately aligned with the pre-match market, the massive five-goal margin represented a significant deviation from those standard expectations. Vitória Guimarães heavily overperformed their standard projections, registering a 49% deviation on the day. Despite the heavily lopsided final scoreline, overall ball possession was surprisingly contested. Vitória Guimarães controlled 52% of the ball against the visitors' 48%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, so it cannot be determined if the outcome aligned perfectly with underlying chance creation. However, the victors' efficiency shift remained strictly in line with baseline expectations. Finally, the match was played without any red cards, meaning this comprehensive victory was achieved strictly

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Vitória Guimarães showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

C. Fernandes Macedo

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

L. Lopes da Costa

1st Assistant

J. Paulo Silva Macedo

2nd Assistant

V. Fernandes Ferreira

4th Official

Vitória Guimarães G. Moreira Lameiras
G. Moreira Lameiras
VS
Tondela G. Feio
G. Feio
1.2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.8
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Benfica Rank: 86 L
Famalicão Rank: 71 L
Santa Clara Rank: 66 L
Alverca Rank: 64 D
Sporting Braga Rank: 81 L
Estrela Amadora Rank: 60 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
AVS Rank: 55 D
Sporting CP Rank: 88 D
Rio Ave Rank: 64 L
Santa Clara Rank: 66 D
Estrela Amadora Rank: 60 W
Alverca Rank: 64 D
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 2 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Vitória Guimarães
50.96%
Draw
26.39%
Away Tondela
22.65%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.42
53.2
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Vitória Guimarães
Tondela
Power Score
71.42
53.2
League Position
8
17
Global Rank
168
460

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Vitória Guimarães — Opponent-weighted form score
Tondela — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Vitória Guimarães Tondela

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Vitória Guimarães

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Tondela

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Vitória Guimarães ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Tondela
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.83
7.29
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
7.29
26.83
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Vitória Guimarães +1.92 Efficiency Index
vs
Tondela -1.92 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Vitória Guimarães
Tondela
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Vitória Guimarães ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Tondela
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Vitória Guimarães Tondela
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
2.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Vitória Guimarães Tondela
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 2.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Vitória Guimarães
Tondela
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Vitória Guimarães
vs
Tondela
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Vitória Guimarães Tondela
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Vitória Guimarães 0.31
Tondela 0.30
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Vitória Guimarães Tondela
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Vitória Guimarães 0.00
Tondela 0.13
Vitória Guimarães
Tondela
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 15 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Vitória Guimarães VSC Home
15 matches
Tondela CDT Away
Match Record
9
Wins
4
2
Draws
2
4
Losses
9
Goals
25
Goals Scored
13
13
Goals Conceded
25
+12
Goal Difference
-12

Data last updated: 2026-04-04T00:03:03+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
C. da Silva
Brazil
27 C. da Silva
T. Strata
Substitution
Romania
66 T. Strata
O. Rivas Viondi
Spain
4 O. Rivas Viondi
T. Balieiro Lourenço de Carvalho
Brazil
28 T. Balieiro Lourenço de Carvalho
João Mendes
Substitution
Portugal
13 João Mendes
B. Mambuene Mukendi
Angola
16 B. Mambuene Mukendi
G. Teixeira Nogueira
Portugal
30 G. Teixeira Nogueira
J. Costa Nogueira
Substitution
Portugal
88 J. Costa Nogueira
F. Amorim Silva
Substitution
Portugal
20 F. Amorim Silva
O. Camara
France
19 O. Camara
G. da Silva Cunha
Substitution
Brazil
11 G. da Silva Cunha
Pitch
B. Parise Fontes
Brazil
31 B. Parise Fontes
E. Maviram
Substitution
Nigeria
60 E. Maviram
B. Medina
Colombia
20 B. Medina
C. Marques
Portugal
4 C. Marques
R. Machado
Brazil
2 R. Machado
J. Hodge
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
10 J. Hodge
J. Rodríguez López
Ecuador
32 J. Rodríguez López
P. Pereira dos Santos
Substitution
Brazil
7 P. Pereira dos Santos
M. Mesquita Lopes
Substitution
Portugal
16 M. Mesquita Lopes
A. van der Heide
Substitution
Netherlands
26 A. van der Heide
T. Siebatcheu
France
29 T. Siebatcheu

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 03, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques
Capacity :
30008
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ , Clear
Referees :
Luís Carlos Lopes da Costa
João Paulo Silva Macedo
Vitor Jorge Fernandes Ferreira
Carlos André Fernandes Macedo

Statistics

Possession
VSC
53%
CDT
47%

Top Statistics

5 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 0
9 Shots 1
39 Dangerous attacks 10
52 Possession 48
3 Corners 1
15 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

1 Hit Woodwork 0
73 Ball Safe 67
8 Goal Attempts 3
2 Injuries 0
2 Penalties 0
5 Successful Dribbles 5
42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
12 Dribble Attempts 10
18 Throwins 18
11 Successful Headers 18
4 Goal Kicks 5
2 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

4 Counter Attacks 2
87 Attacks 77
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

390 Passes 369
9 Key Passes 2
84 Successful Passes Percentage 82
327 Successful Passes 301
44 Long Passes 36
18 Successful Long Passes 17
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47

Defensive

1 Saves 1
50 Duels Won 49
18 Tackles 12
8 Interceptions 8

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 8
4 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

14 Fouls 17
1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Carlos André Fernandes Macedo

Starting XI ▼

27
Charles
Charles Goalkeeper
4
Óscar Rivas
Óscar Rivas Defender
13
João Mendes
João Mendes Defender
17
Orest Lebedenko
Orest Lebedenko
Defender81'
28
Thiago Balieiro
Thiago Balieiro Defender
66
Tony Strata
Tony Strata Defender
2
Maga
Maga
Defender75'
16
Beni Mukendi
Beni Mukendi Midfielder
19
Oumar Camara
Oumar Camara Midfielder
20
Samu
Samu Midfielder
23
Diogo Sousa
Diogo Sousa
Midfielder67'
30
Gonçalo Nogueira
Gonçalo Nogueira Midfielder
88
Miguel Nogueira
Miguel Nogueira Midfielder
48
Noah Jose Saviolo
Noah Jose Saviolo
Attacker67'
11
Gustavo Silva
Gustavo Silva Attacker
18
Telmo Arcanjo
Telmo Arcanjo
Midfielder75'
Referee : Carlos André Fernandes Macedo

Starting XI ▼

31
Bernardo
Bernardo Goalkeeper
2
Bebeto
Bebeto Defender
4
Christian Marques
Christian Marques Defender
20
Brayan Medina
Brayan Medina Defender
60
Nor Maviram
Nor Maviram Defender
27
Rodrigo Conceição
Rodrigo Conceição
Defender56'
7
Maranhão
Maranhão Midfielder
90
Makan Aïko
Makan Aïko
Attacker56'
10
Joe Hodge
Joe Hodge Midfielder
8
Hélder Tavares
Hélder Tavares
Midfielder80'
16
Rony Lopes
Rony Lopes Midfielder
79
Hugo Félix
Hugo Félix
Midfielder68'
26
Arjen van der Heide
Arjen van der Heide Midfielder
70
Moudjatovic
Moudjatovic
Attacker56'
32
Juanse
Juanse Midfielder
29
Jordan
Jordan Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Diogo Sousa
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
87'
Event
Orest Lebedenko → João Mendes
10th Substitution
81'
80'
Event
Hélder Tavares → Joe Hodge
9th Substitution
Event
Maga → Tony Strata
8th Substitution
75'
Event
Telmo Arcanjo → Gustavo Silva
7th Substitution
75'
68'
Event
Hugo Félix → Rony Lopes
6th Substitution
Event
Diogo Sousa → Samu
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Noah Jose Saviolo → Miguel Nogueira
4th Substitution
67'
Event
João Mendes
Left foot shot / 2nd Penalty
65'
Event
Gustavo Silva
Penalty awarded
63'
56'
Event
Makan Aïko → Maranhão
1st Substitution
56'
Event
Rodrigo Conceição → Nor Maviram
2nd Substitution
56'
Event
Moudjatovic → Arjen van der Heide
3rd Substitution
Event
Gustavo Silva
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
55'
Event
Samu
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
51'
Event
Samu
Penalty awarded
49'
47'
Event
Brayan Medina
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Miguel Nogueira
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
18'
Event
Oumar Camara
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
5'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Foul committed by Hugo Félix of Tondela.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Vitoria Guimaraes after Brayan Medina concedes.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Vitoria Guimaraes winning 5-0 against Tondela.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Hugo Félix of Tondela.
90
Update Update
Beni from Vitoria Guimaraes wins a free kick in the defensive half.
88
Update Update
Foul committed by Diogo Sousa of Vitoria Guimaraes.
88
Update Update
Moudjatovic Ouattara from Tondela wins a free kick in the defensive half.
88
Update Update
Foul by Hélder Tavares of Tondela.
88
Update Update
Telmo Arcanjo from Vitoria Guimaraes wins a free kick in the attacking half.
87
Update Update
Juanse from Tondela wins a free kick in the defensive half.
87
Update Update
Foul committed by Diogo Sousa of Vitoria Guimaraes.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Diogo Sousa from Vitoria Guimaraes receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
86
Update Update
Bebeto from Tondela wins a free kick in the defensive half.
86
Update Update
Foul committed by Noah Saviolo of Vitoria Guimaraes.
85
Update Update
Christian Marques of Tondela is caught offside.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Tondela after Óscar Rivas concedes.
83
Update Update
Offside for Tondela. Makan Aiko is caught in an offside position.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Vitoria Guimaraes after Rodrigo Conceição concedes.
81
Update Update
Foul committed by Jordan Siebatcheu of Tondela.
81
Update Update
Óscar Rivas from Vitoria Guimaraes wins a free kick in the defensive half.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Vitoria Guimaraes: Orest Lebedenko comes on for João Mendes.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Tondela: Hélder Tavares comes on for Joe Hodge.
80
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Diogo Sousa from Vitoria Guimaraes takes a left-footed shot from outside the box.
78
Update Update
Hugo Félix from Tondela wins a free kick in the defensive half.
78
Update Update
Foul by Óscar Rivas of Vitoria Guimaraes.
76
Update Update
Noah Saviolo from Vitoria Guimaraes misses a header from the center of the box.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Vitoria Guimaraes: Telmo Arcanjo comes on for Gustavo Silva.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Vitoria Guimaraes: Miguel Maga comes on for Tony Strata.
74
Update Update
Oumar Camara from Vitoria Guimaraes wins a free kick on the right wing.
74
Update Update
Foul committed by Rodrigo Conceição of Tondela.
71
Update Update
Charles from Vitoria Guimaraes wins a free kick in the defensive half.
71
Update Update
Foul committed by Christian Marques of Tondela.
70
Update Update
Foul by Óscar Rivas of Vitoria Guimaraes.
70
Update Update
Makan Aiko from Tondela wins a free kick on the left wing.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Tondela: Hugo Félix comes on for Rony Lopes.
68
Update Update
Foul by João Mendes of Vitoria Guimaraes.
68
Update Update
Moudjatovic Ouattara from Tondela wins a free kick on the right wing.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Vitoria Guimaraes: Diogo Sousa comes on for Samu.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Vitoria Guimaraes: Noah Saviolo comes on for Miguel Nogueira.
65
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! João Mendes scores for Vitoria Guimaraes with a left-footed shot into the bottom left corner. The match ends 5-0.
63
Update Update
Gustavo Silva is fouled in the penalty area, resulting in a penalty for Vitoria Guimaraes.
63
Update Update
Brayan Medina from Tondela concedes a penalty after committing a foul in the penalty area.
60
Update Update
Gustavo Silva of Vitoria Guimaraes is caught offside.
59
Update Update
Foul committed by Juanse of Tondela.
59
Update Update
Gonçalo Nogueira from Vitoria Guimaraes wins a free kick in the defensive half.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Tondela: Makan Aiko comes on for Pedro Maranhão.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Tondela: Rodrigo Conceição comes on for Emmanuel Maviram.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Tondela: Moudjatovic Ouattara comes on for Arjen van der Heide.
55
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Gustavo Silva scores for Vitoria Guimaraes with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom left corner. The match score is now 4-0.
51
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Samu scores for Vitoria Guimaraes with a left-footed shot into the bottom left corner. The match remains 3-0.
49
Update Update
VAR decision results in a penalty for Vitoria Guimaraes.
48
Corner Corner
Vitoria Guimaraes wins a corner after Brayan Medina concedes.
47
Update Update
Foul by Brayan Medina of Tondela.
47
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Brayan Medina from Tondela receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
47
Update Update
Gustavo Silva from Vitoria Guimaraes wins a free kick on the right wing.
46
Update Update
Pedro Maranhão from Tondela wins a free kick on the left wing.
46
Update Update
Foul committed by Tony Strata of Vitoria Guimaraes.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Juanse of Tondela.
45
Update Update
João Mendes from Vitoria Guimaraes wins a free kick in the attacking half.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
45
Attempt Attempt
João Mendes' left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Miguel Nogueira.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Jordan Siebatcheu of Tondela.
45
Update Update
Óscar Rivas from Vitoria Guimaraes wins a free kick on the left wing.
45
Update Update
First half ends with Vitoria Guimaraes leading Tondela 2-0.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Vitoria Guimaraes 2, Tondela 0.
43
Update Update
Foul committed by Thiago Balieiro of Vitoria Guimaraes.
43
Update Update
Rony Lopes from Tondela wins a free kick in the defensive half.
42
Update Update
Thiago Balieiro from Vitoria Guimaraes misses a header from the center of the box, sending it close but to the right. The attempt was assisted by Samu, who delivered a cross after a set piece situation.
41
Update Update
Oumar Camara from Vitoria Guimaraes wins a free kick in the attacking half.
40
Update Update
Foul committed by Joe Hodge of Tondela.
38
Update Update
Beni from Vitoria Guimaraes wins a free kick in the attacking half.
38
Update Update
Foul committed by Rony Lopes of Tondela.
37
Update Update
Foul committed by Jordan Siebatcheu of Tondela.
37
Update Update
Arjen van der Heide from Tondela misses a header from the center of the box, sending it to the left. Emmanuel Maviram provided the assist with a cross.
37
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Charles from Vitoria Guimaraes.
34
Corner Corner
Emmanuel Maviram's left-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the bottom left corner by Charles.
31
Update Update
Arjen van der Heide of Tondela is caught offside.
29
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Miguel Nogueira of Vitoria Guimaraes.
26
Update Update
Pedro Maranhão from Tondela wins a free kick in the defensive half.
26
Update Update
Foul committed by Tony Strata of Vitoria Guimaraes.
24
Update Update
Foul committed by Miguel Nogueira of Vitoria Guimaraes.
24
Update Update
Bernardo Fontes from Tondela wins a free kick in the defensive half.
24
Attempt Attempt
Gustavo Silva from Vitoria Guimaraes hits the bar with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, assisted by Oumar Camara.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Vitoria Guimaraes after a concession by Emmanuel Maviram.
21
Corner Corner
Gonçalo Nogueira of Vitoria Guimaraes misses a header from the left side of the six-yard box, just missing the top left corner. The attempt was assisted by Samu, who delivered a cross after a corner.
18
Attempt Attempt
João Mendes from Vitoria Guimaraes has a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Óscar Rivas.
18
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Vitoria Guimaraes lead 2-0 against Tondela. Miguel Nogueira scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom right corner, assisted by Oumar Camara.
17
Update Update
Foul committed by Pedro Maranhão of Tondela.
17
Update Update
Tony Strata from Vitoria Guimaraes wins a free kick in the defensive half.
16
Update Update
Brayan Medina from Tondela wins a free kick in the defensive half.
16
Update Update
Foul by Gustavo Silva of Vitoria Guimaraes.
12
Update Update
Foul committed by Samu of Vitoria Guimaraes.
12
Attempt Attempt
Arjen van der Heide from Tondela misses the attempt with a left-footed shot from outside the box that goes too high. Jordan Siebatcheu provided the assist.
12
Update Update
Bebeto from Tondela wins a free kick on the right wing.
11
Update Update
Foul committed by Juanse of Tondela.
11
Update Update
Gonçalo Nogueira from Vitoria Guimaraes wins a free kick in the defensive half.
9
Update Update
Offside called against Vitoria Guimaraes. Miguel Nogueira is the player caught offside.
8
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Joe Hodge from Tondela takes a right-footed shot from outside the box.
7
Update Update
Bebeto from Tondela wins a free kick in the attacking half.
7
Update Update
Foul committed by Oumar Camara of Vitoria Guimaraes.
5
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Vitoria Guimaraes leads Tondela 1-0. Oumar Camara scores with a right-footed shot from outside the box into the bottom right corner, assisted by Gonçalo Nogueira.
2
Update Update
Foul committed by Brayan Medina of Tondela.
2
Update Update
Gonçalo Nogueira from Vitoria Guimaraes wins a free kick in the defensive half.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Vitória Guimarães exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.