Antwerp vs Genk Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Bosuilstadion Fri, 3 Apr - 6:45 PM
Pro League
Antwerp ANT
1 Winner 2
Genk GNK
Full Time Fri, 3 Apr 6:45 PM
Round 1 Conference League Play-off Group
Christopher Scott - 86'
Goal
|
Goal
Daan Heymans - 45+2', 51' (P)

CONTEXT

The match between Antwerp and Genk has finished, resulting in a 2-1 away victory for Genk. The visitors established a 1-0 lead by halftime and ultimately secured the full-time win. This outcome aligned precisely with the pre-match market, which gave Genk a 40.4% probability of winning, compared to Antwerp's 31.8% chance and a 27.9% probability of a draw. While the market accurately predicted Genk as the stronger team, the match still featured a significant deviation level of 59.6% favoring the away side. Antwerp controlled the overall flow of play with 56% possession against Genk's 44%, but the hosts failed to successfully capitalize on their extended time on the ball. Expected goals (xG) data was not available for this fixture, meaning it cannot be determined if the final scoreline aligned directly with the underlying chance quality. Nevertheless, the efficiency shift for the match was entirely in line with expectations. Furthermore, the contest was free of major disciplinary disruptions; no red cards were shown to either team, allowing the match to be settled fairly with both sides at full numerical strength for all ninety minutes.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Genk showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
R. Devillers
R. Devillers
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.18
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.73
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
N. Claes
N. Claes
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.18
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.73
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
K. Clerkx
K. Clerkx
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.18
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.73
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
L. D'hondt
L. D'hondt
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.18
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.73
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.12
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
Antwerp J. Oosting
J. Oosting
VS
Genk N. Hayen
N. Hayen
1.19
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.48
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
OH Leuven Rank: 66 L
Standard Liège Rank: 68 D
La Louvière Rank: 68 D
Sint-Truiden Rank: 77 W
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 85 L
Westerlo Rank: 70 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
La Louvière Rank: 67 D
Sint-Truiden Rank: 77 W
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 85 L
Gent Rank: 73 W
Standard Liège Rank: 69 L
Mechelen Rank: 71 W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 8 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Antwerp
31.77%
Draw
27.87%
Away Genk
40.36%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.64
77.51
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Antwerp
Genk
Power Score
69.64
77.51
League Position
10
7
Global Rank
203
76

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Antwerp — Opponent-weighted form score
Genk — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Antwerp Genk

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Antwerp

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Genk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Antwerp ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Genk
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.86
30.34
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.34
27.86
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Antwerp -0.22 Efficiency Index
vs
Genk +0.22 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Antwerp
Genk
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Antwerp ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Genk
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Antwerp Genk
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Antwerp Genk
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Antwerp
Genk
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Antwerp
vs
Genk
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Antwerp Genk
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Antwerp 0.25
Genk 0.44
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Antwerp Genk
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Antwerp 0.07
Genk 0.02
Antwerp
Genk
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 28 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Antwerp ANT Home
28 matches
Genk GNK Away
Match Record
8
Wins
12
8
Draws
8
12
Losses
8
Goals
38
Goals Scored
55
55
Goals Conceded
38
-17
Goal Difference
+17
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-04T00:03:46+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
T. Nozawa
Japan
41 T. Nozawa
Y. Tsunashima
Japan
4 Y. Tsunashima
M. Benítez
Argentina
16 M. Benítez
G. Bijl
Substitution
Netherlands
23 G. Bijl
T. Somers
Substitution
Belgium
24 T. Somers
A. Valencia
Ecuador
14 A. Valencia
D. Praet
Substitution
Belgium
8 D. Praet
C. Scott
Germany
30 C. Scott
D. Foulon
Belgium
5 D. Foulon
G. Vandeplas
Substitution
Belgium
79 G. Vandeplas
V. Janssen
Netherlands
18 V. Janssen
L. Kiaba Mounganga
Belgium
28 L. Kiaba Mounganga
M. Smets
Belgium
6 M. Smets
M. Sadick Aliu
Spain
3 M. Sadick Aliu
J. Ndenge Kongolo
Belgium
44 J. Ndenge Kongolo
Y. Medina Ortiz
Substitution
Ecuador
19 Y. Medina Ortiz
I. Bangoura
Substitution
Guinea
21 I. Bangoura
B. Heynen
Belgium
8 B. Heynen
Z. El Ouahdi
Morocco
77 Z. El Ouahdi
D. Heymans
Substitution
Belgium
38 D. Heymans
K. Karetsas
Substitution
Belgium
20 K. Karetsas
R. Mirisola
Substitution
Belgium
29 R. Mirisola

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 03, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 1 · Conference League Play-off Group
Stadium
Bosuilstadion
Capacity
16649
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Romain Devillers
Nico Claes
K. Clerkx
Lothar D'hondt

Statistics

Possession
ANT
55%
GNK
45%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 3
2 Shots 5
52 Dangerous attacks 27
56 Possession 44
3 Corners 0
15 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

28 Throwins 22
27 Dribble Attempts 21
12 Goal Kicks 6
1 Hit Woodwork 0
0 Assists 1
92 Ball Safe 83
4 Substitutions 5
2 Injuries 1
6 Goal Attempts 11
0 Penalties 1
13 Successful Dribbles 10
48 Successful Dribbles Percentage 48

Attacking

121 Attacks 116
2 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

53 Long Passes 52
82 Successful Passes Percentage 77
471 Passes 372
386 Successful Passes 286
8 Key Passes 10
58 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35
31 Successful Long Passes 18

Defensive

20 Tackles 24
2 Saves 1
13 Interceptions 7

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 10
5 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

12 Fouls 15
6 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Lothar D'hondt

Starting XI ▼

41
Taishi Brandon Nozawa
Taishi Brandon Nozawa Goalkeeper
4
Yuto Tsunashima
Yuto Tsunashima Defender
16
Mauricio Benitez
Mauricio Benitez Defender
23
G. Bijl
G. Bijl Defender
9
Marwan Alsahafi
Marwan Alsahafi
Attacker70'
5
Daam Foulon
Daam Foulon Midfielder
8
Dennis Praet
Dennis Praet Midfielder
25
Kiki Kouyaté
Kiki Kouyaté
Defender90+1'
14
Anthony Valencia
Anthony Valencia Midfielder
24
Thibo Somers
Thibo Somers Midfielder
43
Youssef Hamdaoui
Youssef Hamdaoui
Midfielder69'
30
Christopher Scott
Christopher Scott Midfielder
18
Vincent Janssen
Vincent Janssen Attacker
79
Gerard Vandeplas
Gerard Vandeplas Attacker
22
Farouck Adekami
Farouck Adekami
Midfielder46'
Referee : Lothar D'hondt

Starting XI ▼

28
Lucca Brughmans
Lucca Brughmans Goalkeeper
3
Mujaid Sadick
Mujaid Sadick Defender
6
Matte Smets
Matte Smets Defender
44
Josué Kongolo
Josué Kongolo Defender
8
Bryan Heynen
Bryan Heynen Midfielder
19
Yaimar Medina
Yaimar Medina Midfielder
10
Junya Ito
Junya Ito
Attacker59'
21
Ibrahima Bangoura
Ibrahima Bangoura Midfielder
24
Nikolas Sattlberger
Nikolas Sattlberger
Midfielder84'
77
Zakaria El Ouahdi
Zakaria El Ouahdi Midfielder
20
Konstantinos Karetsas
Konstantinos Karetsas Attacker
27
Ken Nkuba
Ken Nkuba
Defender84'
29
Robin Mirisola
Robin Mirisola Attacker
23
Aaron Bibout
Aaron Bibout
Attacker71'
38
Daan Heymans
Daan Heymans Attacker
2
14
Yira Sor
Yira Sor
Attacker85'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Vincent Janssen
Penalty cancelled
90+6'
Event
Anthony Valencia
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Kiki Kouyaté → Dennis Praet
9th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Youssef Hamdaoui
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
90'
Event
Christopher Scott
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
86'
85'
Event
Yira Sor → Daan Heymans
8th Substitution
84'
Event
Ken Nkuba → Konstantinos Karetsas
6th Substitution
84'
Event
Nikolas Sattlberger → Ibrahima Bangoura
7th Substitution
71'
Event
Aaron Bibout → Robin Mirisola
5th Substitution
Event
Marwan Alsahafi → G. Bijl
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Youssef Hamdaoui → Thibo Somers
3rd Substitution
69'
66'
Event
Matte Smets
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
59'
Event
Junya Ito → Yaimar Medina
2nd Substitution
51'
Event
Daan Heymans
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Farouck Adekami → Gerard Vandeplas
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Daan Heymans
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
20'
Event
Ibrahima Bangoura
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Genk exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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