Real Sociedad II vs SD Eibar Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Anoeta Stadium Thu, 2 Apr - 6:00 PM
La Liga 2
Real Sociedad II Real Sociedad II
0 Winner 1
SD Eibar EIB
Full Time Thu, 2 Apr 6:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
|
Goal
Anaitz Arbilla - 4'

CONTEXT

The match between Real Sociedad II and SD Eibar has finished, ending in a full-time score of 0-0. Interestingly, the match data shows SD Eibar holding a 1-0 lead at half-time, though the final whistle confirmed a scoreless draw. Ahead of the fixture, SD Eibar entered as the stronger team with a 42.7% implied probability of victory. Real Sociedad II held a 28.3% chance, while a draw was priced at 29%. On the pitch, Real Sociedad II controlled a slight majority of the possession at 52%, leaving SD Eibar with 48%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, so it cannot be determined if the final outcome aligned with the overall chance creation. Despite this, the offensive efficiency shift for both sides was completely in line with standard expectations. Because the favored visitors failed to secure the win, the final draw was not aligned with the pre-match market. This resulted in a significant deviation level of 71% that primarily frustrated SD Eibar. Finally, the match flowed without major disciplinary interference, as zero red cards were issued to either side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: SD Eibar showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Sánchez Villalobos
J. Sánchez Villalobos
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
R. Tejero García
R. Tejero García
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
?. Munuera Montero
?. Munuera Montero
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
M. Bárcenas Torres
M. Bárcenas Torres
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
Real Sociedad II J. Ansotegi Gorostola
J. Ansotegi Gorostola
VS
SD Eibar B. San José Gil
B. San José Gil
1.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.36
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Almería Rank: 70 L
Granada Rank: 66 L
Córdoba Rank: 63 W
Castellón Rank: 66 W
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 68 L
Cádiz Rank: 59 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Leganés Rank: 66 W
Cádiz Rank: 59 W
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 68 L
Racing Santander Rank: 70 W
Real Zaragoza Rank: 61 D
Sporting Gijón Rank: 64 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Real Sociedad II
28.29%
Draw
28.97%
Away SD Eibar
42.74%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.55
68.57
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Real Sociedad II
SD Eibar
Power Score
56.55
68.57
League Position
15
8
Global Rank
437
215

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Real Sociedad II — Opponent-weighted form score
SD Eibar — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Real Sociedad II SD Eibar

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Real Sociedad II

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

SD Eibar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Real Sociedad II ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy SD Eibar
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.12
26.15
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.15
27.12
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Real Sociedad II +0.10 Efficiency Index
vs
SD Eibar -0.10 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Real Sociedad II
SD Eibar
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Real Sociedad II ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy SD Eibar
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Real Sociedad II SD Eibar
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Real Sociedad II SD Eibar
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Real Sociedad II
SD Eibar
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Real Sociedad II Real Sociedad II Home
3 matches
SD Eibar EIB Away
Match Record
0
Wins
3
0
Draws
0
3
Losses
0
Goals
5
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
5
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-03T00:00:55+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
E. Arana Aizpurua
Spain
13 E. Arana Aizpurua
J. Garro
Substitution
Spain
29 J. Garro
U. Ayo Larrañaga
Substitution
Spain
39 U. Ayo Larrañaga
K. Kita
Japan
15 K. Kita
J. Balda Zubiri
Spain
3 J. Balda Zubiri
T. Carbonell Del Rio
14 T. Carbonell Del Rio
M. Rodriguez Carrasco
Substitution
Spain
8 M. Rodriguez Carrasco
D. Díaz Gándara
Substitution
Spain
7 D. Díaz Gándara
G. Gorosabel Añorga
Substitution
Spain
16 G. Gorosabel Añorga
G. Carrera Zarranz
Spain
18 G. Carrera Zarranz
A. Mariezkurrena Etxezarreta
Spain
10 A. Mariezkurrena Etxezarreta
J. Magunagoitia Blasco
Spain
13 J. Magunagoitia Blasco
H. Arrillaga Elezgarai
Spain
3 H. Arrillaga Elezgarai
A. Arbilla Zabala
Spain
23 A. Arbilla Zabala
P. Nolaskoain Esnal
Spain
8 P. Nolaskoain Esnal
S. Cubero Ezcurra
Spain
2 S. Cubero Ezcurra
A. Garrido Cañizares
Substitution
Spain
30 A. Garrido Cañizares
S. Álvarez Díaz
Spain
6 S. Álvarez Díaz
J. Guruzeta
Substitution
Spain
10 J. Guruzeta
J. Martínez Calvo
Substitution
Spain
5 J. Martínez Calvo
J. Corpas Serna
Substitution
Spain
17 J. Corpas Serna
M. Ares Djalo
Substitution
Spain
18 M. Ares Djalo

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 02, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Anoeta Stadium
Capacity
40000
Attendance
6361
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
José Antonio Sánchez Villalobos
Roberto Tejero García
Ángel Munuera Montero
Millan Bárcenas Torres

Statistics

Possession
Real Sociedad II
52%
EIB
48%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 0
2 Shots 4
42 Dangerous attacks 31
52 Possession 48
10 Corners 3
14 Free kicks 6
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
65 Ball Safe 79
10 Goal Attempts 7
0 Assists 1
7 Successful Dribbles 13
19 Dribble Attempts 29
37 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
18 Throwins 16
6 Goal Kicks 13
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0
128 Attacks 78

Possession

83 Successful Passes Percentage 82
8 Key Passes 8
25 Successful Long Passes 20
417 Successful Passes 396
501 Passes 484
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 29
61 Long Passes 69

Defensive

60 Duels Won 56
4 Saves 2
4 Interceptions 10
22 Tackles 20

Build-up

36 Total Crosses 6
2 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
6 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : José Antonio Sánchez Villalobos

Starting XI ▼

13
Egoitz Arana
Egoitz Arana Goalkeeper
3
Jon Balda
Jon Balda Defender
15
Kazunari Kita
Kazunari Kita Defender
29
Jon Garro
Jon Garro Defender
22
Alberto Dadie
Alberto Dadie
Attacker81'
39
Unax Larrañaga
Unax Larrañaga Defender
23
Unax Agote
Unax Agote
Defender68'
7
Dani Díaz
Dani Díaz Midfielder
17
Lander Astiazaran
Lander Astiazaran
Midfielder67'
8
Mikel Rodriguez
Mikel Rodriguez Midfielder
21
Joni Eceiza
Joni Eceiza
Midfielder80'
14
Tomy Carbonell
Tomy Carbonell Midfielder
16
Gorka Gorosabel
Gorka Gorosabel Midfielder
19
Alex Marchal
Alex Marchal
Attacker68'
18
Gorka Carrera
Gorka Carrera Midfielder
10
Arkaitz Mariezkurrena
Arkaitz Mariezkurrena Attacker
Referee : José Antonio Sánchez Villalobos

Starting XI ▼

13
Jonmi Magunagoitia
Jonmi Magunagoitia Goalkeeper
2
Sergio Cubero
Sergio Cubero Defender
3
Hodei Arrillaga
Hodei Arrillaga Defender
8
Peru Nolaskoain
Peru Nolaskoain Defender
23
Anaitz Arbilla
Anaitz Arbilla Defender
5
Javi Martínez
Javi Martínez Midfielder
15
Jair Amador
Jair Amador
Defender81'
6
Sergio Álvarez
Sergio Álvarez Midfielder
10
Jon Guruzeta
Jon Guruzeta Midfielder
16
Ander Madariaga
Ander Madariaga
Midfielder71'
17
José Corpas
José Corpas Midfielder
22
Álvaro Rodríguez
Álvaro Rodríguez
Defender87'
30
Aleix Garrido
Aleix Garrido Midfielder
20
Javi Martón
Javi Martón
Attacker71'
18
Adu Ares
Adu Ares Attacker
24
Juan Bernat
Juan Bernat
Defender87'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Tomy Carbonell
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
90+4'
90+4'
Event
Anaitz Arbilla
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
87'
Event
Juan Bernat → Adu Ares
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Álvaro Rodríguez → José Corpas
10th Substitution
Event
Alberto Dadie → Jon Garro
8th Substitution
81'
81'
Event
Jair Amador → Javi Martínez
7th Substitution
Event
Joni Eceiza → Mikel Rodriguez
6th Substitution
80'
71'
Event
Ander Madariaga → Jon Guruzeta
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Javi Martón → Aleix Garrido
5th Substitution
Event
Alex Marchal → Gorka Gorosabel
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Unax Agote → Unax Larrañaga
2nd Substitution
68'
Event
Lander Astiazaran → Dani Díaz
1st Substitution
67'
Event
Dani Díaz
OffTarget
62'
60'
Event
Aleix Garrido
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
4'
Event
Anaitz Arbilla
Header / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: SD Eibar exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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