Leganés vs Real Zaragoza Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Municipal de Butarque Thu, 2 Apr - 7:30 PM
La Liga 2
Leganés LEG
1 – 1
Real Zaragoza ZAR
Full Time Thu, 2 Apr 7:30 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Óscar Plano - 19'
Goal
|
Goal
Sebas Moyano - 35'

CONTEXT

The match between Leganés and Real Zaragoza has finished in a 1-1 draw. The game was evenly balanced early on, with both teams finding the back of the net in the first half to go into the break tied at 1-1. This final result represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, favoring Real Zaragoza. Leganés entered the match as favorites with a 46.3% implied win probability, while a draw was valued at 29.3% and an away victory at just 24.4%. Because the hosts failed to secure the victory, the outcome was definitively not aligned with the pre-match market. In terms of match control, Leganés held a slight advantage with 54% possession compared to Real Zaragoza's 46%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, meaning it cannot be determined if the 1-1 scoreline was consistent with the underlying chances created. Nevertheless, overall efficiency shifts were perfectly in line with expectations for the contest. The match concluded without any red cards, ensuring both sides finished the physical battle without any major disciplinary events impacting the final outcome.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Real Zaragoza showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
C. Martínez Caballero
C. Martínez Caballero
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
I. Hernández Ramos
I. Hernández Ramos
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
J. Martínez Montalbán
J. Martínez Montalbán
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
A. Fuentes Molina
A. Fuentes Molina
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.3
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
Leganés I. Oca Pulido
I. Oca Pulido
VS
Real Zaragoza D. Navarro Arenaz
D. Navarro Arenaz
1.17
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.04
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Valladolid Rank: 60 L
SD Eibar Rank: 69 L
Sporting Gijón Rank: 64 D
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 57 D
Córdoba Rank: 60 L
Granada Rank: 66 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Almería Rank: 70 W
Cádiz Rank: 59 W
Burgos Rank: 67 L
FC Andorra Rank: 62 L
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 57 D
SD Eibar Rank: 69 D
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 3 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Leganés
46.27%
Draw
29.32%
Away Real Zaragoza
24.41%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
59.97
60.57
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Leganés
Real Zaragoza
Power Score
59.97
60.57
League Position
16
19
Global Rank
287
451

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Leganés — Opponent-weighted form score
Real Zaragoza — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Leganés Real Zaragoza

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Leganés

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Real Zaragoza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Leganés ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Zaragoza
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
19.35
53.37
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
53.37
19.35
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Leganés -3.43 Efficiency Index
vs
Real Zaragoza +3.43 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Leganés
Real Zaragoza
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Leganés ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Zaragoza
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Leganés Real Zaragoza
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Leganés Real Zaragoza
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Leganés
Real Zaragoza
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Leganés LEG Home
13 matches
Real Zaragoza ZAR Away
Match Record
5
Wins
5
3
Draws
3
5
Losses
5
Goals
18
Goals Scored
16
16
Goals Conceded
18
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-03T00:01:00+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Soriano Oropesa
Spain
1 J. Soriano Oropesa
M. Leiva Calvo
36 M. Leiva Calvo
I. Miquel i Pons
Spain
5 I. Miquel i Pons
M. Antolín Garzón
Spain
2 M. Antolín Garzón
E. Franquesa Dolz
Spain
15 E. Franquesa Dolz
C. Guirao Mora
Substitution
Spain
26 C. Guirao Mora
A. Diawara
Guinea
24 A. Diawara
L. Lopes
Cape Verde
11 L. Lopes
Ó. Plano Pedreño
Substitution
Spain
20 Ó. Plano Pedreño
J. Díaz Espósito
Substitution
Spain
10 J. Díaz Espósito
A. Millán Iranzo
Substitution
Spain
23 A. Millán Iranzo
E. Andrada
Argentina
1 E. Andrada
J. Larios López
Spain
27 J. Larios López
A. Radovanović
Serbia
16 A. Radovanović
J. El Yamiq
Morocco
18 J. El Yamiq
J. Serrano
Substitution
Spain
2 J. Serrano
K. Bare
Substitution
Albania
6 K. Bare
Y. Saidu
33 Y. Saidu
F. Moyano Jiménez
Substitution
Spain
17 F. Moyano Jiménez
R. González Bayón
Spain
11 R. González Bayón
M. Cuenca Aranda
Substitution
Spain
23 M. Cuenca Aranda
D. Gómez Alcón
Substitution
Spain
9 D. Gómez Alcón

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 02, 2026, 07:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Municipal de Butarque
Capacity
12454
Attendance
8637
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Carlos Martínez Caballero
Iván Hernández Ramos
José David Martínez Montalbán
Andrés Fuentes Molina

Statistics

Possession
LEG
51%
ZAR
49%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 2
7 Shots 14
49 Dangerous attacks 51
54 Possession 46
3 Corners 10
9 Free kicks 16
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

21 Throwins 22
15 Dribble Attempts 22
20 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
11 Goal Kicks 5
82 Ball Safe 81
6 Goal Attempts 15
3 Successful Dribbles 8
0 Assists 1
4 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

102 Attacks 85
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

312 Successful Passes 263
24 Successful Long Passes 24
7 Key Passes 14
81 Successful Passes Percentage 80
52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45
46 Long Passes 53
383 Passes 330

Defensive

6 Saves 3
9 Interceptions 5
23 Tackles 23
54 Duels Won 67

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 6
23 Total Crosses 23

Discipline

16 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Andrés Fuentes Molina

Starting XI ▼

1
Juan Soriano
Juan Soriano Goalkeeper
2
Marvelous Antolín Garzón
Marvelous Antolín Garzón Defender
5
Ignasi Miquel
Ignasi Miquel Defender
15
Enric Franquesa
Enric Franquesa Defender
36
Marcos Leiva Calvo
Marcos Leiva Calvo Defender
10
Juan Cruz
Juan Cruz Midfielder
12
Luis Asué
Luis Asué
Attacker82'
11
Duk
Duk Midfielder
20
Óscar Plano
Óscar Plano Midfielder
9
Dani Rodríguez
Dani Rodríguez
Midfielder78'
24
Amadou Diawara
Amadou Diawara Midfielder
26
Carlos Guirao
Carlos Guirao Midfielder
8
Seydouba Cissé
Seydouba Cissé
Midfielder46'
23
Álex Millán
Álex Millán Attacker
19
Diego García
Diego García
Attacker69'
Referee : Andrés Fuentes Molina

Starting XI ▼

1
Esteban Andrada
Esteban Andrada Goalkeeper
2
Juan Sebastián
Juan Sebastián Defender
36
Alejandro Gomes Furtado
Alejandro Gomes Furtado
Defender78'
16
Aleksandar Radovanovic
Aleksandar Radovanovic Defender
18
Jawad El Yamiq
Jawad El Yamiq Defender
27
Juan Larios
Juan Larios Defender
6
Keidi Bare
Keidi Bare Midfielder
26
Mawuli Kwame Mensah Vadze
Mawuli Kwame Mensah Vadze
Midfielder68'
11
Rober González
Rober González Midfielder
17
Sebas Moyano
Sebas Moyano Midfielder
3
Dani Tasende
Dani Tasende
Defender68'
23
Marcos Cuenca
Marcos Cuenca Midfielder
25
Nikola Cumic
Nikola Cumic
Attacker68'
33
Yussif Saidu
Yussif Saidu Midfielder
9
Dani Gómez
Dani Gómez Attacker
19
Kenan Kodro
Kenan Kodro
Attacker85'

Events

2ND-HALF
85'
Event
Kenan Kodro → Dani Gómez
9th Substitution
Event
Luis Asué → Juan Cruz
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Ignasi Miquel
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
79'
Event
Dani Rodríguez → Óscar Plano
7th Substitution
78'
78'
Event
Alejandro Gomes Furtado → Juan Sebastián
6th Substitution
Event
Diego García → Álex Millán
5th Substitution
69'
68'
Event
Nikola Cumic → Marcos Cuenca
2nd Substitution
68'
Event
Mawuli Kwame Mensah Vadze → Keidi Bare
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Dani Tasende → Sebas Moyano
4th Substitution
Event
Seydouba Cissé → Carlos Guirao
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Carlos Guirao
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
36'
35'
Event
Sebas Moyano
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Óscar Plano
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
19'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Real Zaragoza exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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