Granada vs Huesca Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes Sat, 28 Mar - 3:15 PM
La Liga 2
Granada GRA
4 Winner 2
Huesca HUE
Full Time Sat, 28 Mar 3:15 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Pablo Sáenz - 26', 29'
José Manuel Arnáiz - 31'
Jorge Pascual - 64'
Goal
|
Goal
Sergi Enrich - 38'
Liberto Beltrán - 73'

CONTEXT

The match between Granada and Huesca has finished, with the sides battling to a 1-1 draw at full-time. As the designated stronger team, Granada was widely expected to secure a home victory, holding a dominant 49.6% implied win probability compared to Huesca's 21.3% chance. Consequently, this stalemate represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, resulting in an underwhelming outcome for Granada. Granada controlled a slight majority of the ball, finishing with 52% possession to Huesca's 48%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, it cannot be mathematically determined if the final scoreline was consistent with the underlying chance quality. However, the teams' overall scoring output remained in line with general efficiency shifts during the contest. Ultimately, the 1-1 draw means the outcome failed to align with the pre-match market consensus, instead rewarding the 29.1% probability of a tie. The game proceeded smoothly without any major disciplinary disruptions; neither team received a red card, ensuring this unexpected result was determined entirely at even strength without any numerical disadvantages.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Granada showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Granada J. Rojo Martín
J. Rojo Martín
VS
Huesca J. Pérez Alonso
J. Pérez Alonso
1.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.91
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Málaga Rank: 68 L
Ceuta Rank: 61 L
Real Valladolid Rank: 61 W
Leganés Rank: 67 L
Racing Santander Rank: 71 W
Cádiz Rank: 60 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Valladolid Rank: 61 L
Mirandés Rank: 58 L
Ceuta Rank: 61 W
Sporting Gijón Rank: 65 L
Cádiz Rank: 60 W
FC Andorra Rank: 60 D
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 5 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Granada
49.61%
Draw
29.09%
Away Huesca
21.31%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
67.16
58.17
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Granada
Huesca
Power Score
67.16
58.17
League Position
11
19
Global Rank
253
515

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Granada — Opponent-weighted form score
Huesca — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Granada Huesca

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Granada

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Huesca

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Granada ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Huesca
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
16.44
33.44
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.44
16.44
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Granada -1.72 Efficiency Index
vs
Huesca +1.72 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Granada
Huesca
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Granada ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Huesca
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Granada Huesca
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Granada Huesca
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Granada
Huesca
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Granada GRA Home
11 matches
Huesca HUE Away
Match Record
3
Wins
3
5
Draws
5
3
Losses
3
Goals
14
Goals Scored
13
13
Goals Conceded
14
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-29T00:00:32+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Astralaga Aranguren
Spain
13 A. Astralaga Aranguren
O. Naasei Oppong
Substitution
Ghana
28 O. Naasei Oppong
M. Maroto
Spain
5 M. Maroto
L. Ntambue Kayumba
Spain
24 L. Ntambue Kayumba
B. Diallo
Senegal
22 B. Diallo
P. Serra
Spain
8 P. Serra
I. González Muñoz
Spain
41 I. González Muñoz
M. Trigueros Muñoz
Substitution
Spain
14 M. Trigueros Muñoz
P. Saenz Ezquerra
Substitution
Spain
21 P. Saenz Ezquerra
G. Petit Abad
Substitution
Uruguay
9 G. Petit Abad
J. Arnáiz Díaz
Substitution
Spain
11 J. Arnáiz Díaz
D. Jiménez López
Spain
13 D. Jiménez López
J. Martín Camuñas
Substitution
Spain
8 J. Martín Camuñas
J. Pulido Mayoral
Spain
14 J. Pulido Mayoral
I. Sebastián Magaña
Spain
5 I. Sebastián Magaña
A. Carrillo Alacid
Spain
4 A. Carrillo Alacid
Ó. Sielva Moreno
Spain
23 Ó. Sielva Moreno
J. Seoane Valenciano
Substitution
Spain
10 J. Seoane Valenciano
D. Ojeda Saranova
Substitution
Spain
21 D. Ojeda Saranova
F. Portillo Soler
Spain
20 F. Portillo Soler
I. Laquintana Marsico
Substitution
Uruguay
19 I. Laquintana Marsico
S. Enrich Ametller
Substitution
Spain
9 S. Enrich Ametller

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 28, 2026, 03:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes
Capacity
19189
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Dámaso Arcediano Monescillo
Christian Arlex Valverde Monsalve
Samuel Sanz Torcal
David Cambronero González

Statistics

Possession
GRA
50%
HUE
50%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 3
2 Shots 3
31 Dangerous attacks 41
52 Possession 48
2 Corners 6
15 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

5 Goal Attempts 10
5 Substitutions 5
13 Throwins 29
16 Dribble Attempts 13
31 Successful Dribbles Percentage 54
100 Ball Safe 98
12 Goal Kicks 6
5 Successful Dribbles 7

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 2
94 Attacks 100

Possession

416 Passes 369
82 Successful Passes Percentage 77
55 Long Passes 54
341 Successful Passes 285
27 Successful Long Passes 22
6 Key Passes 12
49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41

Defensive

1 Saves 0
8 Interceptions 5
8 Tackles 24

Build-up

1 Accurate Crosses 8
11 Total Crosses 29

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
6 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Dámaso Arcediano Monescillo

Starting XI ▼

13
Ander Astralaga
Ander Astralaga Goalkeeper
5
Manu Lama
Manu Lama Defender
22
Baïla Diallo
Baïla Diallo Defender
24
Loïc Williams
Loïc Williams Defender
28
Oscar Naasei Oppong
Oscar Naasei Oppong Defender
18
Álvaro Lemos
Álvaro Lemos
Defender46'
8
Pedro Alemañ Serna
Pedro Alemañ Serna Midfielder
14
Manu Trigueros
Manu Trigueros Midfielder
4
Rubén Alcaraz
Rubén Alcaraz
Midfielder46'
41
Izan González
Izan González Midfielder
9
Gonzalo Petit
Gonzalo Petit Attacker
19
Jorge Pascual
Jorge Pascual
Attacker57'
11
José Manuel Arnáiz
José Manuel Arnáiz Attacker
7
Álex Sola
Álex Sola
Attacker70'
21
Pablo Sáenz
Pablo Sáenz Attacker
2
40
Baba Diocou
Baba Diocou
Attacker81'
Referee : Dámaso Arcediano Monescillo

Starting XI ▼

13
Dani Jiménez
Dani Jiménez Goalkeeper
4
Álvaro Carrillo
Álvaro Carrillo Defender
5
Piña
Piña Defender
8
Jordi Martín
Jordi Martín Defender
3
Ro Abajas
Ro Abajas
Defender86'
14
Jorge Pulido
Jorge Pulido Defender
10
Jaime Seoane
Jaime Seoane Midfielder
15
Álex Cantero
Álex Cantero
Attacker80'
19
Ignacio Laquintana
Ignacio Laquintana Midfielder
11
Liberto Beltrán
Liberto Beltrán
Attacker60'
20
Francisco Portillo
Francisco Portillo Midfielder
21
Dani Ojeda
Dani Ojeda Midfielder
33
Daniel Luna
Daniel Luna
Midfielder86'
23
Óscar Sielva
Óscar Sielva Midfielder
9
Sergi Enrich
Sergi Enrich Attacker
18
Enol Rodríguez
Enol Rodríguez
Attacker60'

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Ro Abajas
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Daniel Luna
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
86'
Event
Ro Abajas → Jordi Martín
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Daniel Luna → Dani Ojeda
10th Substitution
Event
Baba Diocou → Pablo Sáenz
8th Substitution
81'
80'
Event
Álex Cantero → Jaime Seoane
7th Substitution
73'
Event
Liberto Beltrán
Left foot shot / 6th Goal
Event
Álex Sola → José Manuel Arnáiz
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Jorge Pascual
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
64'
60'
Event
Liberto Beltrán → Ignacio Laquintana
4th Substitution
60'
Event
Enol Rodríguez → Sergi Enrich
5th Substitution
Event
Jorge Pascual → Gonzalo Petit
3rd Substitution
57'
57'
Event
Sergi Enrich
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Álvaro Lemos → Oscar Naasei Oppong
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Rubén Alcaraz → Manu Trigueros
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Manu Trigueros
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
42'
38'
Event
Sergi Enrich
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
José Manuel Arnáiz
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
31'
Event
Pablo Sáenz
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
29'
Event
Pablo Sáenz
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
26'
23'
Event
Jorge Pulido
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Oscar Naasei Oppong
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
21'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Granada exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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