Real Valladolid vs Burgos Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla Sat, 28 Mar - 3:15 PM
La Liga 2
Real Valladolid REV
0 Winner 1
Burgos BUR
Full Time Sat, 28 Mar 3:15 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
|
Goal
David González - 90+3' (P)

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Real Valladolid 0–1 Burgos. The result saw Burgos take the points. Burgos showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 54%–46%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Burgos showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Real Valladolid F. Escriba Segura
F. Escriba Segura
VS
Burgos L. Ramis Monfort
L. Ramis Monfort
1.04
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.48
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Leganés Rank: 66 W
Málaga Rank: 66 D
Huesca Rank: 58 W
Sporting Gijón Rank: 65 D
Granada Rank: 67 L
Castellón Rank: 66 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Racing Santander Rank: 71 L
Cádiz Rank: 60 D
Las Palmas Rank: 69 D
Leganés Rank: 67 W
Málaga Rank: 68 L
Huesca Rank: 58 W
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Real Valladolid
41.8%
Draw
29.89%
Away Burgos
28.31%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.35
67.27
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Real Valladolid
Burgos
Power Score
56.35
67.27
League Position
18
5
Global Rank
461
249

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Real Valladolid — Opponent-weighted form score
Burgos — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Real Valladolid Burgos

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Real Valladolid

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Burgos

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Real Valladolid ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Burgos
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.00
17.93
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.93
25.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Real Valladolid +0.71 Efficiency Index
vs
Burgos -0.71 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Real Valladolid
Burgos
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Real Valladolid ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Burgos
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Real Valladolid Burgos
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Real Valladolid Burgos
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Real Valladolid
Burgos
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Real Valladolid REV Home
5 matches
Burgos BUR Away
Match Record
3
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
3
Goals
5
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
5
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-29T00:00:33+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
Á. Aceves Catalina
Spain
1 Á. Aceves Catalina
C. Michelin
France
2 C. Michelin
R. Martinez Gil
Spain
5 R. Martinez Gil
D. Torres Ortiz
Spain
4 D. Torres Ortiz
C. Clerc Martínez
Spain
18 C. Clerc Martínez
I. San José Cantalejo
Substitution
Spain
20 I. San José Cantalejo
S. Jurić
Croatia
24 S. Jurić
J. Ponceau
France
21 J. Ponceau
S. Canós Tenes
Substitution
Spain
7 S. Canós Tenes
J. Latasa Fernandez Layos
Spain
9 J. Latasa Fernandez Layos
V. Erlien
Substitution
Norway
25 V. Erlien
A. Cantero Armendáriz
Spain
13 A. Cantero Armendáriz
F. Miguel
France
12 F. Miguel
G. Sierra Pérez
Spain
8 G. Sierra Pérez
S. González Martínez
Substitution
Spain
6 S. González Martínez
A. Lizancos Saldaña
Spain
2 A. Lizancos Saldaña
I. Córdoba Kerejeta
Substitution
Spain
21 I. Córdoba Kerejeta
M. Atienza Villa
Spain
5 M. Atienza Villa
I. Ruiz
Spain
23 I. Ruiz
D. Gonzalez Ballesteros
Substitution
Spain
14 D. Gonzalez Ballesteros
F. Niño Rodriguez
Substitution
Spain
9 F. Niño Rodriguez
F. Sánchez Rodríguez
Substitution
Spain
16 F. Sánchez Rodríguez

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 28, 2026, 03:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla
Capacity
27618
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Gorka Etayo Herrera
Brian Valencia López
G. Cueto Amigo
Daniel Novoa Hernández

Statistics

Possession
REV
53%
BUR
47%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 4
50 Dangerous attacks 25
54 Possession 46
6 Corners 1
12 Free kicks 16
2 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

8 Goal Attempts 3
0 Penalties 1
0 Injuries 2
3 Substitutions 5
23 Throwins 16
1 Hit Woodwork 0
15 Dribble Attempts 9
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
5 Goal Kicks 8
83 Ball Safe 82
7 Successful Dribbles 3

Attacking

121 Attacks 75
3 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

41 Long Passes 68
490 Passes 431
83 Successful Passes Percentage 80
8 Key Passes 4
13 Successful Long Passes 31
405 Successful Passes 345
32 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46

Defensive

6 Interceptions 11
14 Tackles 10
1 Saves 4

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 4
29 Total Crosses 6

Discipline

10 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Gorka Etayo Herrera

Starting XI ▼

1
Álvaro Aceves
Álvaro Aceves Goalkeeper
2
Clément Michelin
Clément Michelin Defender
4
David Torres
David Torres Defender
5
Ramón Martínez
Ramón Martínez Defender
18
Carlos Clerc
Carlos Clerc Defender
7
Sergi Canós
Sergi Canós Midfielder
17
Stipe Biuk
Stipe Biuk
Attacker82'
20
Chuki
Chuki Midfielder
39
Noah Ohio
Noah Ohio
Attacker82'
21
Julien Ponceau
Julien Ponceau Midfielder
24
Stanko Juric
Stanko Juric Midfielder
9
Juanmi Latasa
Juanmi Latasa Attacker
25
Vegard Erlien
Vegard Erlien Attacker
14
Iván Alejo
Iván Alejo
Attacker61'
Referee : Gorka Etayo Herrera

Starting XI ▼

13
Ander Cantero
Ander Cantero Goalkeeper
2
Álex Lizancos
Álex Lizancos Defender
6
Sergio González
Sergio González Defender
3
Oier Luengo
Oier Luengo
Defender81'
8
Grego Sierra
Grego Sierra Defender
12
Florian Miguel
Florian Miguel Defender
5
Miguel Atienza
Miguel Atienza Midfielder
14
David González
David González Midfielder
15
Aitor Buñuel
Aitor Buñuel
Defender90+5'
21
Iñigo Córdoba
Iñigo Córdoba Midfielder
22
Brais Martínez
Brais Martínez
Defender81'
23
Iván Morante
Iván Morante Midfielder
9
Fer Niño
Fer Niño Attacker
20
Mario González
Mario González
Attacker69'
16
Curro Sánchez
Curro Sánchez Attacker
11
Víctor Mollejo
Víctor Mollejo
Attacker69'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Aitor Buñuel → David González
8th Substitution
90+4'
Event
Mario González
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
David González
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
85'
Event
David González
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Stipe Biuk → Sergi Canós
6th Substitution
82'
Event
Noah Ohio → Chuki
7th Substitution
82'
81'
Event
Oier Luengo → Sergio González
4th Substitution
81'
Event
Brais Martínez → Iñigo Córdoba
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Mario González → Fer Niño
2nd Substitution
69'
Event
Víctor Mollejo → Curro Sánchez
3rd Substitution
Event
Víctor Meseguer
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
68'
68'
Event
Álex Lizancos
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
63'
Event
Fer Niño
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Iván Alejo → Vegard Erlien
1st Substitution
61'
55'
Event
Curro Sánchez
Var
1ST-HALF
14'
Event
Miguel Atienza
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Stanko Juric
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
11'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Burgos exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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