Atalanta vs Hellas Verona Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Gewiss Stadium Sun, 22 Mar - 2:00 PM
Serie A
Atalanta ATA
1 Winner 0
Hellas Verona VER
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 2:00 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Davide Zappacosta - 37'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Atalanta and Hellas Verona has finished, concluding in a 0-0 full-time draw despite a 1-0 half-time advantage for the hosts. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, frustrating the strongly favored Atalanta side. The hosts entered the fixture with a commanding 67.8% win probability, while a draw sat at just 2

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Atalanta showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Atalanta R. Palladino
R. Palladino
VS
Hellas Verona P. Sammarco
P. Sammarco
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.63
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Parma Rank: 71 W
Pisa Rank: 65 D
Torino Rank: 74 W
Bologna Rank: 79 W
Roma Rank: 84 W
Inter Rank: 90 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bologna Rank: 79 W
Napoli Rank: 87 L
Sassuolo Rank: 74 L
Parma Rank: 71 L
Pisa Rank: 65 D
Cagliari Rank: 70 L
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 4 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Atalanta
67.76%
Draw
21.41%
Away Hellas Verona
10.83%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
85.76
64.61
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Atalanta
Hellas Verona
Power Score
85.76
64.61
League Position
7
19
Global Rank
31
339

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Atalanta — Opponent-weighted form score
Hellas Verona — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Atalanta Hellas Verona

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Atalanta

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hellas Verona

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Atalanta ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hellas Verona
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.25
35.88
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
35.88
23.25
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Atalanta -1.33 Efficiency Index
vs
Hellas Verona +1.33 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Atalanta
Hellas Verona
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Atalanta
vs
Hellas Verona
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Atalanta Hellas Verona
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Atalanta Hellas Verona
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Atalanta
Hellas Verona
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Atalanta ATA Home
23 matches
Hellas Verona VER Away
Match Record
12
Wins
7
4
Draws
4
7
Losses
12
Goals
44
Goals Scored
25
25
Goals Conceded
44
+19
Goal Difference
-19
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:24:21+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
M. Carnesecchi
Italy
29 M. Carnesecchi
G. Scalvini
Italy
42 G. Scalvini
B. Djimsiti
Albania
19 B. Djimsiti
S. Kolašinac
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
23 S. Kolašinac
D. Zappacosta
Italy
77 D. Zappacosta
M. de Roon
Substitution
Netherlands
15 (C) M. de Roon
É. dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
13 É. dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
L. Bernasconi
Italy
47 L. Bernasconi
C. De Ketelaere
Substitution
Belgium
17 C. De Ketelaere
N. Zalewski
Substitution
Poland
59 N. Zalewski
N. Krstović
Montenegro
90 N. Krstović
L. Montipò
Italy
1 (C) L. Montipò
N. Valentini
Argentina
6 N. Valentini
A. Edmundsson
Faroe Islands
5 A. Edmundsson
V. Nelsson
Denmark
15 V. Nelsson
M. Frese
Substitution
Denmark
3 M. Frese
A. Harroui
Substitution
Morocco
21 A. Harroui
R. Gagliardini
Substitution
Italy
63 R. Gagliardini
J. Akpa Akpro
Substitution
Ivory Coast
11 J. Akpa Akpro
R. Belghali
Algeria
7 R. Belghali
G. Orban
Nigeria
16 G. Orban
K. Bowie
Substitution
Scotland
18 K. Bowie

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Gewiss Stadium
Capacity
23439
Attendance
22087
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Giovanni Ayroldi
Filippo Bercigli
Federico Fontani
Valerio Crezzini

Statistics

Possession
ATA
57%
VER
43%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 1
1 Shots 2
59 Dangerous attacks 47
60 Possession 40
2 Corners 4
16 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

8 Goal Kicks 8
5 Successful Dribbles 10
5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0
9 Goal Attempts 7
26 Throwins 25
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53
14 Dribble Attempts 19
21 Successful Headers 23
177 Ball Safe 149

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 1
119 Attacks 97

Possession

35 Successful Long Passes 15
52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
83 Successful Passes Percentage 78
67 Long Passes 45
533 Passes 353
6 Key Passes 10
445 Successful Passes 276

Defensive

10 Interceptions 9
3 Saves 1
17 Tackles 18

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 15
5 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
12 Fouls 16

Lineup

Referee : Giovanni Ayroldi

Starting XI ▼

29
Marco Carnesecchi
Marco Carnesecchi Goalkeeper
7.05
19
Berat Djimsiti
Berat Djimsiti Defender
7.57
23
Sead Kolasinac
Sead Kolasinac Defender
7.29
4
Isak Hien
Isak Hien
Defender76'
6.65
42
Giorgio Scalvini
Giorgio Scalvini Defender
6.93
13
Éderson
Éderson Midfielder
6.8
8
Mario Pašalić
Mario Pašalić
Midfielder63'
6.23
15
Marten de Roon
Marten de Roon (C) Midfielder
6.73
10
Lazar Samardžić
Lazar Samardžić
Midfielder88'
47
Lorenzo Bernasconi
Lorenzo Bernasconi Midfielder
6.94
77
Davide Zappacosta
Davide Zappacosta Midfielder
7.27
17
Charles De Ketelaere
Charles De Ketelaere Attacker
7.31
6
Yunus Musah
Yunus Musah
Midfielder76'
6.62
59
Nicola Zalewski
Nicola Zalewski Attacker
6.91
18
Giacomo Raspadori
Giacomo Raspadori
Attacker63'
6.41
90
Nikola Krstović
Nikola Krstović Attacker
7.15
Referee : Giovanni Ayroldi

Starting XI ▼

1
Lorenzo Montipò
Lorenzo Montipò (C) Goalkeeper
6.31
5
Andrias Edmundsson
Andrias Edmundsson Defender
6.07
6
Nicolás Valentini
Nicolás Valentini Defender
7.01
15
Victor Nelsson
Victor Nelsson Defender
7.18
3
Martin Frese
Martin Frese Midfielder
6.98
2
Daniel Oyegoke
Daniel Oyegoke
Defender46'
6.55
7
Rafik Belghali
Rafik Belghali Midfielder
7.42
11
Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro
Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro Midfielder
7.69
24
Antoine Bernede
Antoine Bernede
Midfielder85'
6.51
21
Abdou Harroui
Abdou Harroui Midfielder
6.6
10
Tomas Suslov
Tomas Suslov
Midfielder66'
6.64
63
Roberto Gagliardini
Roberto Gagliardini Midfielder
6.71
73
Moatasem Al-Musrati
Moatasem Al-Musrati
Midfielder66'
6.9
16
Gift Orban
Gift Orban Attacker
6.7
18
Kieron Bowie
Kieron Bowie Attacker
6.63
9
Amin Sarr
Amin Sarr
Attacker78'
6.65

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Lazar Samardžić → Marten de Roon
10th Substitution
88'
85'
Event
Antoine Bernede → Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro
9th Substitution
Event
Isak Hien
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
83'
78'
Event
Amin Sarr → Kieron Bowie
8th Substitution
Event
Yunus Musah → Charles De Ketelaere
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Isak Hien → Sead Kolasinac
6th Substitution
76'
66'
Event
Tomas Suslov → Abdou Harroui
5th Substitution
66'
Event
Moatasem Al-Musrati → Roberto Gagliardini
4th Substitution
Event
Mario Pašalić → Éderson
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Giacomo Raspadori → Nicola Zalewski
3rd Substitution
63'
63'
Event
Roberto Gagliardini
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
54'
Event
Nicolás Valentini
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Daniel Oyegoke → Martin Frese
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Davide Zappacosta
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
37'
17'
Event
5th Yellowcard
16'
Event
Andrias Edmundsson
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Isak Hien committed a foul against Atalanta.
90
Update Update
Nikola Krstovic from Atalanta committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Lazar Samardzic from Atalanta has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Davide Zappacosta from Atalanta committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Victor Nelsson from Verona has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Amin Sarr from Verona has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
90
Update Update
Rafik Belghali from Verona earned a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with Atalanta defeating Verona 1-0.
90
Update Update
Nicolás Valentini from Verona committed a foul.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Rafik Belghali from Verona fires a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it's intercepted. The assist came from Gift Orban.
89
Update Update
Amin Sarr from Verona committed a foul.
89
Update Update
Yunus Musah from Atalanta was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atalanta: Lazar Samardzic comes on to replace Marten de Roon.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Verona: Antoine Bernede comes on to replace Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro.
83
Update Update
Amin Sarr from Verona earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Isak Hien of Atalanta has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
83
Update Update
Isak Hien committed a foul against Atalanta.
81
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Tomás Suslov from Verona attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
80
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive push from Verona as Gift Orban takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Marco Carnesecchi makes a save to his right. The assist came from Rafik Belghali.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Verona: Amin Sarr replaces Kieron Bowie.
77
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Gift Orban from Verona attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atalanta: Yunus Musah replaces Charles De Ketelaere.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atalanta: Isak Hien replaces Sead Kolasinac.
75
Update Update
Nicolás Valentini from Verona has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
75
Update Update
Foul committed by Charles De Ketelaere of Atalanta.
74
Update Update
Gift Orban commits a handball for Verona.
73
Update Update
Tomás Suslov from Verona has earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
73
Update Update
Marten de Roon from Atalanta committed a foul.
72
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Al Musrati from Verona takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it goes just wide to the left.
70
Update Update
Offside call against Verona. Gift Orban has been flagged for being offside.
68
Update Update
Kieron Bowie from Verona committed a foul.
68
Update Update
Sead Kolasinac from Atalanta has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
67
Update Update
Nikola Krstovic from Atalanta was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
67
Update Update
Andrias Edmundsson from Verona committed a foul.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Verona: Tomás Suslov comes on to replace Abdou Harroui.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Verona: Al Musrati replaces Roberto Gagliardini.
63
Update Update
Roberto Gagliardini commits a foul against a player from Verona.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atalanta: Mario Pasalic comes on to replace Éderson.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atalanta: Giacomo Raspadori comes on to replace Nicola Zalewski.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Roberto Gagliardini of Verona has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
63
Update Update
Éderson from Atalanta earned a free kick in the defensive area.
61
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Nicolás Valentini from Verona attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
61
Update Update
Roberto Gagliardini from Verona has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
61
Update Update
Giorgio Scalvini from Atalanta committed a foul.
60
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Davide Zappacosta from Atalanta took a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it went just wide. The assist came from Nicola Zalewski.
58
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Abdou Harroui from Verona attempted a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
57
Update Update
Nikola Krstovic from Atalanta committed a foul.
57
Update Update
Lorenzo Montipò from Verona has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
56
Update Update
Nikola Krstovic from Atalanta strikes the crossbar with a right-footed attempt from outside the penalty area. The chance was set up by Charles De Ketelaere, who delivered a precise through ball during a quick counterattack.
54
Update Update
Nicolás Valentini from Verona committed a foul.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nicolás Valentini from Verona has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
54
Update Update
Charles De Ketelaere from Atalanta has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
54
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered! Davide Zappacosta from Atalanta attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Lorenzo Bernasconi, who delivered a cross.
52
Update Update
Match interruption - Atalanta.
52
Update Update
The pause has ended. The teams are set to resume play.
50
Update Update
Another offensive effort underway. Nicolás Valentini from Verona heads the ball from the center of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Verona, following a save by Marco Carnesecchi.
48
Corner Corner
Another offensive push! Kieron Bowie from Verona takes a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but Marco Carnesecchi from Atalanta makes a fantastic save, reaching up to deny it in the top right corner. The assist came from Rafik Belghali, who delivered a well-timed through ball.
46
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Verona after a deflection off Davide Zappacosta.
46
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Kieron Bowie from Verona takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Rafik Belghali, who delivered a cross.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Atalanta leading Verona 1-0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Verona: Daniel Oyegoke comes on to replace Martin Frese.
45
Update Update
The second half has kicked off with the score Atalanta 1, Verona 0.
44
Update Update
Nikola Krstovic of Atalanta has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
44
Update Update
Andrias Edmundsson from Verona committed a foul.
41
Update Update
Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro from Verona has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
41
Update Update
Nikola Krstovic from Atalanta committed a foul.
39
Corner Corner
Goal! Atalanta takes the lead, 1-0 against Verona. Davide Zappacosta fires a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area into the bottom left corner.
37
Update Update
Opportunity wasted! Berat Djimsiti of Atalanta attempted a header from the center of the box, but it sailed over the goal. The assist came from Nicola Zalewski, who delivered a cross into the area.
37
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Atalanta takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Verona. Davide Zappacosta scores with a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
35
Update Update
Nicolás Valentini from Verona committed a foul.
35
Update Update
Charles De Ketelaere from Atalanta has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
35
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Kieron Bowie from Verona attempts a left-footed strike from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
31
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Verona after a play that resulted in a deflection off Charles De Ketelaere.
30
Update Update
Roberto Gagliardini from Verona has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
30
Update Update
Roberto Gagliardini from Verona has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
27
Update Update
Nicola Zalewski from Atalanta earned a free kick in an offensive position.
27
Update Update
Victor Nelsson committed a foul against Verona.
26
Update Update
Andrias Edmundsson from Verona committed a foul.
26
Update Update
Nikola Krstovic from Atalanta has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
25
Update Update
Martin Frese from Verona was awarded a free kick on the left flank.
25
Update Update
Fouled by Davide Zappacosta of Atalanta.
24
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Giorgio Scalvini of Atalanta attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
24
Update Update
Roberto Gagliardini from Verona committed a foul.
24
Update Update
Nicola Zalewski from Atalanta has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
24
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Gift Orban from Verona takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Kieron Bowie.
20
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Nikola Krstovic of Atalanta attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the box but failed to find the target.
19
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Nicola Zalewski from Atalanta takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
18
Update Update
Victor Nelsson committed a foul against Verona.
18
Update Update
Éderson from Atalanta has earned a free kick in the offensive zone.
16
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Atalanta after a deflection off Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro.
16
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Andrias Edmundsson from Verona has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
16
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Éderson from Atalanta took a left-footed shot from within the six-yard box, but it was blocked on the left side. The assist came from Davide Zappacosta, who delivered a cross.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Atalanta after Martin Frese allowed the ball to go out.
14
Update Update
Roberto Gagliardini committed a foul against a player from Verona.
14
Update Update
Nicola Zalewski from Atalanta has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
14
Corner Corner
Another offensive play unfolds. Nikola Krstovic from Atalanta heads the ball from the center of the penalty area, but Lorenzo Montipò from Verona makes a great save in the bottom right corner. The assist came from Davide Zappacosta, who delivered a precise cross.
12
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Gift Orban from Verona took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Roberto Gagliardini.
10
Update Update
Match interruption - Atalanta.
10
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
8
Update Update
Sead Kolasinac of Atalanta earned a free kick in the defensive area.
8
Update Update
Sead Kolasinac from Atalanta has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
7
Update Update
Kieron Bowie from Verona committed a foul.
3
Update Update
Berat Djimsiti from Atalanta has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
3
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push. Marten de Roon from Atalanta takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper.
2
Update Update
Martin Frese from Verona earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
2
Update Update
Giorgio Scalvini from Atalanta committed a foul.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Atalanta exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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