Bologna vs Lazio Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara Sun, 22 Mar - 2:00 PM
Serie A
Bologna BOL
0 Winner 2
Lazio LAZ
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 2:00 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
|
Goal
Kenneth Taylor - 72', 82'

CONTEXT

The match between Bologna and Lazio has officially finished, with Lazio securing a 2-0 away victory at full-time. The result represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. Bologna entered the fixture as the market favorites with a 41.5% win probability, while a draw sat at 30.3%. By claiming the win, Lazio defied their low 28.3% implied odds, meaning the final outcome was entirely unaligned with the pre-match market. Despite suffering a home defeat, Bologna controlled the general run of play. The hosts held 54% of the possession compared to Lazio's 46%, and they also generated superior scoring opportunities. Bologna recorded 1.74 expected goals (xG) against Lazio's 0.98 xG. Because of this differential, the final 0-2 scoreline was not consistent with the underlying xG metrics, highlighting a frustrating day in front of goal for the home side. Following a completely even first half where both teams went into the break locked at 0-0, Lazio found their clinical edge in the second period. The match flowed naturally without any red cards to artificially impact the momentum. The underlying efficiency shift was ultimately rated as in line with expectations, but Lazio's ruthless finishing earned them the points.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lazio showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was contrary to expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Diverging from xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Bologna V. Italiano
V. Italiano
VS
Lazio M. Ianni
M. Ianni
1.41
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.35
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fiorentina Rank: 77 L
Hellas Verona Rank: 65 W
Como Rank: 85 D
Atalanta Rank: 86 L
Inter Rank: 90 L
Sassuolo Rank: 74 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Torino Rank: 74 L
Cagliari Rank: 70 D
Atalanta Rank: 86 L
Juventus Rank: 85 D
Genoa Rank: 74 W
Lecce Rank: 69 D
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 11 - 16
16

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Bologna
41.46%
Draw
30.29%
Away Lazio
28.25%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
79.25
81.05
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Bologna
Lazio
Power Score
79.25
81.05
League Position
9
8
Global Rank
68
58

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Bologna — Opponent-weighted form score
Lazio — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Bologna Lazio

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Bologna

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lazio

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Bologna ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lazio
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.85
22.07
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.07
31.85
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Bologna +1.03 Efficiency Index
vs
Lazio -1.03 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Bologna
Lazio
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Bologna
vs
Lazio
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Bologna Lazio
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Bologna Lazio
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Bologna
Lazio
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 35 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Bologna BOL Home
35 matches
Lazio LAZ Away
Match Record
8
Wins
16
11
Draws
11
16
Losses
8
Goals
40
Goals Scored
53
53
Goals Conceded
40
-13
Goal Difference
+13
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:24:23+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
F. Ravaglia
Italy
13 F. Ravaglia
N. Zortea
Substitution
Italy
20 N. Zortea
M. Vitík
Czech Republic
41 M. Vitík
T. Heggem
Substitution
Norway
14 T. Heggem
J. Miranda González
Spain
33 J. Miranda González
S. Sohm
Switzerland
23 S. Sohm
N. Moro
Croatia
6 N. Moro
R. Orsolini
Substitution
Italy
7 (C) R. Orsolini
F. Bernardeschi
Substitution
Italy
10 F. Bernardeschi
J. Rowe
Substitution
England
11 J. Rowe
S. Castro
Argentina
9 S. Castro
E. Motta
Italy
40 E. Motta
N. Varela Tavares
Portugal
17 N. Varela Tavares
A. Romagnoli
Italy
13 A. Romagnoli
M. Fuentes
Substitution
Spain
34 M. Fuentes
A. Marušić
Montenegro
77 A. Marušić
K. Taylor
Netherlands
24 K. Taylor
P. Gabarrón Gil
Spain
4 (C) P. Gabarrón Gil
F. Dele-Bashiru
Nigeria
7 F. Dele-Bashiru
P. Rodríguez Ledesma
Substitution
Spain
9 P. Rodríguez Ledesma
D. Maldini
Substitution
Italy
27 D. Maldini
G. Isaksen
Substitution
Denmark
18 G. Isaksen

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara
Capacity
36532
Attendance
27162
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Ermanno Feliciani
Alessio Berti
Paolo Laudato
Andrea Zanotti

Statistics

Possession
BOL
54%
LAZ
46%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 5
5 Shots 4
44 Dangerous attacks 23
54 Possession 46
2 Corners 1
7 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

3 Goal Kicks 10
1 Penalties 0
78 Ball Safe 84
9 Goal Attempts 5
0 Injuries 1
5 Substitutions 4
0 Assists 1
14 Dribble Attempts 14
9 Successful Headers 8
20 Throwins 19
64 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
9 Successful Dribbles 7
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 3
108 Attacks 65

Possession

12 Key Passes 6
25 Successful Long Passes 28
585 Passes 511
90 Successful Passes Percentage 85
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
49 Long Passes 63
528 Successful Passes 435

Defensive

3 Saves 3
8 Interceptions 8
14 Tackles 9

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 8
5 Accurate Crosses 0

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
13 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Ermanno Feliciani

Starting XI ▼

13
Federico Ravaglia
Federico Ravaglia Goalkeeper
6.42
14
Torbjørn Heggem
Torbjørn Heggem Defender
6.51
26
Jhon Lucumí
Jhon Lucumí
Defender75'
6.08
20
Nadir Zortea
Nadir Zortea Defender
6.3
19
Lewis Ferguson
Lewis Ferguson
Midfielder89'
6.54
33
Juan Miranda
Juan Miranda Defender
7.4
41
Martin Vitík
Martin Vitík Defender
7.14
6
Nikola Moro
Nikola Moro Midfielder
7.53
7
Riccardo Orsolini
Riccardo Orsolini (C) Midfielder
6.91
30
Benja Domínguez
Benja Domínguez
Attacker62'
6.59
10
Federico Bernardeschi
Federico Bernardeschi Midfielder
7.11
24
Thijs Dallinga
Thijs Dallinga
Attacker75'
6.46
11
Jonathan Rowe
Jonathan Rowe Midfielder
6.88
28
Nicolò Cambiaghi
Nicolò Cambiaghi
Attacker62'
6.47
23
Simon Sohm
Simon Sohm Midfielder
6.65
9
Santiago Castro
Santiago Castro Attacker
7
Referee : Ermanno Feliciani

Starting XI ▼

40
Edoardo Motta
Edoardo Motta Goalkeeper
7.47
13
Alessio Romagnoli
Alessio Romagnoli Defender
7.03
17
Nuno Tavares
Nuno Tavares Defender
6.77
34
Mario Gila
Mario Gila Defender
6.56
25
Oliver Provstgaard
Oliver Provstgaard
Defender26'
6.79
77
Adam Marusic
Adam Marusic Defender
7.7
4
Patric
Patric (C) Midfielder
6.91
7
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru Midfielder
6.69
24
Kenneth Taylor
Kenneth Taylor Midfielder
2
8.61
9
Pedro
Pedro Attacker
6.49
14
Tijjani Noslin
Tijjani Noslin
Attacker46'
6.64
18
Gustav Isaksen
Gustav Isaksen Attacker
6.87
22
Matteo Cancellieri
Matteo Cancellieri
Attacker61'
6.66
27
Daniel Maldini
Daniel Maldini Attacker
6.39
19
Boulaye Dia
Boulaye Dia
Attacker62'
7.2

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Lewis Ferguson → Nadir Zortea
9th Substitution
89'
82'
Event
Kenneth Taylor
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
77'
Event
Kenneth Taylor
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Thijs Dallinga → Federico Bernardeschi
7th Substitution
75'
Event
Jhon Lucumí → Torbjørn Heggem
8th Substitution
75'
72'
Event
Kenneth Taylor
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Vincenzo Italiano
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
67'
Event
Santiago Castro
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
65'
Event
Nicolò Cambiaghi → Jonathan Rowe
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Benja Domínguez → Riccardo Orsolini
6th Substitution
62'
62'
Event
Boulaye Dia → Daniel Maldini
5th Substitution
61'
Event
Matteo Cancellieri → Gustav Isaksen
3rd Substitution
Event
Riccardo Orsolini
GoalkeeperSave
51'
46'
Event
Tijjani Noslin → Pedro
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
26'
Event
Oliver Provstgaard → Mario Gila
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Nicolò Cambiaghi from Bologna committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Adam Marusic from Lazio has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bologna after a play that resulted in a deflection off Oliver Provstgaard.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with Bologna finishing at 0 and Lazio securing a victory with 2 goals.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Nikola Moro from Bologna takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it goes over the bar and to the right. The assist came from Juan Miranda.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is stopped! Martin Vitík from Bologna takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Lewis Ferguson, who set him up with a header.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bologna: Lewis Ferguson comes on to replace Nadir Zortea.
89
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Matteo Cancellieri from Lazio attempts a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Boulaye Dia.
86
Update Update
Martin Vitík from Bologna has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
86
Update Update
Fouled by Boulaye Dia of Lazio.
85
Update Update
Bologna has been called offside. Nicolò Cambiaghi is in an offside position.
84
Update Update
Opportunity squandered! Santiago Castro from Bologna attempts a header from the center of the box, but it sails over the goal. The assist came from Juan Miranda, who delivered a cross.
82
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Bologna 0, Lazio 2. Kenneth Taylor finds the net for Lazio, striking with his left foot from the left side of the penalty area into the bottom corner. The assist comes from Boulaye Dia, who delivered a perfectly timed through ball.
81
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Matteo Cancellieri from Lazio takes a left-footed shot from a challenging angle on the right. However, Federico Ravaglia of Bologna makes a great save, pushing the ball away to the right corner.
79
Update Update
Nuno Tavares from Lazio committed a foul.
79
Update Update
Benja Domínguez from Bologna has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
77
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kenneth Taylor from Lazio has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
77
Update Update
Kenneth Taylor from Lazio committed a foul.
77
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Santiago Castro from Bologna attempted a header from the center of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Juan Miranda, who delivered a cross.
77
Update Update
Benja Domínguez from Bologna has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bologna: Thijs Dallinga replaces Federico Bernardeschi.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bologna: Jhon Lucumí comes on to replace Torbjørn Heggem.
75
Update Update
Bologna has been flagged for offside. Simon Sohm is caught in an offside position.
72
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Bologna 0, Lazio 1. Kenneth Taylor scores for Lazio with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom left corner.
72
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Boulaye Dia of Lazio takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Tijjani Noslin.
71
Update Update
Nadir Zortea from Bologna earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
71
Update Update
Tijjani Noslin from Lazio committed a foul.
70
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Federico Bernardeschi from Bologna took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the goal. The assist came from Nikola Moro.
70
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Benja Domínguez from Bologna takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Juan Miranda.
68
Update Update
Juan Miranda from Bologna committed a foul.
68
Update Update
Matteo Cancellieri from Lazio earned a free kick in the defensive area.
67
Update Update
Matteo Cancellieri from Lazio committed a foul.
67
Update Update
Matteo Cancellieri from Lazio committed a foul.
65
Update Update
Santiago Castro from Bologna committed a foul.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Santiago Castro from Bologna has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
65
Update Update
Matteo Cancellieri from Lazio earned a free kick in the defensive area.
64
Update Update
Nadir Zortea from Bologna committed a foul.
64
Update Update
Tijjani Noslin from Lazio has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bologna: Nicolò Cambiaghi replaces Jonathan Rowe.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Bologna: Benja Domínguez comes on to replace Riccardo Orsolini.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lazio: Boulaye Dia comes on to replace Daniel Maldini.
61
Update Update
Offside call against Lazio. Tijjani Noslin has been caught offside.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lazio: Matteo Cancellieri comes on to replace Gustav Isaksen.
60
Attempt Attempt
A new offensive play unfolds as Gustav Isaksen from Lazio takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area. However, Bologna's goalkeeper, Federico Ravaglia, makes a save right in the center of the goal. The assist came from Adam Marusic.
59
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Riccardo Orsolini from Bologna takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area. However, Edoardo Motta, the goalkeeper for Lazio, makes a crucial save right in the center of the goal. The assist for this attempt comes from Jonathan Rowe.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bologna after a play that resulted in a deflection off Alessio Romagnoli.
51
Attempt Attempt
Penalty attempt denied! Riccardo Orsolini from Bologna took a shot with his right foot, but it was successfully stopped.
50
Update Update
Bologna has been awarded a penalty! Santiago Castro is brought down inside the box.
50
Update Update
Edoardo Motta of Lazio has given away a penalty due to a foul committed inside the box.
46
Update Update
Nadir Zortea from Bologna committed a foul.
46
Update Update
Tijjani Noslin from Lazio has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
46
Update Update
Nadir Zortea from Bologna committed a foul.
46
Update Update
Tijjani Noslin from Lazio has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lazio: Tijjani Noslin replaces Pedro.
45
Update Update
Juan Miranda from Bologna has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at 0-0 between Bologna and Lazio.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at 0-0 between Bologna and Lazio.
41
Update Update
Oliver Provstgaard from Lazio has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
41
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Gustav Isaksen from Lazio takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Fisayo Dele-Bashiru.
41
Update Update
Santiago Castro from Bologna committed a foul.
39
Update Update
Jonathan Rowe from Bologna committed a foul.
39
Update Update
Oliver Provstgaard from Lazio has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
32
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Nikola Moro from Bologna attempted a shot with his right foot from outside the penalty area.
26
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
26
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lazio: Oliver Provstgaard comes on to replace Mario Gila, who is leaving the field due to injury.
25
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Mario Gila from Lazio.
23
Update Update
Martin Vitík from Bologna committed a foul.
23
Update Update
Daniel Maldini from Lazio has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
23
Update Update
Juan Miranda of Bologna was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
23
Update Update
Gustav Isaksen from Lazio committed a foul.
21
Attempt Attempt
Nikola Moro from Bologna strikes the crossbar with a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
19
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Daniel Maldini from Lazio attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area but sent it wide to the left after a quick counterattack.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Bologna after Nuno Tavares allowed the ball to go out.
18
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Daniel Maldini of Lazio attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area after a quick counterattack.
17
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Riccardo Orsolini from Bologna attempted a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area.
15
Update Update
Gustav Isaksen from Lazio has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
15
Update Update
Jonathan Rowe from Bologna committed a foul.
14
Attempt Attempt
A shot was deflected. Riccardo Orsolini from Bologna attempted a right-footed strike from the right side of the penalty area, but it was blocked.
13
Update Update
Offside call against Bologna. Santiago Castro is caught in an offside position.
9
Update Update
Gustav Isaksen from Lazio has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
9
Update Update
Torbjørn Heggem from Bologna committed a foul.
9
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive push from Lazio. Adam Marusic takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box, but the attempt is saved.
7
Update Update
Kenneth Taylor from Lazio has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
7
Update Update
Santiago Castro from Bologna committed a handball.
7
Update Update
Simon Sohm from Bologna committed a foul.
7
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Federico Bernardeschi from Bologna attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lazio after Jonathan Rowe allowed the ball to go out.
1
Update Update
Torbjørn Heggem from Bologna has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
1
Update Update
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru from Lazio committed a foul.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Lazio exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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