Celta de Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
La Liga
Deportivo Alavés
ALA
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
The match is officially finished, with Deportivo Alavés securing a dramatic 4-3 victory over Celta de Vigo. Celta de Vigo entered the contest as the stronger team and clear favorites, holding a 49% pre-match win probability compared to a 29% chance of a draw and just a 22% chance for the visiting side. Consequently, this outcome represents a significant deviation from expectations in favor of Deportivo Alavés, meaning the final result did not align with the pre-match market. Despite Celta de Vigo taking a commanding 3-1 lead into half-time and controlling 55% of the overall possession, Alavés managed a stunning comeback with only 45% of the ball. Interestingly, the final outcome was entirely consistent with the expected goals (xG) metrics. Deportivo Alavés generated a superior 1.78 xG, while Celta de Vigo recorded a lower 1.38 xG. Both teams saw their finishing efficiency shift in line with expectations throughout this high-scoring affair. Furthermore, the game concluded without any red cards being issued to either side, ensuring that major disciplinary events did not artificially impact the final outcome.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Deportivo Alavés showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Celta de Vigo
Deportivo Alavés
Team Power Ranking
i
82.68
76.36
Celta de Vigo
Deportivo Alavés
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Celta de Vigo
Deportivo Alavés
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Celta de Vigo
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Celta de Vigo
Celta de Vigo
Deportivo Alavés
Celta de Vigo
Deportivo Alavés
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 27 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:24:43+00:00
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General Information
Next Match
Celta de Vigo
vs
Valencia
League: La Liga
Kickoff: Sun, 5 Apr - 2:15 PM
Venue: Away
Deportivo Alavés
vs
Osasuna
League: La Liga
Kickoff: Sun, 5 Apr - 7:00 PM
Venue: Home
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
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Match Commentary