Real Sociedad II vs Granada Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Anoeta Stadium Sun, 22 Mar - 3:15 PM
La Liga 2
Real Sociedad II Real Sociedad II
0 Winner 2
Granada GRA
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 3:15 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
|
Goal
Gonzalo Petit - 1'
Manu Lama - 5'

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished, with Granada securing a 1-0 away victory over Real Sociedad II. Before kickoff, the home side was favored by the markets with a 38.6% implied win probability, while Granada sat at 31% and a draw at 30.4%. As a result, Granada's triumph represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, confirming that the final outcome was not aligned with the initial market consensus. Despite the home defeat, Real Sociedad II controlled the majority of the ball, finishing with 56% possession compared to Granada's 44%. Expected goals (xG) metrics were not available for this contest, making it impossible to assess whether the outcome was consistent with the actual underlying chances created by either side. The fixture proceeded cleanly without any major disciplinary disruptions, as neither team received a red card to alter the tactical landscape. Additionally, the match's efficiency shift was entirely in line with typical baseline expectations. Ultimately, Granada proved to be the stronger side on the scoreboard, overcoming a slight possession deficit and unfavorable pre-match odds to claim the victory.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Granada showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Real Sociedad II J. Ansotegi Gorostola
J. Ansotegi Gorostola
VS
Granada J. Rojo Martín
J. Rojo Martín
1.46
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.41
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Córdoba Rank: 63 W
Castellón Rank: 67 W
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 68 L
Cádiz Rank: 61 W
Málaga Rank: 69 W
FC Andorra Rank: 61 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ceuta Rank: 61 L
Real Valladolid Rank: 61 W
Leganés Rank: 67 L
Racing Santander Rank: 71 W
Cádiz Rank: 61 W
SD Eibar Rank: 69 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Real Sociedad II
38.61%
Draw
30.42%
Away Granada
30.97%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
57.99
67.1
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Real Sociedad II
Granada
Power Score
57.99
67.1
League Position
13
14
Global Rank
383
274

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Real Sociedad II — Opponent-weighted form score
Granada — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Real Sociedad II Granada

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Real Sociedad II

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Granada

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Real Sociedad II ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Granada
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.79
25.34
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.34
36.79
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Real Sociedad II +1.16 Efficiency Index
vs
Granada -1.16 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Real Sociedad II
Granada
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Real Sociedad II ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Granada
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Real Sociedad II Granada
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Real Sociedad II Granada
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Real Sociedad II
Granada
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Real Sociedad II Real Sociedad II Home
1 matches
Granada GRA Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
2
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:24:46+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
A. Fraga Torres
Spain
1 A. Fraga Torres
A. Dadie Izagirre
Substitution
Spain
22 A. Dadie Izagirre
L. Beitia Aguirregomezcorta
Spain
4 (C) L. Beitia Aguirregomezcorta
K. Kita
Japan
15 K. Kita
U. Agote Aranburu
Substitution
Spain
23 U. Agote Aranburu
D. Díaz Gándara
Substitution
Spain
7 D. Díaz Gándara
T. Carbonell Del Rio
14 T. Carbonell Del Rio
I. Aguirre Basurko
Substitution
Spain
31 I. Aguirre Basurko
J. Ochieng
11 J. Ochieng
M. Rodriguez Carrasco
Substitution
Spain
8 M. Rodriguez Carrasco
A. Mariezkurrena Etxezarreta
Spain
10 A. Mariezkurrena Etxezarreta
L. Zidane
France
1 L. Zidane
B. Diallo
Senegal
22 B. Diallo
L. Ntambue Kayumba
Spain
24 L. Ntambue Kayumba
M. Maroto
Spain
5 M. Maroto
O. Naasei Oppong
Ghana
28 O. Naasei Oppong
I. González Muñoz
Substitution
Spain
41 I. González Muñoz
D. Hormigo Iturralde
Substitution
Spain
3 D. Hormigo Iturralde
M. Trigueros Muñoz
Spain
14 (C) M. Trigueros Muñoz
B. Diocou Ndiaye
Substitution
Spain
40 B. Diocou Ndiaye
G. Petit Abad
Substitution
Uruguay
9 G. Petit Abad
A. Sola López Ocaña
Substitution
Spain
7 A. Sola López Ocaña

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 03:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Anoeta Stadium
Capacity
40000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
E. Mallo Fernández
Imanol Irurtzun Artola
Samuel García Aguilera
Marcos Barroso Galán

Statistics

Possession
Real Sociedad II
56%
GRA
44%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 4
52 Dangerous attacks 43
56 Possession 44
7 Corners 5
17 Free kicks 15
5 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

7 Goal Kicks 16
0 Assists 1
87 Ball Safe 91
13 Goal Attempts 8
10 Successful Dribbles 8
24 Dribble Attempts 20
23 Throwins 19
42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
0 Injuries 3
5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

129 Attacks 77
3 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

422 Passes 338
57 Long Passes 76
63 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
351 Successful Passes 255
83 Successful Passes Percentage 75
12 Key Passes 7
36 Successful Long Passes 29

Defensive

7 Interceptions 7
21 Tackles 25
2 Saves 5

Build-up

26 Total Crosses 12
8 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

13 Fouls 14
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : E. Mallo Fernández

Starting XI ▼

1
Aitor Fraga
Aitor Fraga Goalkeeper
6.42
4
Luken Beitia
Luken Beitia (C) Defender
7.04
15
Kazunari Kita
Kazunari Kita Defender
7.17
22
Alberto Dadie
Alberto Dadie Defender
5.67
33
Jakes Gorosabel
Jakes Gorosabel
Attacker82'
6.39
23
Unax Agote
Unax Agote Defender
6.9
29
Jon Garro
Jon Garro
Midfielder67'
6.76
7
Dani Díaz
Dani Díaz Midfielder
6.53
17
Lander Astiazaran
Lander Astiazaran
Midfielder46'
6.58
11
Job Ochieng
Job Ochieng Midfielder
7.09
14
Tomy Carbonell
Tomy Carbonell Midfielder
7.14
31
Ibai Aguirre Basurco
Ibai Aguirre Basurco Midfielder
6.73
21
Joni Eceiza
Joni Eceiza
Midfielder67'
6.34
8
Mikel Rodriguez
Mikel Rodriguez Attacker
6.79
16
Gorka Gorosabel
Gorka Gorosabel
Midfielder77'
6.34
10
Arkaitz Mariezkurrena
Arkaitz Mariezkurrena Attacker
6.83
Referee : E. Mallo Fernández

Starting XI ▼

1
Luca Zidane
Luca Zidane Goalkeeper
7.69
5
Manu Lama
Manu Lama Defender
7.79
22
Baïla Diallo
Baïla Diallo Defender
6.89
24
Loïc Williams
Loïc Williams Defender
7.1
28
Oscar Naasei Oppong
Oscar Naasei Oppong Defender
6.5
3
Diego Hormigo
Diego Hormigo Midfielder
6.6
8
Pedro Alemañ Serna
Pedro Alemañ Serna
Midfielder69'
6.86
14
Manu Trigueros
Manu Trigueros (C) Midfielder
7.7
41
Izan González
Izan González Midfielder
6.64
4
Rubén Alcaraz
Rubén Alcaraz
Midfielder74'
6.53
7
Álex Sola
Álex Sola Attacker
6.46
26
Sergio Rodelas
Sergio Rodelas
Attacker74'
6.34
9
Gonzalo Petit
Gonzalo Petit Attacker
7.18
37
Rayan Zinebi Talbi
Rayan Zinebi Talbi
Attacker81'
6.63
40
Baba Diocou
Baba Diocou Attacker
6.57
21
Pablo Sáenz
Pablo Sáenz
Attacker46'
6.69

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Gorka Gorosabel
Argument / 9th Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Jakes Gorosabel → Alberto Dadie
10th Substitution
82'
81'
Event
Gonzalo Petit
Time wasting / 10th Yellowcard
81'
Event
12th Yellowcard
81'
Event
Rayan Zinebi Talbi → Gonzalo Petit
9th Substitution
Event
Gorka Gorosabel → Mikel Rodriguez
8th Substitution
77'
74'
Event
Rubén Alcaraz → Izan González
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Sergio Rodelas → Álex Sola
7th Substitution
69'
Event
Pedro Alemañ Serna → Diego Hormigo
5th Substitution
Event
Jon Garro → Unax Agote
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Joni Eceiza → Ibai Aguirre Basurco
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Unax Agote
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
65'
60'
Event
Pablo Sáenz
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
Event
Tomy Carbonell
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
54'
50'
Event
Diego Hormigo
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Lander Astiazaran → Dani Díaz
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Pablo Sáenz → Baba Diocou
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
Izan González
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
43'
Event
11th Yellowcard
Event
Alberto Dadie
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
39'
Event
Dani Díaz
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
35'
23'
Event
Baba Diocou
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
5'
Event
Manu Lama
Header / 2nd Goal
1'
Event
Gonzalo Petit
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Granada exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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