FC Groningen vs AZ Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Eredivisie
AZ
AZ
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
The match has officially finished with FC Groningen securing a 2-0 victory over AZ, building on their 1-0 halftime advantage. This result represents a significant deviation by FC Groningen from pre-match expectations. The market originally favored the stronger AZ side with a 41.3% win probability, giving the hosts just a 34% chance. Consequently, the final outcome was not aligned with the pre-match market. Despite AZ controlling a slight majority of the ball with 53% possession compared to Groningen's 47%, the hosts proved far more dangerous in the final third. FC Groningen generated a superior 2.49 expected goals (xG) against AZ's 1.86 xG. Both teams' attacking efficiency was in line with expectations, meaning the final result was completely consistent with the underlying xG metrics. The flow of the game was contested evenly from a disciplinary standpoint and was not impacted by any major infractions, as zero red cards were shown to either side. Ultimately, FC Groningen overcame their underdog status by maximizing their scoring opportunities and neutralizing AZ's possession advantage.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: FC Groningen showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
FC Groningen
AZ
Team Power Ranking
i
66.22
74.4
FC Groningen
AZ
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
FC Groningen
AZ
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
FC Groningen
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
FC Groningen
FC Groningen
AZ
FC Groningen
AZ
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 44 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:24:54+00:00
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General Information
Next Match
FC Groningen
vs
Telstar
League: Eredivisie
Kickoff: Sat, 4 Apr - 4:45 PM
Venue: Away
AZ
vs
Fortuna Sittard
League: Eredivisie
Kickoff: Sat, 4 Apr - 4:45 PM
Venue: Home
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
Manager ▼
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Substitutes ▼








Manager ▼
Starting XI ▼
















Substitutes ▼








Match Commentary