Lokomotiv Moskva vs Akron Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
RZD Arena Sun, 22 Mar - 4:00 PM
Premier League
Lokomotiv Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva
5 Winner 1
Akron Akron
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 4:00 PM
Round 22 Regular Season
César Montes - 6'
Aleksandr Rudenko - 23'
Zelimkhan Bakaev - 26'
Dmitry Vorobyev - 28'
Aleksey Batrakov - 39'
Goal
|
Goal
K. Arévalo - 13'
|
Red Card Rodrigo Escoval 70'

CONTEXT

The match between Lokomotiv Moskva and Akron has officially finished, concluding with a surprising 0-1 full-time victory for the away side, Akron. This final result is unusual given the halftime scoreline, which recorded Lokomotiv Moskva leading 5-1 before the match concluded with Akron ahead. Pre-match market probabilities stood flat at 0% across the board, though Lokomotiv Moskva was recognized as the fundamentally stronger team. Consequently, Akron’s triumph represents a significant deviation in their favor from general expectations. Lokomotiv Moskva dictated the tempo throughout the contest by holding 61% possession, while Akron managed only 39% of the ball. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for both teams, meaning no comparison could be made between the final scoreline and the underlying shot quality. However, the overall efficiency shift was broadly in line with expectations, and the final result was deemed aligned with the pre-match market. A major turning point was the dismissal of an Akron player, resulting in one away red card. This numerical disadvantage forced crucial second-half adjustments and created a notable red card distortion on the pitch. Despite playing a man down, Akron resiliently held off the hosts to seal their improbable victory.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Akron showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Lokomotiv Moskva M. Galaktionov
M. Galaktionov
VS
Akron Z. Tedeev
Z. Tedeev
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.25
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rubin Kazan Rank: 60 L
Akhmat Grozny Rank: 58 D
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 52 W
Sochi Rank: 49 W
Rostov Rank: 60 W
Krasnodar Rank: 77 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Akhmat Grozny Rank: 59 D
Spartak Moskva Rank: 71 L
Orenburg Rank: 52 L
Zenit Rank: 80 L
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 52 L
Sochi Rank: 49 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lokomotiv Moskva
0%
Draw
0%
Away Akron
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.69
54.75
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lokomotiv Moskva
Akron
Power Score
71.69
54.75
League Position
3
11
Global Rank
161
639

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lokomotiv Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Akron — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lokomotiv Moskva Akron

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lokomotiv Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Akron

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lokomotiv Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Akron
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.69
33.08
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.08
38.69
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lokomotiv Moskva +0.62 Efficiency Index
vs
Akron -0.62 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lokomotiv Moskva
Akron
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lokomotiv Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Akron
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lokomotiv Moskva Akron
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lokomotiv Moskva Akron
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lokomotiv Moskva
Akron
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lokomotiv Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva Home
3 matches
Akron Akron Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
2
Goals
8
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
8
+4
Goal Difference
-4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:25:07+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
A. Mitryushkin
Russia
1 (C) A. Mitryushkin
A. Silyanov
Russia
45 A. Silyanov
E. Morozov
Russia
85 E. Morozov
C. Montes Castro
Mexico
23 C. Montes Castro
Lucas Fasson
Brazil
3 Lucas Fasson
D. Prutsev
Substitution
Russia
25 D. Prutsev
A. Karpukas
Russia
93 A. Karpukas
Z. Bakaev
Substitution
Russia
7 Z. Bakaev
A. Batrakov
Substitution
Russia
83 A. Batrakov
A. Rudenko
Substitution
Russia
19 A. Rudenko
D. Vorobyev
Substitution
Russia
10 D. Vorobyev
I. Terekhovskiy
32 I. Terekhovskiy
R. Fernández Toro
Bolivia
21 R. Fernández Toro
M. Bokoev
Russia
19 M. Bokoev
I. Nedelcearu
Substitution
Romania
24 I. Nedelcearu
D. Pestryakov
Russia
71 D. Pestryakov
S. Loncar
Substitution
Montenegro
15 S. Loncar
K. Khosonov
Substitution
Russia
80 K. Khosonov
I. Đakovac
Substitution
Serbia
35 I. Đakovac
K. Arévalo Díaz
10 K. Arévalo Díaz
A. Dzyuba
Russia
22 (C) A. Dzyuba
M. Boldyrev
Substitution
Russia
91 M. Boldyrev

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 22 · Regular Season
Stadium
RZD Arena
Capacity
28800
Attendance
8273
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Sergey Tsyganok
Dmitri Ermakov
Andrey Vereteshkin
Mikhail Cheremnykh

Statistics

Possession
Lokomotiv Moskva
58%
Akron
42%

Top Statistics

5 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 2
11 Shots 4
52 Dangerous attacks 38
61 Possession 39
9 Corners 2
12 Free kicks 17
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

17 Throwins 21
13 Successful Headers 16
5 Assists 1
7 Goal Kicks 6
10 Dribble Attempts 11
1 Injuries 0
14 Goal Attempts 9
73 Ball Safe 64
5 Substitutions 5
3 Successful Dribbles 5
30 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45

Attacking

88 Attacks 68
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

382 Successful Passes 220
83 Successful Passes Percentage 75
62 Long Passes 58
33 Successful Long Passes 29
461 Passes 294
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50

Defensive

11 Interceptions 15
3 Saves 6
13 Tackles 8

Build-up

8 Accurate Crosses 6
23 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

17 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Sergey Tsyganok

Starting XI ▼

1
Anton Mitryushkin
Anton Mitryushkin (C) Goalkeeper
6.84
3
Lucas Fasson
Lucas Fasson Defender
7.25
23
César Montes
César Montes Defender
7.45
45
Alexander Silyanov
Alexander Silyanov Defender
6.96
85
Evgeniy Morozov
Evgeniy Morozov Defender
6.38
7
Zelimkhan Bakaev
Zelimkhan Bakaev Midfielder
7.27
8
Vladislav Sarvelyi
Vladislav Sarvelyi
Midfielder62'
6.48
19
Aleksandr Rudenko
Aleksandr Rudenko Midfielder
7.59
74
Daniil Chevardin
Daniil Chevardin
Defender79'
6.47
25
Danil Prutsev
Danil Prutsev Midfielder
6.73
32
Lucas Vera
Lucas Vera
Midfielder79'
6.79
83
Aleksey Batrakov
Aleksey Batrakov Midfielder
8.77
14
Nikita Saltykov
Nikita Saltykov
Midfielder84'
6.52
93
Artem Karpukas
Artem Karpukas Midfielder
7.48
10
Dmitry Vorobyev
Dmitry Vorobyev Attacker
8.87
27
Nikolay Komlichenko
Nikolay Komlichenko
Attacker63'
6.82
Referee : Sergey Tsyganok

Starting XI ▼

32
Ignat Terekhovskiy
Ignat Terekhovskiy Goalkeeper
6.97
19
Marat Bokoev
Marat Bokoev Defender
6.78
21
Roberto Fernández
Roberto Fernández Defender
6.4
24
Ionuț Nedelcearu
Ionuț Nedelcearu Defender
5.67
6
Maksim Kuzmin
Maksim Kuzmin
Midfielder46'
7.06
71
Dmitriy Pestryakov
Dmitriy Pestryakov Defender
6.45
15
Stefan Loncar
Stefan Loncar Midfielder
6.07
5
Aleksa Djurasovic
Aleksa Djurasovic
Midfielder46'
6.45
35
Ifet Djakovac
Ifet Djakovac Midfielder
6.3
81
Nikita Bazilevskiy
Nikita Bazilevskiy
Attacker72'
6.81
80
Khetag Khosonov
Khetag Khosonov Midfielder
6.2
26
Rodrigo Escoval
Rodrigo Escoval
Defender46'
4.56
10
K. Arévalo
K. Arévalo Attacker
7.14
22
Artem Dzyuba
Artem Dzyuba (C) Attacker
7.03
91
Maksim Boldyrev
Maksim Boldyrev Attacker
6.37
2
Yomar Rocha
Yomar Rocha
Defender76'
6.57

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Nikita Saltykov → Aleksey Batrakov
10th Substitution
84'
Event
Lucas Vera → Danil Prutsev
9th Substitution
79'
Event
Daniil Chevardin → Aleksandr Rudenko
8th Substitution
79'
76'
Event
Yomar Rocha → Maksim Boldyrev
7th Substitution
Event
Nikolay Komlichenko
Goal disallowed
74'
72'
Event
Nikita Bazilevskiy → Ifet Djakovac
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Rodrigo Escoval
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
Event
Nikolay Komlichenko → Dmitry Vorobyev
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Vladislav Sarvelyi → Zelimkhan Bakaev
4th Substitution
62'
46'
Event
Rodrigo Escoval → Khetag Khosonov
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Maksim Kuzmin → Ionuț Nedelcearu
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Aleksa Djurasovic → Stefan Loncar
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Aleksey Batrakov
Right foot shot / 6th Goal
39'
Event
Dmitry Vorobyev
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
28'
Event
Zelimkhan Bakaev
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
26'
Event
Aleksandr Rudenko
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
23'
13'
Event
K. Arévalo
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
César Montes
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
6'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Akron exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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