Dender vs Gent Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Van Roystadion Sun, 22 Mar - 5:30 PM
Pro League
Dender DEN
1 Winner 3
Gent GNT
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 5:30 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Fabio Ferraro - 14'
Goal
|
Goal
Max Dean - 11'
Abdelkahar Kadri - 65'
Wilfried Kanga - 89'

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished, with Gent securing a 2-0 full-time victory away against Dender. Going into the fixture, the pre-match market rightly favored the stronger away side, giving Gent a 42% implied win probability compared to Dender's 30.7% and a 27.3% chance of a draw. Ultimately, the final result was market aligned, though it represented a significant positive deviation (58%) in favor of Gent. Despite Dender controlling the majority of the ball with 55% possession, it was Gent who proved far more threatening with their 45% share. The final outcome was completely consistent with the expected goals (xG) metrics, as Gent generated 1.7 xG compared to a lower 0.94 xG from Dender. After the teams were even at halftime, Gent pulled away in the later stages to claim the win. The post-match efficiency shift was entirely in line with expectations, as the visitors capitalized on their superior chance creation. Furthermore, the match flowed continuously without any major disciplinary disruptions, as zero red cards were issued to either side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Gent showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Dender Y. Ferrera
Y. Ferrera
VS
Gent R. Demil
R. Demil
0.81
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.41
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 84 L
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 71 D
Cercle Brugge Rank: 67 D
Sint-Truiden Rank: 77 L
OH Leuven Rank: 67 L
Zulte-Waregem Rank: 64 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zulte-Waregem Rank: 63 W
Mechelen Rank: 70 W
Genk Rank: 77 L
Cercle Brugge Rank: 67 L
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 70 W
OH Leuven Rank: 67 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 3 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dender
30.67%
Draw
27.3%
Away Gent
42.03%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
61.02
72.62
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dender
Gent
Power Score
61.02
72.62
League Position
16
4
Global Rank
456
149

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dender — Opponent-weighted form score
Gent — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dender Gent

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dender

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Gent

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dender ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gent
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.64
33.89
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.89
31.64
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dender -0.20 Efficiency Index
vs
Gent +0.20 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dender
Gent
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dender
vs
Gent
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dender Gent
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dender Gent
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Dender
Gent
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dender DEN Home
7 matches
Gent GNT Away
Match Record
2
Wins
2
3
Draws
3
2
Losses
2
Goals
8
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
8
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:25:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
G. Gallon
France
93 G. Gallon
J. Sambu Mansoni
Belgium
70 J. Sambu Mansoni
L. Marijnissen
Netherlands
5 L. Marijnissen
B. Goncalves
France
7 B. Goncalves
F. Ferraro
Substitution
Belgium
88 F. Ferraro
N. Rodes
Substitution
Belgium
18 (C) N. Rodes
N. Mbamba
Substitution
Belgium
17 N. Mbamba
D. Hrnčár
Substitution
Slovakia
20 D. Hrnčár
M. Viltard
France
24 M. Viltard
R. Květ
Czech Republic
16 R. Květ
D. Toshevski
Substitution
Macedonia
9 D. Toshevski
D. Roef
Belgium
33 (C) D. Roef
S. Van der Heyden
Belgium
44 S. Van der Heyden
M. Volckaert
Belgium
57 M. Volckaert
D. Hashioka
Japan
4 D. Hashioka
T. Alves Araújo
Substitution
Portugal
20 T. Alves Araújo
L. da Silva Lopes
Substitution
Portugal
22 L. da Silva Lopes
T. De Vlieger
Belgium
27 T. De Vlieger
M. Skóraś
Poland
8 M. Skóraś
H. Hong
Substitution
South Korea
24 H. Hong
A. Kanga
Substitution
France
7 A. Kanga
M. Dean
Substitution
England
21 M. Dean

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Van Roystadion
Capacity
8157
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Wesli De Cremer
Gianni Seeldraeyers
Wouter Cochet
Tom Stevens

Statistics

Possession
DEN
52%
GNT
48%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
1 Big Chances Created 2
9 Shots 10
48 Dangerous attacks 65
55 Possession 45
6 Corners 3
5 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

25 Throwins 28
79 Ball Safe 71
9 Successful Headers 17
8 Goal Kicks 8
11 Dribble Attempts 15
10 Goal Attempts 11
5 Successful Dribbles 5
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
1 Assists 2
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

92 Attacks 88
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

430 Passes 356
81 Successful Passes Percentage 78
18 Successful Long Passes 25
12 Key Passes 8
347 Successful Passes 276
47 Long Passes 57
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44

Defensive

5 Saves 3
19 Tackles 16
5 Interceptions 9

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 4
23 Total Crosses 25

Discipline

12 Fouls 4
0 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Wesli De Cremer

Starting XI ▼

93
Gauthier Gallon
Gauthier Gallon Goalkeeper
7.03
5
Luc Marijnissen
Luc Marijnissen Defender
6.09
7
Bryan Goncalves
Bryan Goncalves Defender
6.44
70
Marsoni Sambu
Marsoni Sambu Defender
6.96
88
Fabio Ferraro
Fabio Ferraro Defender
7.8
45
Amine Daali
Amine Daali
Midfielder78'
6.49
16
Roman Kvet
Roman Kvet Midfielder
6.6
17
Noah Mbamba
Noah Mbamba Midfielder
6.52
19
Jordan Kadiri
Jordan Kadiri
Attacker88'
18
Nathan Rôdes
Nathan Rôdes (C) Midfielder
6.55
11
Ragnar Oratmangoen
Ragnar Oratmangoen
Attacker71'
6.44
20
David Hrncar
David Hrncar Midfielder
6.73
27
Alireza Jahanbakhsh
Alireza Jahanbakhsh
Attacker71'
6.62
24
Malcolm Viltard
Malcolm Viltard Midfielder
6.8
9
David Toševski
David Toševski Attacker
6.24
90
Mohamed Berte
Mohamed Berte
Attacker71'
6.45
Referee : Wesli De Cremer

Starting XI ▼

33
Davy Roef
Davy Roef (C) Goalkeeper
6.9
4
Daiki Hashioka
Daiki Hashioka Defender
6.47
44
Siebe Van der Heyden
Siebe Van der Heyden Defender
7.29
57
Matties Volckaert
Matties Volckaert Defender
6.85
8
Michal Skoras
Michal Skoras Midfielder
7.34
20
Tiago Araújo
Tiago Araújo Midfielder
6.5
29
Jean-Kévin Duverne
Jean-Kévin Duverne
Defender90+3'
22
Leonardo Lopes
Leonardo Lopes Midfielder
6.95
37
Abdelkahar Kadri
Abdelkahar Kadri
Midfielder61'
7.4
27
Tibe De Vlieger
Tibe De Vlieger Midfielder
6.99
7
Wilfried Kanga
Wilfried Kanga Attacker
8.19
75
Ibrahima Cissé
Ibrahima Cissé
Attacker90+3'
21
Max Dean
Max Dean Attacker
7.54
10
Aimé Omgba
Aimé Omgba
Midfielder79'
6.78
24
Hyun-seok Hong
Hyun-seok Hong Attacker
6.6
45
Hyllarion Goore
Hyllarion Goore
Attacker61'
6.34

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
90+4'
90+4'
Event
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Jean-Kévin Duverne → Tiago Araújo
10th Substitution
90+3'
Event
Ibrahima Cissé → Wilfried Kanga
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Wilfried Kanga
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Jordan Kadiri → Noah Mbamba
8th Substitution
88'
83'
Event
Tiago Araújo
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Amine Daali
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
81'
Event
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
81'
79'
Event
Aimé Omgba → Max Dean
7th Substitution
Event
Amine Daali → Fabio Ferraro
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Alireza Jahanbakhsh → David Hrncar
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Mohamed Berte → David Toševski
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Ragnar Oratmangoen → Nathan Rôdes
5th Substitution
71'
70'
Event
Wilfried Kanga
Goal disallowed
65'
Event
Abdelkahar Kadri
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
61'
Event
Abdelkahar Kadri → Leonardo Lopes
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Hyllarion Goore → Hyun-seok Hong
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Fabio Ferraro
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
14'
11'
Event
Max Dean
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Gent exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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