La Louvière vs Genk Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stade du Tivoli Sun, 22 Mar - 5:30 PM
Pro League
La Louvière RAAL
5 – 5
Genk GNK
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 5:30 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Yllan Okou - 37'
Jerry Afriyie - 43'
Tobias Lawal - 68' (Own Goal)
Nachon Nsingi - 90+5'
Wagane Faye - 90+6'
Goal
|
Goal
Daan Heymans - 6'
Robin Mirisola - 15'
Junya Ito - 45+3'
Zakaria El Ouahdi - 50'
Aaron Bibout - 86'

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished, with La Louvière securing a 3-2 upset victory over Genk. Pre-match expectations favored the visiting side, who held a 41.6% win probability compared to La Louvière's 31.9% and a 26.6% chance of a draw. Consequently, the final result represented a significant deviation for La Louvière, meaning the outcome was not aligned with the pre-match market. On the pitch, Genk largely dictated the tempo, commanding 55% of the possession while the hosts managed 45%. The visitors also created slightly better scoring opportunities, recording 1.76 expected goals (xG) compared to La Louvière's 1.57 xG. Because La Louvière took all three points despite trailing in chance creation, the final outcome was not consistent with the underlying xG metrics. Despite the statistical upset, the finishing efficiency shift was evaluated to be in line with overall match dynamics. Furthermore, the contest flowed without major disciplinary disruptions, as zero red cards were shown to either side. This clean disciplinary record ensured that the significant upset was decided purely through regular play rather than an artificial numerical advantage.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: La Louvière showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was contrary to expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Diverging from xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
La Louvière F. Taquin
F. Taquin
VS
Genk N. Hayen
N. Hayen
0.95
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.59
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cercle Brugge Rank: 67 W
Antwerp Rank: 70 D
Standard Liège Rank: 69 D
Mechelen Rank: 71 L
Anderlecht Rank: 73 D
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 85 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mechelen Rank: 71 W
Anderlecht Rank: 73 W
Dender Rank: 61 W
Cercle Brugge Rank: 67 D
Zulte-Waregem Rank: 64 L
Club Brugge Rank: 84 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home La Louvière
31.87%
Draw
26.58%
Away Genk
41.55%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
57.84
77.04
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
La Louvière
Genk
Power Score
57.84
77.04
League Position
14
7
Global Rank
245
80

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
La Louvière — Opponent-weighted form score
Genk — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) La Louvière Genk

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

La Louvière

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Genk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

La Louvière ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Genk
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
45.56
28.91
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.91
45.56
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
La Louvière +1.47 Efficiency Index
vs
Genk -1.47 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
La Louvière
Genk
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

La Louvière
vs
Genk
Created Set-piece attacking threat
La Louvière Genk
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
La Louvière Genk
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
La Louvière
Genk
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

La Louvière RAAL Home
3 matches
Genk GNK Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
0
Goals
3
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
3
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:25:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
M. Peano
Argentina
21 (C) M. Peano
W. Faye
Senegal
4 W. Faye
Y. Okou
France
99 Y. Okou
M. Maisonneuve
France
13 M. Maisonneuve
J. Liongola
Substitution
Burundi
11 J. Liongola
S. Lahssaini
Substitution
Belgium
15 S. Lahssaini
S. Joel Ito
Substitution
Belgium
23 S. Joel Ito
N. Gillot
France
3 N. Gillot
M. Ashimeru
Substitution
Ghana
18 M. Ashimeru
P. Fall
Senegal
7 P. Fall
J. Afriyie
22 J. Afriyie
T. Okiki Lawal
Austria
26 T. Okiki Lawal
J. Kayembe Ditu
Belgium
18 J. Kayembe Ditu
M. Smets
Belgium
6 M. Smets
J. Ndenge Kongolo
Substitution
Belgium
44 J. Ndenge Kongolo
Z. El Ouahdi
Morocco
77 Z. El Ouahdi
I. Bangoura
Substitution
Guinea
21 I. Bangoura
J. Ito
Substitution
Japan
10 J. Ito
D. Heymans
Belgium
38 D. Heymans
B. Heynen
Belgium
8 (C) B. Heynen
K. Karetsas
Belgium
20 K. Karetsas
R. Mirisola
Substitution
Belgium
29 R. Mirisola

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stade du Tivoli
Capacity
13500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Nathan Verboomen
Maarten Toeback
Mathias Hillaert
Anaik Jacoby

Statistics

Possession
RAAL
47%
GNK
53%

Top Statistics

5 Goals 5
3 Big Chances Created 7
4 Shots 2
50 Dangerous attacks 38
45 Possession 55
10 Corners 3
9 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

20 Successful Headers 19
67 Ball Safe 69
11 Successful Dribbles 9
29 Throwins 17
14 Goal Attempts 9
4 Goal Kicks 8
3 Assists 3
4 Substitutions 4
0 Hit Woodwork 1
41 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53
27 Dribble Attempts 17

Attacking

112 Attacks 92
0 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

75 Successful Passes Percentage 80
9 Key Passes 10
37 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
349 Passes 445
20 Successful Long Passes 34
262 Successful Passes 356
54 Long Passes 72

Defensive

2 Saves 4
19 Tackles 30
7 Interceptions 4

Build-up

10 Accurate Crosses 3
27 Total Crosses 11

Discipline

9 Fouls 6
0 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Nathan Verboomen

Starting XI ▼

21
Marcos Peano
Marcos Peano (C) Goalkeeper
5.24
4
Wagane Faye
Wagane Faye Defender
7.2
13
Maxence Maisonneuve
Maxence Maisonneuve Defender
5.91
99
Yllan Okou
Yllan Okou Defender
6.67
3
Nolan Gillot
Nolan Gillot Midfielder
8.41
11
Jordi Liongola
Jordi Liongola Midfielder
5.97
98
Owen Maës
Owen Maës
Midfielder87'
15
Sami Lahssaini
Sami Lahssaini Midfielder
6.04
8
Samuel Gueulette
Samuel Gueulette
Midfielder87'
23
Joël Ito
Joël Ito Midfielder
5.87
27
Nachon Nsingi
Nachon Nsingi
Attacker80'
7.33
7
Pape Moussa Fall
Pape Moussa Fall Attacker
7.28
18
Majeed Ashimeru
Majeed Ashimeru Attacker
6.13
28
Bryan Soumaré
Bryan Soumaré
Midfielder71'
6.34
22
Jerry Afriyie
Jerry Afriyie Attacker
6.9
Referee : Nathan Verboomen

Starting XI ▼

26
Tobias Lawal
Tobias Lawal Goalkeeper
5.99
6
Matte Smets
Matte Smets Defender
6.75
18
Joris Kayembe
Joris Kayembe Defender
6.46
44
Josué Kongolo
Josué Kongolo Defender
6.53
23
Aaron Bibout
Aaron Bibout
Attacker80'
7.27
77
Zakaria El Ouahdi
Zakaria El Ouahdi Defender
6.71
8
Bryan Heynen
Bryan Heynen (C) Midfielder
5.94
10
Junya Ito
Junya Ito Midfielder
7.08
3
Mujaid Sadick
Mujaid Sadick
Defender80'
6.11
20
Konstantinos Karetsas
Konstantinos Karetsas Midfielder
7.91
21
Ibrahima Bangoura
Ibrahima Bangoura Midfielder
6.45
24
Nikolas Sattlberger
Nikolas Sattlberger
Midfielder58'
6.32
38
Daan Heymans
Daan Heymans Midfielder
8.89
29
Robin Mirisola
Robin Mirisola Attacker
7.26
14
Yira Sor
Yira Sor
Attacker69'
6.48

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Wagane Faye
Header / 9th Goal
90+6'
Event
Nachon Nsingi
Left foot shot / 8th Goal
90+5'
Event
Owen Maës → Jordi Liongola
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Samuel Gueulette → Sami Lahssaini
7th Substitution
87'
86'
Event
Aaron Bibout
Header / 7th Goal
Event
Bryan Soumaré
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
85'
Event
Nachon Nsingi → Joël Ito
5th Substitution
80'
80'
Event
Aaron Bibout → Josué Kongolo
4th Substitution
80'
Event
Mujaid Sadick → Junya Ito
6th Substitution
Event
Jordi Liongola
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
73'
Event
Bryan Soumaré → Majeed Ashimeru
3rd Substitution
71'
69'
Event
Yira Sor → Robin Mirisola
2nd Substitution
Event
Tobias Lawal
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal
68'
58'
Event
Nikolas Sattlberger → Ibrahima Bangoura
1st Substitution
50'
Event
Zakaria El Ouahdi
Right foot shot / 6th Goal
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Event
Junya Ito
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
Event
Jerry Afriyie
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
43'
41'
Event
Tobias Lawal
Time wasting / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Yllan Okou
Header / 3rd Goal
37'
15'
Event
Robin Mirisola
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
6'
Event
Daan Heymans
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: La Louvière exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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