Standard Liège vs Westerlo Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stade Maurice Dufrasne Sun, 22 Mar - 5:30 PM
Pro League
Standard Liège STL
0 – 0
Westerlo KVC
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 5:30 PM
Round 30 Regular Season

CONTEXT

The match between Standard Liège and Westerlo has finished in a 0-0 draw, following an equally goalless first half. Going into the game, the pre-match market slightly favored Standard Liège with a 38.9% win probability, compared to Westerlo's 32% and a 29.1% chance for a draw. However, the final stalemate represented a significant deviation from these expectations, ultimately favoring Westerlo with a 70.9% deviation percentage. Because of this, the final result did not align with the pre-match market projections. Looking at the underlying numbers, Westerlo emerged as the significantly stronger team on the pitch. The visitors controlled the ball with 53% possession compared to Standard Liège's 47%, and generated a vastly superior expected goals (xG) tally of 2.21 against the hosts' minimal 0.6 xG. Because Westerlo failed to convert this attacking advantage into a victory, the final draw was not consistent with the xG data. Despite the lack of goals, both teams' overall efficiency shift remained in line with standard expectations. Furthermore, the match flowed evenly without any major disciplinary disruptions, as zero red cards were shown to either side during the contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Westerlo showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was contrary to expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Diverging from xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Standard Liège V. Euvrard
V. Euvrard
VS
Westerlo I. Charai
I. Charai
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.32
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Antwerp Rank: 70 D
Zulte-Waregem Rank: 63 W
La Louvière Rank: 68 D
Genk Rank: 77 W
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 85 D
Club Brugge Rank: 84 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Club Brugge Rank: 83 L
OH Leuven Rank: 65 W
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: 85 D
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 70 W
Antwerp Rank: 70 W
Sint-Truiden Rank: 77 L
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 10 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Standard Liège
38.89%
Draw
29.1%
Away Westerlo
32.01%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.6
69.99
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Standard Liège
Westerlo
Power Score
68.6
69.99
League Position
8
9
Global Rank
229
198

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Standard Liège — Opponent-weighted form score
Westerlo — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Standard Liège Westerlo

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Standard Liège

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Westerlo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Standard Liège ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Westerlo
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
19.36
43.58
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
43.58
19.36
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Standard Liège -2.14 Efficiency Index
vs
Westerlo +2.14 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Standard Liège
Westerlo
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Standard Liège
vs
Westerlo
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Standard Liège Westerlo
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Standard Liège Westerlo
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Standard Liège
Westerlo
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 33 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Standard Liège STL Home
33 matches
Westerlo KVC Away
Match Record
14
Wins
9
10
Draws
10
9
Losses
14
Goals
47
Goals Scored
43
43
Goals Conceded
47
+4
Goal Difference
-4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:25:48+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
L. Epolo Matthieu
Belgium
1 (C) L. Epolo Matthieu
I. Hautekiet
Belgium
25 I. Hautekiet
D. Bates
Scotland
4 D. Bates
J. Homawoo
Substitution
Togo
24 J. Homawoo
H. Lawrence
England
18 H. Lawrence
C. Nielsen
Denmark
94 C. Nielsen
I. Karamoko
Substitution
France
20 I. Karamoko
G. Mortensen
Denmark
3 G. Mortensen
T. Teuma
Substitution
Malta
80 T. Teuma
R. Said Ahamada
Substitution
Comoros
17 R. Said Ahamada
T. NKada
Substitution
France
59 T. NKada
A. Jungdal
Denmark
99 A. Jungdal
A. Lapage
Belgium
4 A. Lapage
R. Neustädter
Russia
33 R. Neustädter
E. Bayram
Turkey
40 E. Bayram
B. Reynolds
United States
22 B. Reynolds
A. Piedfort
Belgium
46 A. Piedfort
D. Haspolat
Netherlands
34 (C) D. Haspolat
J. Alcócer
Substitution
Costa Rica
77 J. Alcócer
I. Sakamoto
Japan
13 I. Sakamoto
S. Saito
Substitution
38 S. Saito
I. Ferri Julià
Spain
90 I. Ferri Julià

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stade Maurice Dufrasne
Capacity
27670
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Anthony Letellier
Bert Put
Koen Thijs
Tom Vanpoucke

Statistics

Possession
STL
46%
KVC
54%

Top Statistics

0 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 10
42 Dangerous attacks 42
47 Possession 53
6 Corners 9
6 Free kicks 13
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

16 Dribble Attempts 13
6 Successful Dribbles 5
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
19 Successful Headers 23
13 Goal Kicks 6
26 Throwins 18
4 Goal Attempts 10
71 Ball Safe 60
5 Substitutions 2
2 Injuries 1
1 Hit Woodwork 0
0 Penalties 1

Attacking

74 Attacks 100
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

243 Successful Passes 312
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 53
24 Successful Long Passes 29
72 Successful Passes Percentage 81
336 Passes 387
51 Long Passes 55
5 Key Passes 15

Defensive

21 Tackles 13
3 Interceptions 10
4 Saves 1

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 8
12 Total Crosses 20

Discipline

14 Fouls 6
8 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Bert Put

Starting XI ▼

1
Matthieu Epolo
Matthieu Epolo (C) Goalkeeper
8.04
4
David Bates
David Bates Defender
7.15
24
Josué Homawoo
Josué Homawoo Defender
6.46
11
Adnane Abid
Adnane Abid
Attacker57'
6.5
25
Ibe Hautekiet
Ibe Hautekiet Defender
7.06
3
Gustav Julius Mortensen
Gustav Julius Mortensen Midfielder
6.73
18
Henry Lawrence
Henry Lawrence Midfielder
6.9
20
Ibrahim Karamoko
Ibrahim Karamoko Midfielder
6.6
8
Nayel Mehssatou
Nayel Mehssatou
Defender24'
6.5
94
Casper Nielsen
Casper Nielsen Midfielder
6.52
17
Rafiki Saïd
Rafiki Saïd Attacker
6.71
7
Tobias Mohr
Tobias Mohr
Midfielder83'
6.33
59
Timothé Nkada
Timothé Nkada Attacker
6.68
10
Dennis Eckert Ayensa
Dennis Eckert Ayensa
Attacker57'
6.67
80
Teddy Teuma
Teddy Teuma Attacker
6.9
26
Bernard Nguene
Bernard Nguene
Attacker57'
6.6
Referee : Bert Put

Starting XI ▼

99
Andreas Jungdal
Andreas Jungdal Goalkeeper
6.98
4
Amando Lapage
Amando Lapage Defender
7.36
22
Bryan Reynolds
Bryan Reynolds Defender
6.81
33
Roman Neustädter
Roman Neustädter Defender
6.96
40
Emin Bayram
Emin Bayram Defender
6.96
13
Isa Sakamoto
Isa Sakamoto Midfielder
7.05
34
Doğucan Haspolat
Doğucan Haspolat (C) Midfielder
7.08
38
Shunsuke Saito
Shunsuke Saito Midfielder
6.84
39
Thomas Van den Keybus
Thomas Van den Keybus
Midfielder69'
6.78
46
Arthur Piedfort
Arthur Piedfort Midfielder
6.91
77
Josimar Alcócer
Josimar Alcócer Midfielder
6.48
11
Naoufal Bohamdi-Kamoni
Naoufal Bohamdi-Kamoni
Attacker87'
90
Nacho Ferri
Nacho Ferri Attacker
7.88

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
David Bates
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+5'
87'
Event
Naoufal Bohamdi-Kamoni → Josimar Alcócer
7th Substitution
Event
Tobias Mohr → Rafiki Saïd
6th Substitution
83'
77'
Event
Doğucan Haspolat
GoalkeeperSave
76'
Event
Nacho Ferri
Penalty awarded
Event
Casper Nielsen
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
73'
69'
Event
Thomas Van den Keybus → Shunsuke Saito
5th Substitution
Event
Ibe Hautekiet
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
65'
Event
Adnane Abid → Josué Homawoo
2nd Substitution
57'
Event
Dennis Eckert Ayensa → Timothé Nkada
3rd Substitution
57'
Event
Bernard Nguene → Teddy Teuma
4th Substitution
57'
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Doğucan Haspolat
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Nayel Mehssatou → Ibrahim Karamoko
1st Substitution
24'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Westerlo exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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