Zulte-Waregem vs Sporting Charleroi Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Elindus Arena Sun, 22 Mar - 5:30 PM
Pro League
Zulte-Waregem ZUL
1 Winner 0
Sporting Charleroi SPC
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 5:30 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Jeppe Erenbjerg - 41'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Zulte-Waregem and Sporting Charleroi has officially finished in a 0-0 draw. Curiously, the match data indicates Zulte-Waregem held a 1-0 advantage at half-time before the game ultimately concluded without any goals credited at full-time. The final draw was not aligned with the pre-match market, which initially gave Zulte-Waregem a 39.4% win probability against Sporting Charleroi's 33.4%, alongside a 27.3% chance for a stalemate. Because Sporting Charleroi was rated as the stronger team, this scoreless result represented a significant deviation (72.7%) from pre-match expectations. On the pitch, Sporting Charleroi controlled the tempo, dominating the ball with 63% possession compared to Zulte-Waregem's 37%. Despite this distinct disparity in control, the expected goals (xG) metrics were tightly contested. Zulte-Waregem slightly edged the overall

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sporting Charleroi showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Zulte-Waregem S. Colpaert
S. Colpaert
VS
Sporting Charleroi H. Cornelis
H. Cornelis
0.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.05
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gent Rank: 70 L
Standard Liège Rank: 67 L
Mechelen Rank: 71 L
Anderlecht Rank: 73 L
Sint-Truiden Rank: 77 L
Dender Rank: 61 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
OH Leuven Rank: 65 L
Dender Rank: 61 D
Club Brugge Rank: 84 L
Westerlo Rank: 70 L
Gent Rank: 73 L
Cercle Brugge Rank: 67 L
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 9 - 19
19

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Zulte-Waregem
39.35%
Draw
27.26%
Away Sporting Charleroi
33.39%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
55.22
69.91
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Zulte-Waregem
Sporting Charleroi
Power Score
55.22
69.91
League Position
13
11
Global Rank
353
201

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Zulte-Waregem — Opponent-weighted form score
Sporting Charleroi — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Zulte-Waregem Sporting Charleroi

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Zulte-Waregem

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sporting Charleroi

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Zulte-Waregem ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sporting Charleroi
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.57
23.57
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.57
32.57
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Zulte-Waregem +0.79 Efficiency Index
vs
Sporting Charleroi -0.79 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Zulte-Waregem
Sporting Charleroi
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Zulte-Waregem
vs
Sporting Charleroi
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Zulte-Waregem Sporting Charleroi
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Zulte-Waregem Sporting Charleroi
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Zulte-Waregem
Sporting Charleroi
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Zulte-Waregem ZUL Home
37 matches
Sporting Charleroi SPC Away
Match Record
9
Wins
19
9
Draws
9
19
Losses
9
Goals
51
Goals Scored
70
70
Goals Conceded
51
-19
Goal Difference
+19
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:25:48+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
B. Gabriel
Belgium
13 B. Gabriel
L. Lemoine
Substitution
Belgium
4 L. Lemoine
J. Kiilerich
Denmark
5 J. Kiilerich
L. Willen
Belgium
31 L. Willen
B. Nyssen
Substitution
Belgium
19 B. Nyssen
D. Asare
Belgium
40 D. Asare
T. Claes
Substitution
Belgium
8 T. Claes
M. Ake
France
39 M. Ake
J. Erenbjerg
Denmark
10 (C) J. Erenbjerg
A. Ementa
Denmark
18 A. Ementa
J. Amankwaah Opoku
Substitution
22 J. Amankwaah Opoku
M. Kone
France
30 M. Kone
J. Gaudin
Substitution
France
23 J. Gaudin
C. keita
France
95 C. keita
A. Ousou
Sweden
4 (C) A. Ousou
L. Blum
Switzerland
27 L. Blum
E. Camara
Substitution
France
5 E. Camara
Y. Titraoui
Algeria
22 Y. Titraoui
A. Bernier
Substitution
Belgium
17 A. Bernier
J. Romsaas
Norway
8 J. Romsaas
P. Pflücke
Substitution
Germany
14 P. Pflücke
A. Scheidler
France
21 A. Scheidler

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Elindus Arena
Capacity
12414
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Bram Van Driessche
Dunken Van De Velde
Yves De Neve
Quentin Lesceux

Statistics

Possession
ZUL
41%
SPC
59%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 4
41 Dangerous attacks 57
37 Possession 63
4 Corners 10
9 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

17 Throwins 20
11 Goal Kicks 4
67 Ball Safe 72
9 Goal Attempts 7
18 Successful Headers 18
10 Successful Dribbles 8
19 Dribble Attempts 13
1 Assists 0
1 Injuries 2
4 Substitutions 4
1 Hit Woodwork 0
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 62

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 1
97 Attacks 105

Possession

77 Successful Passes Percentage 85
324 Passes 539
249 Successful Passes 459
6 Key Passes 9
58 Long Passes 61
29 Successful Long Passes 41
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 67

Defensive

16 Tackles 21
4 Saves 2
16 Interceptions 6

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 30
2 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

7 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Bram Van Driessche

Starting XI ▼

13
Brent Gabriel
Brent Gabriel Goalkeeper
7.91
4
Laurent Lemoine
Laurent Lemoine Defender
7.03
12
Wilguens Paugain
Wilguens Paugain
Defender90'
5
Jakob Kiilerich
Jakob Kiilerich Defender
6.79
31
Lukas Willen
Lukas Willen Defender
7.3
8
Thomas Claes
Thomas Claes Midfielder
7.01
6
Enrique Lofolomo
Enrique Lofolomo
Midfielder56'
6.36
19
Benoit Nyssen
Benoit Nyssen Midfielder
6.67
45
Benoit De Jaegere
Benoit De Jaegere
Defender80'
6.56
39
Marley Ake
Marley Ake Midfielder
6.66
40
Dirk Asare
Dirk Asare Midfielder
7.02
10
Jeppe Erenbjerg
Jeppe Erenbjerg (C) Attacker
7.45
18
Anosike Ementa
Anosike Ementa Attacker
7.31
22
Joseph Okopu
Joseph Okopu Attacker
7.07
30
Malick Mbaye
Malick Mbaye
Attacker79'
6.65
Referee : Bram Van Driessche

Starting XI ▼

30
Mohamed Koné
Mohamed Koné Goalkeeper
7.4
4
Aiham Ousou
Aiham Ousou (C) Defender
7.16
23
Jules Gaudin
Jules Gaudin Defender
6.85
24
Mardochée Nzita
Mardochée Nzita
Defender80'
6.7
27
Lewin Blum
Lewin Blum Defender
6.73
95
Check Keita
Check Keita Defender
6.65
5
Étienne Camara
Étienne Camara Midfielder
6.41
9
Filip Szymczak
Filip Szymczak
Attacker66'
6.72
8
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas Midfielder
7.11
14
Patrick Pflücke
Patrick Pflücke Midfielder
6.47
25
Antoine Colassin
Antoine Colassin
Attacker80'
6.52
17
Antoine Bernier
Antoine Bernier Midfielder
7.19
45
Y. Cisse
Y. Cisse
Midfielder86'
22
Yassine Titraoui
Yassine Titraoui Midfielder
7.58
21
Aurélien Scheidler
Aurélien Scheidler Attacker
6.99

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Wilguens Paugain → Laurent Lemoine
8th Substitution
90'
86'
Event
Y. Cisse → Antoine Bernier
7th Substitution
Event
Brent Gabriel
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
85'
Event
Benoit De Jaegere → Benoit Nyssen
5th Substitution
80'
80'
Event
Antoine Colassin → Patrick Pflücke
4th Substitution
80'
Event
Mardochée Nzita → Jules Gaudin
6th Substitution
Event
Malick Mbaye → Joseph Okopu
3rd Substitution
79'
71'
Event
Aiham Ousou
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
66'
Event
Filip Szymczak → Étienne Camara
2nd Substitution
Event
Enrique Lofolomo → Thomas Claes
1st Substitution
56'
1ST-HALF
Event
Jeppe Erenbjerg
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
41'
27'
Event
Check Keita
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Sporting Charleroi exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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