FC Augsburg vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart
VFB
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
The match between FC Augsburg and VfB Stuttgart has officially finished, with the two sides battling to a 2-2 full-time draw. Going into the fixture, VfB Stuttgart were considered the stronger team, holding a 47.2% pre-match market probability to win, compared to Augsburg's 27.8% and a 25% chance of a draw. The drawn result represents a significant deviation from these expectations, as Stuttgart failed to secure the anticipated away victory. Stuttgart controlled the flow of the match, dominating the ball with 60% possession to Augsburg's 40%. The visitors also created the better scoring opportunities, finishing with an expected goals (xG) tally of 2.36 against Augsburg's 1.5. Because Stuttgart held a solid xG advantage, the final drawn outcome was not consistent with the underlying xG metrics, nor did it align with the pre-match market predictions. Despite this, the overall efficiency shift was ultimately in line with statistical projections. The match concluded without any major disciplinary disruptions, as there were zero red cards issued to either side. Playing 11 against 11 for the full duration, Augsburg successfully defied both the odds and the match statistics to claim a hard-fought point.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: VfB Stuttgart showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was contrary to expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Diverging from xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
FC Augsburg
VfB Stuttgart
Team Power Ranking
i
75.64
86.23
FC Augsburg
VfB Stuttgart
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
FC Augsburg
VfB Stuttgart
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
FC Augsburg
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
FC Augsburg
FC Augsburg
VfB Stuttgart
FC Augsburg
VfB Stuttgart
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 25 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:25:56+00:00
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General Information
Next Match
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vs
Hamburger SV
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sat, 4 Apr - 1:30 PM
Venue: Away
VfB Stuttgart
vs
Borussia Dortmund
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sat, 4 Apr - 4:30 PM
Venue: Home
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
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Match Commentary