Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu Sun, 22 Mar - 8:00 PM
La Liga
Real Madrid RMA
3 Winner 2
Atlético Madrid ATM
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 8:00 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
Vinicius Junior - 52' (P), 72'
Federico Valverde - 55'
Goal
|
Goal
Ademola Lookman - 33'
Nahuel Molina - 66'
Federico Valverde 77' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

The match between Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid has finished, with Real Madrid securing a 3-1 full-time victory. Ahead of the fixture, the market favored the hosts with a 47.1% implied win probability, compared to a 28.3% chance for an away win and 24.6% for a draw. The final result was fully market aligned. However, with a probability deviation of 52.9%, Real Madrid recorded a significant deviation level as the deviation team, successfully overcoming a 1-0 halftime deficit to claim the win. The underlying statistics validated the final scoreline, as the outcome was fully consistent with expected goals (xG). Real Madrid edged possession with 52% and generated a dominant 2.82 xG. Atlético Madrid held the remaining 48% possession and managed 1.32 xG. Scoring was standard for the chances created, with the final efficiency shift remaining entirely in line with statistical expectations. Match dynamics were notably impacted by a second-half red card distortion after Real Madrid received one sending off. Despite playing with ten men, the designated stronger team maintained their composure to close out the fixture and ensure a definitive home triumph.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Real Madrid showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Real Madrid Á. Arbeloa Coca
Á. Arbeloa Coca
VS
Atlético Madrid D. Simeone
D. Simeone
2.25
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.38
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Villarreal Rank: 84 W
Levante Rank: 73 W
Real Betis Rank: 82 W
Sevilla Rank: 74 W
Deportivo Alavés Rank: 76 W
Celta de Vigo Rank: 83 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mallorca Rank: 75 W
Deportivo Alavés Rank: 76 W
Real Sociedad Rank: 82 D
Girona Rank: 76 W
Valencia Rank: 78 W
Athletic Club Rank: 79 L
28
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
28 - 18 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Real Madrid
47.13%
Draw
24.58%
Away Atlético Madrid
28.29%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
94.91
90.06
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Real Madrid
Atlético Madrid
Power Score
94.91
90.06
League Position
2
4
Global Rank
5
13

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Real Madrid — Opponent-weighted form score
Atlético Madrid — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Real Madrid Atlético Madrid

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Real Madrid

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Atlético Madrid

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Real Madrid ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Atlético Madrid
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.60
31.56
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.56
37.60
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Real Madrid +0.56 Efficiency Index
vs
Atlético Madrid -0.56 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Real Madrid
Atlético Madrid
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Real Madrid
vs
Atlético Madrid
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Real Madrid Atlético Madrid
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+1.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Real Madrid Atlético Madrid
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Real Madrid
Atlético Madrid
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 58 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Real Madrid RMA Home
58 matches
Atlético Madrid ATM Away
Match Record
28
Wins
12
18
Draws
18
12
Losses
28
Goals
92
Goals Scored
61
61
Goals Conceded
92
+31
Goal Difference
-31
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:26:10+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
A. Lunin
Ukraine
13 A. Lunin
D. Carvajal Ramos
Substitution
Spain
2 (C) D. Carvajal Ramos
A. Rüdiger
Germany
22 A. Rüdiger
D. Huijsen
Spain
24 D. Huijsen
F. García Torres
Spain
20 F. García Torres
F. Valverde Dipetta
Uruguay
8 F. Valverde Dipetta
T. Pitarch Pinar
Substitution
45 T. Pitarch Pinar
A. Tchouaméni
France
14 A. Tchouaméni
A. Guler
Substitution
Turkey
15 A. Guler
B. Abdelkader Diaz
Substitution
Spain
21 B. Abdelkader Diaz
V. Júnior
Substitution
Brazil
7 V. Júnior
J. Musso
Argentina
1 J. Musso
M. Ruggeri
Italy
3 M. Ruggeri
D. Hancko
Slovakia
17 D. Hancko
R. Le Normand
Substitution
Spain
24 R. Le Normand
M. Llorente Moreno
Spain
14 M. Llorente Moreno
A. Lookman
Substitution
Nigeria
22 A. Lookman
J. Resurrección Merodio
Spain
6 (C) J. Resurrección Merodio
J. de Souza Cardoso
Substitution
Brazil
5 J. de Souza Cardoso
G. Simeone
Substitution
Argentina
20 G. Simeone
J. Álvarez
Argentina
19 J. Álvarez
A. Griezmann
Substitution
France
7 A. Griezmann

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 08:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Capacity
84744
Attendance
77964
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Alejandro Clemente Ortuño
José Luis Munuera Montero
Antonio Ramón Martínez Moreno
Adrián Díaz González

Statistics

Possession
RMA
53%
ATM
47%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
5 Big Chances Created 2
17 Shots 13
51 Dangerous attacks 43
52 Possession 48
4 Corners 1
14 Free kicks 4
1 Yellow Cards 4
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

16 Dribble Attempts 9
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
7 Successful Dribbles 6
4 Goal Kicks 7
1 Hit Woodwork 1
17 Throwins 9
3 Successful Headers 10
1 Assists 2
5 Substitutions 5
1 Penalties 0
65 Ball Safe 63
13 Goal Attempts 10

Attacking

116 Attacks 77
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

56 Successful Long Passes Percentage 58
91 Successful Passes Percentage 89
508 Successful Passes 451
559 Passes 505
28 Successful Long Passes 15
50 Long Passes 26
11 Key Passes 13

Defensive

2 Interceptions 6
5 Saves 5
11 Tackles 18

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 15
2 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
2 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : José Luis Munuera Montero

Starting XI ▼

13
Andriy Lunin
Andriy Lunin Goalkeeper
7.17
2
Daniel Carvajal
Daniel Carvajal (C) Defender
7
12
Trent Alexander-Arnold
Trent Alexander-Arnold
Defender64'
6.81
20
Fran García
Fran García Defender
6.7
22
Antonio Rüdiger
Antonio Rüdiger Defender
6.63
24
Dean Huijsen
Dean Huijsen Defender
6.82
8
Federico Valverde
Federico Valverde Midfielder
7.72
14
Aurélien Tchouaméni
Aurélien Tchouaméni Midfielder
6.83
15
Arda Güler
Arda Güler Midfielder
7.22
5
Jude Bellingham
Jude Bellingham
Midfielder74'
6.53
45
Thiago Pitarch
Thiago Pitarch Midfielder
6.36
10
Kylian Mbappé
Kylian Mbappé
Attacker64'
6.57
7
Vinicius Junior
Vinicius Junior Attacker
2
7.76
18
Álvaro Carreras
Álvaro Carreras
Defender87'
21
Brahim Díaz
Brahim Díaz Attacker
6.91
6
Eduardo Camavinga
Eduardo Camavinga
Midfielder74'
6.44
Referee : José Luis Munuera Montero

Starting XI ▼

1
Juan Musso
Juan Musso Goalkeeper
6.75
3
Matteo Ruggeri
Matteo Ruggeri Defender
6.47
14
Marcos Llorente
Marcos Llorente Defender
6.75
17
Dávid Hancko
Dávid Hancko Defender
6.06
24
Robin Le Normand
Robin Le Normand Defender
6.73
2
José María Giménez
José María Giménez
Defender46'
5.39
5
Johnny Cardoso
Johnny Cardoso Midfielder
6.41
23
Nico González
Nico González
Attacker57'
6.65
6
Koke
Koke (C) Midfielder
6.55
20
Giuliano Simeone
Giuliano Simeone Midfielder
8.47
10
Álex Baena
Álex Baena
Midfielder71'
6.74
22
Ademola Lookman
Ademola Lookman Midfielder
7.22
16
Nahuel Molina
Nahuel Molina
Defender57'
7.1
7
Antoine Griezmann
Antoine Griezmann Attacker
6.98
9
Alexander Sørloth
Alexander Sørloth
Attacker57'
6.65
19
Julián Alvarez
Julián Alvarez Attacker
7.73

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Álvaro Carreras  → Vinicius Junior
10th Substitution
87'
Event
Federico Valverde
Foul / 1st Redcard
77'
Event
Eduardo Camavinga → Brahim Díaz
9th Substitution
74'
Event
Jude Bellingham → Arda Güler
8th Substitution
74'
Event
Vinicius Junior
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
72'
71'
Event
Álex Baena → Giuliano Simeone
7th Substitution
68'
Event
Marcos Llorente
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
66'
Event
Nahuel Molina
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Trent Alexander-Arnold  → Daniel Carvajal 
5th Substitution
64'
Event
Kylian Mbappé → Thiago Pitarch
6th Substitution
64'
Event
6th Yellowcard
63'
Event
Thiago Pitarch
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
63'
61'
Event
Dávid Hancko
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
57'
Event
Nico González → Johnny Cardoso
2nd Substitution
57'
Event
Nahuel Molina → Ademola Lookman
3rd Substitution
57'
Event
Alexander Sørloth → Antoine Griezmann
4th Substitution
Event
Federico Valverde
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
55'
Event
Vinicius Junior
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
52'
46'
Event
José María Giménez → Robin Le Normand
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
36'
Event
Matteo Ruggeri
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
33'
Event
Ademola Lookman
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
27'
Event
Johnny Cardoso
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Fran García from Real Madrid took a left-footed shot from a distance on the left side.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Julián Alvarez from Atletico Madrid took a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it went wide. The assist came from Koke.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 6 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Julián Alvarez - Atletico Madrid - attempted a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score being Real Madrid 3, Atletico Madrid 2.
90
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds. Álex Baena of Atletico Madrid takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Andrii Lunin, the goalkeeper for Real Madrid, makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist comes from Nico González.
90
Corner Corner
Another offensive effort unfolds. Alexander Sørloth from Atletico Madrid heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but Andrii Lunin of Real Madrid makes a save in the left corner. The assist came from Matteo Ruggeri, who delivered a cross.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Julián Alvarez from Atletico Madrid takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails over the goal. The assist came from Álex Baena.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: Álvaro Carreras comes on to replace Vinícius Júnior.
84
Update Update
Fran García from Real Madrid has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
84
Update Update
Álex Baena committed a foul against Atletico Madrid.
83
Update Update
José María Giménez from Atletico Madrid committed a foul.
83
Update Update
Vinícius Júnior from Real Madrid was awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
83
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds. Trent Alexander-Arnold of Real Madrid takes a right-footed shot from a challenging angle and considerable distance on the left side, but Juan Musso of Atletico Madrid makes a fantastic save, denying it in the top right corner.
81
Attempt Attempt
Julián Alvarez from Atletico Madrid strikes the right post with a right-footed shot taken from outside the penalty area, assisted by Nahuel Molina.
77
Update Update
Federico Valverde from Real Madrid committed a foul.
77
Red Card Red Card Important
Federico Valverde of Real Madrid has been shown a red card.
77
Update Update
Álex Baena from Atletico Madrid was awarded a free kick in the defensive zone.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: Jude Bellingham comes on to replace Arda Güler.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: Eduardo Camavinga comes on to replace Brahim Díaz.
72
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Real Madrid takes the lead with a score of 3-2 against Atletico Madrid. Vinícius Júnior has found the back of the net with a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atletico Madrid: Álex Baena replaces Giuliano Simeone.
68
Update Update
Marcos Llorente from Atletico Madrid commits a foul.
68
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marcos Llorente of Atletico Madrid has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
68
Update Update
Kylian Mbappé of Real Madrid has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
66
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now Real Madrid 2, Atletico Madrid 2. Nahuel Molina scores for Atletico Madrid with a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, finding the top left corner of the net. The assist comes from Julián Alvarez.
65
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Julián Alvarez from Atletico Madrid took a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it narrowly missed the target. The assist came from Giuliano Simeone.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: Kylian Mbappé comes on to replace Thiago Pitarch.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: Trent Alexander-Arnold comes on to replace Dani Carvajal.
63
Update Update
Nahuel Molina from Atletico Madrid earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Thiago Pitarch of Real Madrid has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
63
Update Update
Thiago Pitarch from Real Madrid committed a foul.
62
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Federico Valverde of Real Madrid takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it’s stopped by the goalkeeper.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dávid Hancko of Atletico Madrid has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
61
Update Update
Vinícius Júnior from Real Madrid earned a free kick on the right flank.
61
Update Update
Dávid Hancko from Atletico Madrid committed a foul.
60
Update Update
José María Giménez from Atletico Madrid committed a foul.
60
Update Update
Brahim Díaz from Real Madrid earned a free kick in the defensive area.
60
Attempt Attempt
A new offensive effort is underway. Julián Alvarez from Atletico Madrid takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atletico Madrid: Nahuel Molina comes on to replace Ademola Lookman.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atletico Madrid: Nico González comes on to replace Johnny Cardoso.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atletico Madrid: Alexander Sørloth comes on to replace Antoine Griezmann.
55
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered. Antonio Rüdiger of Real Madrid attempted a header from the center of the box following a corner, but it sailed high and to the right of the goal.
55
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Real Madrid takes the lead with a score of 2-1 against Atletico Madrid. Federico Valverde scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, placing it perfectly into the left corner of the net.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Real Madrid after Marcos Llorente allowed the ball to go out.
52
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now 1-1 between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid. Vinícius Júnior steps up for Real Madrid and successfully scores the penalty, placing his right-footed shot into the bottom left corner.
51
Update Update
Dávid Hancko of Atletico Madrid has given away a penalty due to a foul committed in the box.
51
Update Update
Penalty awarded to Real Madrid! Brahim Díaz is fouled inside the box.
48
Update Update
Brahim Díaz of Real Madrid earned a free kick in the defensive area.
48
Update Update
Foul committed by Johnny Cardoso - Atletico Madrid.
47
Update Update
Julián Alvarez from Atletico Madrid committed a foul.
47
Update Update
Julián Alvarez from Atletico Madrid committed a foul.
45
Update Update
Giuliano Simeone from Atletico Madrid commits a handball.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atletico Madrid: José María Giménez replaces Robin Le Normand.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score at Real Madrid 0, Atletico Madrid 1.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Atletico Madrid: José María Giménez comes on to replace Robin Le Normand.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Real Madrid after Antoine Griezmann allowed the ball to go out of play.
44
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Arda Güler from Real Madrid takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area. The attempt is expertly stopped in the right corner by Juan Musso of Atletico Madrid, with Brahim Díaz providing the assist.
42
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Aurélien Tchouaméni of Real Madrid attempted a header from the center of the box, but it went just wide to the left. The assist came from Dani Carvajal, who delivered a cross.
41
Update Update
Arda Güler of Real Madrid has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
41
Update Update
Koke from Atletico Madrid committed a foul.
37
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Real Madrid after Koke allowed the ball to go out of play.
36
Update Update
Matteo Ruggeri from Atletico Madrid committed a foul.
36
Update Update
Federico Valverde of Real Madrid earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
36
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Matteo Ruggeri of Atletico Madrid has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
35
Update Update
Marcos Llorente of Atletico Madrid committed a foul.
35
Update Update
Fran García from Real Madrid has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
33
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Atletico Madrid takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Real Madrid. Ademola Lookman scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, finding the bottom right corner. The assist comes from Giuliano Simeone, who set him up with a header.
31
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ademola Lookman of Atletico Madrid takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Antoine Griezmann.
29
Corner Corner
Another offensive play unfolds as Federico Valverde from Real Madrid takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. The attempt is expertly stopped in the left corner by Juan Musso of Atletico Madrid, with the assist coming from Vinícius Júnior.
27
Update Update
Vinícius Júnior from Real Madrid has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
27
Update Update
Vinícius Júnior from Real Madrid has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
27
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Johnny Cardoso of Atletico Madrid has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
24
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Vinícius Júnior of Real Madrid attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the right of the goal. The assist came from Aurélien Tchouaméni.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Real Madrid after Koke allowed the ball to go out.
22
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Vinícius Júnior from Real Madrid fires a right-footed shot from close range, but it's blocked.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Real Madrid after Koke allowed the ball to go out.
22
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Vinícius Júnior from Real Madrid attempts a right-footed strike from close range, but it's blocked. The assist came from Aurélien Tchouaméni.
21
Update Update
Johnny Cardoso from Atletico Madrid committed a foul.
21
Update Update
Thiago Pitarch from Real Madrid has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
19
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
18
Update Update
The game is currently paused due to an injury to Marcos Llorente from Atletico Madrid.
14
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Arda Güler of Real Madrid took a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area but failed to find the target. The assist came from Dani Carvajal.
12
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Arda Güler from Real Madrid attempted a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area but it went wide. The assist came from Dani Carvajal.
11
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
10
Update Update
Match paused due to an injury to Marcos Llorente from Atletico Madrid.
9
Attempt Attempt
Federico Valverde of Real Madrid strikes the left post with a right-footed shot taken from the right side of the penalty area, following an assist from Aurélien Tchouaméni.
9
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive push from Atletico Madrid. Marcos Llorente takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but Andrii Lunin, the Real Madrid goalkeeper, makes a save right in the center of the goal. The assist came from Antoine Griezmann.
8
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Antoine Griezmann of Atletico Madrid attempted a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area.
5
Update Update
Offside call against Real Madrid. Vinícius Júnior is caught in an offside position.
3
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Dani Carvajal from Real Madrid takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Juan Musso of Atletico Madrid makes a great save, diving to his left. The assist comes from Brahim Díaz.
2
Update Update
Offside call against Real Madrid. Fran García has been caught in an offside position.
1
Update Update
Fran García from Real Madrid has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
1
Update Update
Foul committed by Johnny Cardoso - Atletico Madrid.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Real Madrid exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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