Akhmat Grozny vs Rostov Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Akhmat Arena Sat, 21 Mar - 10:45 AM
Premier League
Akhmat Grozny AKH
1 Winner 0
Rostov FCR
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 10:45 AM
Round 22 Regular Season
Egas Cacintura - 33'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Akhmat Grozny and Rostov has officially finished, resulting in a 0-0 draw. Coming into the fixture, Rostov were evaluated as the stronger team. However, the scoreless outcome represented a significant deviation from expectations for Rostov, as they failed to secure a victory. Despite this underperformance from the favorites, the final draw was considered market-aligned, reflecting the entirely flat pre-match market values of 0 for the home win, draw, and away win probabilities. During the contest, Akhmat Grozny controlled the bulk of the ball, finishing with 54% possession compared to Rostov's 46%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to definitively evaluate whether the scoreless outcome aligned with the underlying chance creation. However, the overall efficiency shift was ultimately in line with general expectations, with neither side severely overperforming or underperforming in front of the net. The match was notably disciplined and free of major disruptions, as the game concluded with zero red cards for either side. In the end, Rostov’s inability to assert their stronger status allowed Akhmat Grozny to comfortably secure a share of the points in a quiet stalemate.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Rostov showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Akhmat Grozny S. Cherchesov
S. Cherchesov
VS
Rostov J. Alba Cabello
J. Alba Cabello
1.25
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.08
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Akron Rank: 54 D
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: 72 D
CSKA Moskva Rank: 72 W
Orenburg Rank: 52 W
Dinamo Moskva Rank: 71 W
Rubin Kazan Rank: 62 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dinamo Moskva Rank: 71 L
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: 65 D
Krasnodar Rank: 77 L
Rubin Kazan Rank: 62 W
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: 72 L
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 56 L
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 9 - 14
14

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Akhmat Grozny
0%
Draw
0%
Away Rostov
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.16
60.28
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Akhmat Grozny
Rostov
Power Score
60.16
60.28
League Position
8
10
Global Rank
480
476

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Akhmat Grozny — Opponent-weighted form score
Rostov — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Akhmat Grozny Rostov

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Akhmat Grozny

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rostov

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Akhmat Grozny ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rostov
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
16.30
30.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.00
16.30
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Akhmat Grozny -1.52 Efficiency Index
vs
Rostov +1.52 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Akhmat Grozny
Rostov
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Akhmat Grozny ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rostov
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Akhmat Grozny Rostov
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Akhmat Grozny Rostov
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Akhmat Grozny
Rostov
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Akhmat Grozny AKH Home
37 matches
Rostov FCR Away
Match Record
14
Wins
14
9
Draws
9
14
Losses
14
Goals
41
Goals Scored
42
42
Goals Conceded
41
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:21:27+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Pitch
V. Uljanov
Russia
1 V. Uljanov
M. Sidorov
Substitution
Russia
81 M. Sidorov
O. Ndong
Senegal
90 O. Ndong
K. Cake
Albania
5 K. Cake
M. Bogosavac
Substitution
Serbia
8 M. Bogosavac
S. Pryakhin
Substitution
Russia
19 S. Pryakhin
M. Keliano
Angola
42 M. Keliano
M. Samorodov
Substitution
Kazakhstan
20 M. Samorodov
E. dos Santos Cacintura
Substitution
Angola
17 E. dos Santos Cacintura
L. Sadulaev
Substitution
Russia
7 (C) L. Sadulaev
G. Melkadze
Russia
77 G. Melkadze
R. Yatimov
Tajikistan
1 R. Yatimov
D. Semenchuk
Substitution
Russia
22 D. Semenchuk
D. Chistyakov
Russia
78 D. Chistyakov
O. Sako
Substitution
Ivory Coast
3 O. Sako
D. Prokhin
Russia
5 D. Prokhin
G. Ignatov
Russia
67 G. Ignatov
K. Shchetinin
Russia
10 K. Shchetinin
I. Komarov
Substitution
Russia
62 I. Komarov
I. Vakhaniya
Russia
40 I. Vakhaniya
T. Suleymanov
Russia
99 T. Suleymanov
E. Golenkov
Substitution
Russia
69 (C) E. Golenkov

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 10:45 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 22 · Regular Season
Stadium
Akhmat Arena
Capacity
30597
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Evgeny Kukulyak
Andrey Bolotenkov
Aleksey Ermilov
Inal Tanashev

Statistics

Possession
AKH
54%
FCR
46%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 12
36 Dangerous attacks 36
54 Possession 46
4 Corners 3
19 Free kicks 17
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

17 Successful Headers 24
6 Goal Kicks 7
25 Throwins 29
1 Assists 0
54 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
13 Successful Dribbles 5
24 Dribble Attempts 13
0 Hit Woodwork 1
6 Substitutions 4
89 Ball Safe 64
5 Goal Attempts 9
3 Injuries 1

Attacking

93 Attacks 70
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

252 Successful Passes 188
71 Long Passes 63
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
31 Successful Long Passes 27
329 Passes 278
77 Successful Passes Percentage 68

Defensive

7 Interceptions 11
15 Tackles 18
5 Saves 0

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 1
13 Total Crosses 9

Discipline

15 Fouls 16
2 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Evgeny Kukulyak

Starting XI ▼

1
Vadim Ulyanov
Vadim Ulyanov Goalkeeper
7.43
5
Klisman Cake
Klisman Cake Defender
6.94
8
Miroslav Bogosavac
Miroslav Bogosavac Defender
6.61
82
Daniil Khlusevich
Daniil Khlusevich
Defender52'
6.67
81
Maksim Sidorov
Maksim Sidorov Defender
6.66
22
Mohammadmehdi Zare
Mohammadmehdi Zare
Defender66'
6.66
90
Ousmane N’Dong
Ousmane N’Dong Defender
7.12
7
Lechi Sadulaev
Lechi Sadulaev (C) Midfielder
6.43
4
Turpal-Ali Ibishev
Turpal-Ali Ibishev
Defender90+1'
6.45
17
Egas Cacintura
Egas Cacintura Midfielder
7.15
23
Galymzhan Kenzhebek
Galymzhan Kenzhebek
Midfielder90'
6.69
19
S. Pryakhin
S. Pryakhin Midfielder
6.83
37
P. Gadio
P. Gadio
Midfielder90'
6.44
20
Maksim Samorodov
Maksim Samorodov Midfielder
7.05
9
Brian Mansilla
Brian Mansilla
Attacker64'
6.67
42
Kelliano
Kelliano Midfielder
6.86
77
Georgiy Melkadze
Georgiy Melkadze Attacker
7.03
Referee : Evgeny Kukulyak

Starting XI ▼

1
Rustam Yatimov
Rustam Yatimov Goalkeeper
6.74
3
Oumar Sako
Oumar Sako Defender
6.27
87
Andrey Langovich
Andrey Langovich
Defender46'
7.13
22
David Semenchuk
David Semenchuk Defender
6.54
19
Khoren Bayramyan
Khoren Bayramyan
Midfielder87'
78
Dmitriy Chistyakov
Dmitriy Chistyakov Defender
6.97
5
Danila Prokhin
Danila Prokhin Midfielder
6.3
10
Kirill Shchetinin
Kirill Shchetinin Midfielder
7.09
40
Ilya Vakhania
Ilya Vakhania Midfielder
6.39
62
Ivan Komarov
Ivan Komarov Midfielder
6.57
91
Anton Shamonin
Anton Shamonin
Attacker64'
6.59
67
German Ignatov
German Ignatov Midfielder
6.53
69
Egor Golenkov
Egor Golenkov (C) Attacker
6.64
9
Mohammad Mohebi
Mohammad Mohebi
Midfielder76'
6.5
99
Timur Suleymanov
Timur Suleymanov Attacker
6.7

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Turpal-Ali Ibishev → Lechi Sadulaev
10th Substitution
90+1'
Event
P. Gadio → S. Pryakhin
8th Substitution
90'
Event
Galymzhan Kenzhebek → Egas Cacintura
9th Substitution
90'
Event
Lechi Sadulaev
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
88'
87'
Event
Khoren Bayramyan → David Semenchuk
7th Substitution
Event
S. Pryakhin
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
81'
76'
Event
Mohammad Mohebi → Egor Golenkov
6th Substitution
Event
Mohammadmehdi Zare → Maksim Sidorov
5th Substitution
66'
Event
Brian Mansilla → Maksim Samorodov
3rd Substitution
64'
64'
Event
Anton Shamonin → Ivan Komarov
4th Substitution
Event
Daniil Khlusevich → Miroslav Bogosavac
2nd Substitution
52'
46'
Event
Andrey Langovich → Oumar Sako
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
Oumar Sako
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Egas Cacintura
Header / 1st Goal
33'
18'
Event
Ivan Komarov
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Rostov exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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