Ipswich Town vs Millwall Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Portman Road Stadium Sat, 21 Mar - 12:30 PM
Championship
Ipswich Town IPS
1 – 1
Millwall MLW
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 12:30 PM
Round 39 Regular Season
Jack Clarke - 41'
Goal
|
Goal
Josh Coburn - 50'

CONTEXT

The match between Ipswich Town and Millwall has officially finished, ending in a hard-fought 1-1 draw. Ipswich Town entered the halftime break with a 1-0 lead, but Millwall ultimately fought back in the second half to secure a point. This result represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, favoring Millwall's resilience. Going into the fixture, the market heavily favored the hosts with a 54.9% probability of victory, while a draw sat at 25% and a Millwall win at just 20.2%. Consequently, the final drawn outcome did not align with these pre-match market projections. On the pitch, Ipswich Town dictated the tempo, controlling 64% of the possession compared to Millwall's 36%. The hosts also generated the better overall scoring opportunities, registering 2.07 expected goals (xG) against Millwall's 1.52 xG. Because of this underlying offensive advantage, the shared points were not consistent with the final xG data. The overall scoring efficiency remained in line with general expectations, and the flow of the game was uninterrupted by major disciplinary issues, as zero red cards were issued to either side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Millwall showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was contrary to expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Diverging from xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Ipswich Town K. McKenna
K. McKenna
VS
Millwall A. Neil
A. Neil
1.88
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.75
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Preston North End Rank: 66 D
Sheffield United Rank: 71 L
Bristol City Rank: 68 W
Blackburn Rovers Rank: 67 W
Oxford United Rank: 65 W
Coventry City Rank: 77 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Charlton Athletic Rank: 68 W
Coventry City Rank: 77 L
Watford Rank: 69 W
Swansea City Rank: 68 W
Southampton Rank: 75 D
Bristol City Rank: 68 W
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 4 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Ipswich Town
54.89%
Draw
24.96%
Away Millwall
20.15%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.39
74.72
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Ipswich Town
Millwall
Power Score
68.39
74.72
League Position
3
4
Global Rank
87
108

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Ipswich Town — Opponent-weighted form score
Millwall — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Ipswich Town Millwall

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Ipswich Town

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Millwall

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Ipswich Town ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Millwall
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.86
41.94
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
41.94
30.86
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Ipswich Town -1.05 Efficiency Index
vs
Millwall +1.05 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Ipswich Town
Millwall
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Ipswich Town
vs
Millwall
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Ipswich Town Millwall
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Ipswich Town Millwall
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Ipswich Town
Millwall
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 20 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Ipswich Town IPS Home
20 matches
Millwall MLW Away
Match Record
10
Wins
6
4
Draws
4
6
Losses
10
Goals
35
Goals Scored
26
26
Goals Conceded
35
+9
Goal Difference
-9
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:21:26+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
C. Walton
England
28 C. Walton
D. Furlong
England
19 D. Furlong
D. O'Shea
Republic of Ireland
26 (C) D. O'Shea
J. Greaves
England
24 J. Greaves
B. Johnson
England
18 B. Johnson
A. Matusiwa
Netherlands
5 A. Matusiwa
D. Neil
Substitution
England
6 D. Neil
K. McAteer
Substitution
England
20 K. McAteer
A. Mehmeti
Substitution
Albania
33 A. Mehmeti
J. Clarke
Substitution
England
47 J. Clarke
I. Monzón
Substitution
Spain
31 I. Monzón
A. Patterson
England
13 A. Patterson
Z. Norton Sturge
England
3 Z. Norton Sturge
J. Cooper
England
5 (C) J. Cooper
C. Taylor
England
6 C. Taylor
T. Crama
France
4 T. Crama
B. Mitchell
Substitution
England
8 B. Mitchell
L. Cundle
Substitution
England
25 L. Cundle
C. Neghli
Substitution
Algeria
10 C. Neghli
M. Langstaff
Substitution
England
17 M. Langstaff
F. Azeez
England
11 F. Azeez
J. Coburn
England
19 J. Coburn

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 39 · Regular Season
Stadium
Portman Road Stadium
Capacity
29673
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Andrew Humphries
Simon Bennett
Matthew Wilkes
Michael Salisbury

Statistics

Possession
IPS
62%
MLW
38%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 3
9 Shots 3
55 Dangerous attacks 42
64 Possession 36
9 Corners 8
13 Free kicks 5
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 4
8 Successful Dribbles 1
94 Ball Safe 84
9 Goal Kicks 10
22 Throwins 26
17 Dribble Attempts 4
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25
33 Successful Headers 24
8 Goal Attempts 6
0 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Assists 1

Attacking

104 Attacks 77
2 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

76 Successful Passes Percentage 62
455 Passes 243
87 Long Passes 59
12 Key Passes 6
346 Successful Passes 151
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32
40 Successful Long Passes 19

Defensive

5 Tackles 17
2 Saves 3
12 Interceptions 7

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 2
24 Total Crosses 23

Discipline

5 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Michael Salisbury

Starting XI ▼

28
Christian Walton
Christian Walton Goalkeeper
7.16
18
Ben Johnson
Ben Johnson Defender
6.96
19
Darnell Furlong
Darnell Furlong Defender
6.78
24
Jacob Greaves
Jacob Greaves Defender
6.63
26
Dara O'Shea
Dara O'Shea (C) Defender
7.03
5
Azor Matusiwa
Azor Matusiwa Midfielder
7.13
6
Dan Neil
Dan Neil Midfielder
6.55
14
Jack Taylor
Jack Taylor
Midfielder68'
6.68
20
Kasey McAteer
Kasey McAteer Midfielder
6.42
11
Jaden Philogene
Jaden Philogene
Attacker68'
6.34
33
Anis Mehmeti
Anis Mehmeti Midfielder
6.83
29
Chuba Akpom
Chuba Akpom
Attacker72'
6.5
47
Jack Clarke
Jack Clarke Midfielder
8.51
8
Sindre Walle Egeli
Sindre Walle Egeli
Attacker87'
31
Iván Azón
Iván Azón Attacker
6.2
9
George Hirst
George Hirst
Attacker72'
6.74
Referee : Michael Salisbury

Starting XI ▼

13
Anthony Patterson
Anthony Patterson Goalkeeper
6.54
3
Zak Sturge
Zak Sturge Defender
6.37
4
Tristan Crama
Tristan Crama Defender
7.06
5
Jake Cooper
Jake Cooper (C) Defender
6.62
6
Caleb Taylor
Caleb Taylor Defender
7.99
8
Billy Mitchell
Billy Mitchell Midfielder
6.9
49
Derek Mazou-Sacko
Derek Mazou-Sacko
Midfielder83'
6.32
10
Camiel Neghli
Camiel Neghli Midfielder
7.15
22
Tom Watson
Tom Watson
Attacker83'
6.52
11
Femi Azeez
Femi Azeez Midfielder
6.83
17
Macaulay Langstaff
Macaulay Langstaff Midfielder
6.51
9
Mihailo Ivanović
Mihailo Ivanović
Attacker46'
6.29
25
Luke Cundle
Luke Cundle Midfielder
6.38
67
Barry Bannan
Barry Bannan
Midfielder68'
6.53
19
Josh Coburn
Josh Coburn Attacker
7.09

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Sindre Walle Egeli → Jack Clarke
9th Substitution
87'
86'
Event
Derek Mazou-Sacko
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
83'
Event
Derek Mazou-Sacko → Billy Mitchell
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Tom Watson → Camiel Neghli
8th Substitution
Event
Chuba Akpom → Anis Mehmeti
5th Substitution
72'
Event
George Hirst → Iván Azón
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Jaden Philogene → Kasey McAteer
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Jack Taylor → Dan Neil
4th Substitution
68'
68'
Event
Barry Bannan → Luke Cundle
2nd Substitution
Event
Iván Azón
Simulation / 2nd Yellowcard
53'
50'
Event
Josh Coburn
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
46'
Event
Mihailo Ivanović → Macaulay Langstaff
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Jack Clarke
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
41'
16'
Event
Josh Coburn
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Tristan Crama from Millwall committed a foul.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Millwall after Dara O'Shea allowed the ball to go out.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Millwall after Dara O'Shea allowed the ball to go out.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the score tied at 1-1 between Ipswich Town and Millwall.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Millwall after Darnell Furlong allowed the ball to go out.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Derek Mazou-Sacko from Millwall takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Jaden Philogene from Ipswich Town attempts a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
90
Update Update
George Hirst from Ipswich Town was awarded a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
89
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Barry Bannan from Millwall takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Josh Coburn.
89
Update Update
Mihailo Ivanovic from Millwall strikes the crossbar with a right-footed attempt from the middle of the penalty area.
89
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Femi Azeez from Millwall takes a shot with his right foot from the middle of the penalty area. However, Christian Walton, the goalkeeper for Ipswich Town, makes a crucial save right in front of the goal.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ipswich Town: Sindre Egeli comes on to replace Jack Clarke.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Derek Mazou-Sacko of Millwall has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
86
Update Update
Jack Clarke from Ipswich Town earned a free kick in the defensive area.
86
Update Update
Jack Clarke from Ipswich Town has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Millwall: Tom Watson replaces Camiel Neghli.
83
Update Update
Jack Clarke from Ipswich Town earned a free kick in the defensive area.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Millwall: Derek Mazou-Sacko replaces Billy Mitchell.
83
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Darnell Furlong of Ipswich Town heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully defended.
76
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Josh Coburn from Millwall took a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it went just wide.
75
Update Update
Ben Johnson from Ipswich Town commits a handball.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Millwall after Darnell Furlong allowed the ball to go out.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ipswich Town: George Hirst comes on to replace Iván Azón.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ipswich Town: Chuba Akpom comes on to replace Anis Mehmeti.
71
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered! Barry Bannan from Millwall attempted a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it went just wide. The assist came from Billy Mitchell following a corner kick.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Millwall after Jacob Greaves allowed the ball to go out.
69
Update Update
Jack Taylor from Ipswich Town earned a free kick in the defensive area.
69
Update Update
Jake Cooper from Millwall committed a foul.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ipswich Town: Jack Taylor replaces Dan Neil.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Millwall: Barry Bannan comes on to replace Luke Cundle.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ipswich Town: Jaden Philogene comes on to replace Kasey McAteer.
67
Update Update
Jake Cooper from Millwall committed a foul.
67
Update Update
Anis Mehmeti from Ipswich Town has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
66
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal is thwarted. Anis Mehmeti from Ipswich Town fires a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Azor Matusiwa.
66
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Anis Mehmeti from Ipswich Town took a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it went just wide.
64
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Ipswich Town after a foul by Billy Mitchell.
64
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Dan Neil from Ipswich Town fired a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Jack Clarke.
62
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted! Darnell Furlong of Ipswich Town had a header from within the six-yard box, but it narrowly went wide to the left. The assist came from Jack Clarke, who delivered a cross following a corner.
61
Update Update
Opportunity squandered. Caleb Taylor from Millwall attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area...
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Ipswich Town after Tristan Crama allowed the ball to go out.
61
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Jack Clarke from Ipswich Town took a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Azor Matusiwa.
60
Update Update
Azor Matusiwa from Ipswich Town committed a foul.
60
Update Update
Luke Cundle from Millwall earned a free kick in an offensive position.
59
Update Update
Femi Azeez from Millwall committed a foul.
59
Update Update
Offside call against Millwall. Mihailo Ivanovic has been flagged for being offside.
59
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Jacob Greaves of Ipswich Town headed the ball from close range following a corner, but it went wide.
59
Update Update
Ben Johnson from Ipswich Town has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
58
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Jack Clarke from Ipswich Town attempts a right-footed strike from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Anis Mehmeti.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Ipswich Town after Caleb Taylor allowed the ball to go out.
56
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Tristan Crama of Millwall takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, narrowly missing the top right corner.
55
Update Update
Christian Walton from Ipswich Town has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
55
Update Update
Josh Coburn from Millwall committed a foul.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Millwall after Dara O'Shea gave away the foul.
53
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Iván Azón of Ipswich Town has been shown a yellow card.
52
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Iván Azón from Ipswich Town takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Jack Clarke.
52
Update Update
Iván Azón from Ipswich Town has hit the ground, but the referee believes he is exaggerating the situation.
50
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now 1-1 between Ipswich Town and Millwall. Josh Coburn scores for Millwall with a right-footed shot from close range into the bottom left corner. The assist came from Camiel Neghli, who delivered a great cross.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Millwall after Darnell Furlong allowed the ball to go out.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Millwall: Mihailo Ivanovic comes on to replace Macaulay Langstaff.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Ipswich Town leading Millwall 1-0.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Millwall: Mihailo Ivanovic comes on to replace Macaulay Langstaff.
44
Update Update
Kasey McAteer from Ipswich Town earned a free kick in the defensive area.
44
Update Update
Zak Sturge from Millwall committed a foul.
44
Update Update
Billy Mitchell from Millwall committed a foul.
44
Update Update
Kasey McAteer from Ipswich Town has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
41
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ipswich Town takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Millwall. Jack Clarke scores with a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
39
Update Update
Caleb Taylor from Millwall was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
39
Update Update
Darnell Furlong from Ipswich Town committed a foul.
38
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Ipswich Town after Jake Cooper allowed the ball to go out.
37
Update Update
The attempt on goal is thwarted. Darnell Furlong of Ipswich Town heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully defended. The setup came from Ben Johnson, who delivered a cross.
36
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Ipswich Town after Jake Cooper allowed the ball to go out.
32
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Ipswich Town after Caleb Taylor allowed the ball to go out.
30
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Ipswich Town, following a foul by Jake Cooper.
29
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Iván Azón of Ipswich Town fires a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Dara O'Shea.
28
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Ipswich Town after Zak Sturge allowed the ball to go out.
27
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Femi Azeez from Millwall attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide to the left.
25
Update Update
Jack Clarke from Ipswich Town committed a foul.
25
Update Update
Caleb Taylor from Millwall earned a free kick in the defensive area.
24
Update Update
Offside call against Ipswich Town. Iván Azón is caught in an offside position.
23
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Tristan Crama from Millwall attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Billy Mitchell, who set him up with a header.
20
Update Update
A fresh offensive play unfolds as Jacob Greaves from Ipswich Town attempts a header from the right side of the six-yard box. However, Anthony Patterson of Millwall makes a crucial save, stopping the ball at the top center of the goal. The assist came from Jack Clarke, who delivered a cross into the area.
19
Corner Corner
Another offensive push. Iván Azón from Ipswich Town takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but Anthony Patterson of Millwall makes a great save, reaching up to deny it in the top left corner.
19
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Dan Neil from Ipswich Town fires a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
19
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Ipswich Town after a deflection off Anthony Patterson.
18
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Ben Johnson from Ipswich Town takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. The attempt is expertly stopped in the right corner by Anthony Patterson of Millwall, with Jack Clarke providing the assist.
17
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Josh Coburn from Millwall takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Femi Azeez.
16
Update Update
Jacob Greaves from Ipswich Town earned a free kick in the defensive area.
16
Update Update
Josh Coburn committed a foul against Millwall.
16
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Josh Coburn from Millwall has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
12
Update Update
Macaulay Langstaff from Millwall committed a handball.
9
Update Update
Josh Coburn committed a foul against Millwall.
9
Update Update
Dara O'Shea from Ipswich Town has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
8
Update Update
Jack Clarke from Ipswich Town earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
8
Update Update
Luke Cundle from Millwall committed a foul.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Millwall, following a play that resulted in a deflection off Christian Walton.
6
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive push unfolds as Camiel Neghli from Millwall takes a challenging left-footed shot from the left side. However, Christian Walton of Ipswich Town makes a great save, stopping the ball in the upper center of the goal. The assist for this play came from Macaulay Langstaff.
5
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Dan Neil from Ipswich Town took a shot with his right foot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the right of the goal. The assist came from Jack Clarke.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Millwall exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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