Leganés vs Ceuta Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Municipal de Butarque Sat, 21 Mar - 1:00 PM
La Liga 2
Leganés LEG
5 Winner 2
Ceuta Ceuta
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 1:00 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Amadou Diawara - 41' (P)
Seydouba Cissé - 48'
Juan Cruz - 85'
Gonzalo Melero - 90+1', 90+8'
Goal
|
Goal
Marcos Fernández - 11' (P)
Manu Sánchez - 89'

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished, with Leganés securing a definitive 4-2 victory over Ceuta. Despite the high-scoring final result, the game was tightly contested early on, with the two sides heading into the halftime break locked at an even 1-1 scoreline. Going into the fixture, Leganés were the pre-match favorites, backed by a 51.3% implied win probability compared to Ceuta's 21.5% chance and a 27.3% likelihood of a draw. The final outcome properly aligned with this pre-match market. However, Leganés registered a significant deviation level of 48.7%, comfortably overcoming their pre-match baseline to secure the result. On the pitch, Ceuta actually controlled the tempo and the majority of the ball, finishing with 54% possession against the home side's 46%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, meaning the outcome's alignment with xG could not be statistically determined. Nevertheless, the overall attacking efficiency shift was evaluated to be entirely in line with expectations for the prevailing favorites. Finally, the match flowed naturally without any severe disciplinary disruptions, as neither team received a red card during the contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Leganés showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Leganés I. Oca Pulido
I. Oca Pulido
VS
Ceuta J. Romero Gil
J. Romero Gil
1.17
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.74
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
SD Eibar Rank: 66 L
Sporting Gijón Rank: 65 D
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 59 D
Córdoba Rank: 62 L
Granada Rank: 67 W
Burgos Rank: 67 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mirandés Rank: 59 W
Córdoba Rank: 62 W
Granada Rank: 67 W
Huesca Rank: 60 L
Almería Rank: 70 L
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 59 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Leganés
51.28%
Draw
27.25%
Away Ceuta
21.48%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.41
56.78
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Leganés
Ceuta
Power Score
60.41
56.78
League Position
17
10
Global Rank
287
443

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Leganés — Opponent-weighted form score
Ceuta — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Leganés Ceuta

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Leganés

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Ceuta

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Leganés ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ceuta
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
50.11
30.74
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.74
50.11
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Leganés +1.96 Efficiency Index
vs
Ceuta -1.96 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Leganés
Ceuta
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Leganés ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ceuta
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Leganés Ceuta
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Leganés Ceuta
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Leganés
Ceuta
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Leganés LEG Home
1 matches
Ceuta Ceuta Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
2
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:21:31+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
J. Soriano Oropesa
Spain
1 (C) J. Soriano Oropesa
G. Aguilar López
Substitution
Spain
6 G. Aguilar López
I. Miquel i Pons
Spain
5 I. Miquel i Pons
M. Antolín Garzón
Spain
2 M. Antolín Garzón
E. Franquesa Dolz
Spain
15 E. Franquesa Dolz
A. Diawara
Guinea
24 A. Diawara
C. Guirao Mora
Substitution
Spain
26 C. Guirao Mora
L. Lopes
Cape Verde
11 L. Lopes
S. Cisse
Guinea
8 S. Cisse
J. Díaz Espósito
Substitution
Spain
10 J. Díaz Espósito
A. Millán Iranzo
Substitution
Spain
23 A. Millán Iranzo
G. Vallejo Delgado
Spain
13 G. Vallejo Delgado
J. Matos García
Spain
3 J. Matos García
D. González Cabanes
Spain
15 D. González Cabanes
C. Hernández Alarcón
Spain
6 (C) C. Hernández Alarcón
C. Redruello Nimo
Substitution
Spain
16 C. Redruello Nimo
M. Illescas Montaño
Spain
12 M. Illescas Montaño
Y. Didi
Substitution
Morocco
5 Y. Didi
Y. Bodiger
Substitution
France
14 Y. Bodiger
K. Kone
Substitution
Kenya
22 K. Kone
M. Fernández Sánchez
Spain
9 M. Fernández Sánchez
A. Ahmed Ahmed
Substitution
Spain
7 A. Ahmed Ahmed

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Municipal de Butarque
Capacity
12454
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Juan Antonio Campos Salinas
Manuel Jesús Orellana Cid
Ángel Ramos Cinos
José Manuel Sarmiento Millet

Statistics

Possession
LEG
49%
Ceuta
51%

Top Statistics

5 Goals 2
9 Big Chances Created 3
2 Shots 7
41 Dangerous attacks 52
46 Possession 54
4 Corners 7
7 Free kicks 18
5 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

0 Injuries 3
15 Throwins 15
7 Successful Dribbles 5
1 Penalties 1
18 Goal Attempts 7
81 Ball Safe 86
4 Goal Kicks 9
13 Dribble Attempts 10
54 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

68 Attacks 92
4 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

246 Successful Passes 286
81 Successful Passes Percentage 77
62 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
55 Long Passes 48
17 Key Passes 8
34 Successful Long Passes 16
302 Passes 370

Defensive

5 Interceptions 9
14 Tackles 13
3 Saves 3

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 20
9 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

17 Fouls 7
5 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Manuel Jesús Orellana Cid

Starting XI ▼

1
Juan Soriano
Juan Soriano (C) Goalkeeper
6.95
2
Marvelous Antolín Garzón
Marvelous Antolín Garzón Defender
6.63
5
Ignasi Miquel
Ignasi Miquel Defender
6.67
6
Lalo Aguilar
Lalo Aguilar Defender
6.44
36
Marcos Leiva Calvo
Marcos Leiva Calvo
Midfielder46'
6.28
15
Enric Franquesa
Enric Franquesa Defender
6.5
8
Seydouba Cissé
Seydouba Cissé Midfielder
8.09
10
Juan Cruz
Juan Cruz Midfielder
8.52
16
Gonzalo Melero
Gonzalo Melero
Midfielder87'
2
8.03
11
Duk
Duk Midfielder
7.76
24
Amadou Diawara
Amadou Diawara Midfielder
7.6
26
Carlos Guirao
Carlos Guirao Midfielder
6.95
9
Dani Rodríguez
Dani Rodríguez
Midfielder62'
6.59
23
Álex Millán
Álex Millán Attacker
6.71
12
Luis Asué
Luis Asué
Attacker62'
6.59
Referee : Manuel Jesús Orellana Cid

Starting XI ▼

13
Guillermo Vallejo
Guillermo Vallejo Goalkeeper
5.8
3
José Matos
José Matos Defender
6.07
6
Carlos Hernández
Carlos Hernández (C) Defender
5.98
15
Diego González
Diego González Defender
5.79
16
Carlos Redru
Carlos Redru Defender
6.27
11
Ignacio Schor
Ignacio Schor
Attacker57'
6.09
5
Youness Lachhab
Youness Lachhab Midfielder
6.36
2
Manu Sánchez
Manu Sánchez
Defender75'
6.64
12
Marino Illescas
Marino Illescas Midfielder
6.88
14
Yann Bodiger
Yann Bodiger Midfielder
6.55
26
Aboubacar Bassinga
Aboubacar Bassinga
Midfielder75'
6.13
7
Aisar Ahmed
Aisar Ahmed Attacker
6.7
10
Cristian Rodríguez
Cristian Rodríguez
Midfielder83'
5.1
9
Marcos Fernández
Marcos Fernández Attacker
7.5
22
Kialy Abdoul Kone
Kialy Abdoul Kone Attacker
6.87
18
Konrad de la Fuente
Konrad de la Fuente
Attacker46'
7.24

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Gonzalo Melero
Header / 5th Goal
90+8'
Event
Sebastián Figueredo
Simulation / 7th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Gonzalo Melero
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
90+1'
89'
Event
Manu Sánchez
Header / 3rd Goal
Event
Gonzalo Melero → Juan Cruz
10th Substitution
87'
Event
Juan Cruz
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
85'
83'
Event
Cristian Rodríguez → Aisar Ahmed
9th Substitution
Event
Juan Cruz
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
78'
75'
Event
Manu Sánchez → Youness Lachhab
8th Substitution
75'
Event
Aboubacar Bassinga → Yann Bodiger
7th Substitution
Event
Sebastián Figueredo → Marcos Leiva Calvo
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Amadou Diawara
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
70'
Event
Amadou Diawara
Red card cancelled
69'
Event
Marcos Leiva Calvo
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
65'
Event
Luis Asué → Álex Millán
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Dani Rodríguez → Carlos Guirao
5th Substitution
62'
57'
Event
Ignacio Schor → Carlos Redru
3rd Substitution
Event
Carlos Guirao
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
50'
Event
Seydouba Cissé
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
48'
Event
Marcos Leiva Calvo → Lalo Aguilar
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Konrad de la Fuente → Kialy Abdoul Kone
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Amadou Diawara
Right foot shot / 2nd Penalty
41'
33'
Event
Youness Lachhab
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
19'
Event
Marino Illescas
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
11'
Event
Marcos Fernández
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Leganés exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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