Cracovia Kraków vs Katowice Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach Sat, 21 Mar - 1:45 PM
Ekstraklasa
Cracovia Kraków Cracovia Kraków
1 Winner 0
Katowice Katowice
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 1:45 PM
Round 26 Regular Season
Ajdin Hasic - 80' (P)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Cracovia Kraków and Katowice has officially finished, with Cracovia Kraków claiming a narrow 1-0 victory. After a scoreless first half left the sides even at the break, the hosts ultimately found the breakthrough despite seeing less of the ball. Katowice controlled the overall tempo, holding 60 percent possession compared to Cracovia Kraków's 40 percent. With expected goals (xG) data unavailable for this fixture, it is impossible to assess if the final scoreline was consistent with the underlying shot quality. However, the teams' efficiency shift was in line with expectations, and the match proceeded cleanly without the impact of any red cards for either side. The final outcome was market aligned, reflecting pre-match expectations that gave Cracovia Kraków a 41.9 percent chance of winning, compared to Katowice's 28.6 percent and a 29.5 percent chance of a draw. Despite fulfilling their role as the market favorite, the victory still constituted a significant deviation level of 58.1 percent for Cracovia Kraków when measured against the broader probability spread.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Cracovia Kraków showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Cracovia Kraków L. Elsner
L. Elsner
VS
Katowice R. Górak
R. Górak
0.94
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.81
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Wisła Płock Rank: 54 L
Legia Warszawa Rank: 62 L
Piast Gliwice Rank: 62 L
Widzew Lodz Rank: 59 D
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 64 D
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: 62 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 63 L
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: 61 W
Radomiak Radom Rank: 60 W
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 65 W
Arka Gdynia Rank: 56 L
Legia Warszawa Rank: 64 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Cracovia Kraków
41.9%
Draw
29.53%
Away Katowice
28.58%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
61.57
63.66
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Cracovia Kraków
Katowice
Power Score
61.57
63.66
League Position
9
10
Global Rank
439
369

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Cracovia Kraków — Opponent-weighted form score
Katowice — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Cracovia Kraków Katowice

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Cracovia Kraków

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Katowice

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Cracovia Kraków ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Katowice
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.50
32.67
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.67
27.50
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Cracovia Kraków -0.48 Efficiency Index
vs
Katowice +0.48 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Cracovia Kraków
Katowice
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Cracovia Kraków ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Katowice
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Cracovia Kraków Katowice
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Cracovia Kraków Katowice
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Cracovia Kraków
Katowice
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Cracovia Kraków Cracovia Kraków Home
3 matches
Katowice Katowice Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
1
Goals
7
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
7
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:21:36+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
S. Madejski
Poland
13 S. Madejski
B. Šutalo
Croatia
21 B. Šutalo
O. Wójcik
Poland
66 O. Wójcik
G. Henriksson
Sweden
4 G. Henriksson
K. Knap
Poland
20 K. Knap
M. Klich
Substitution
Poland
43 (C) M. Klich
A. Al-Ammari
Sweden
6 A. Al-Ammari
P. Sans Lopez
Substitution
Spain
11 P. Sans Lopez
A. Hasić
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
14 A. Hasić
M. Tabisz
Substitution
Poland
19 M. Tabisz
M. Praszelik
Substitution
Poland
7 M. Praszelik
Pitch
R. Straczek
Poland
12 R. Straczek
L. Klemenz
Poland
6 L. Klemenz
A. Jędrych
Poland
4 (C) A. Jędrych
A. Czerwiński
Poland
30 A. Czerwiński
M. Wasielewski
Substitution
Poland
23 M. Wasielewski
D. Rasak
Substitution
Poland
26 D. Rasak
M. Kowalczyk
Substitution
Poland
77 M. Kowalczyk
E. Jirka
Slovakia
97 E. Jirka
B. Nowak
Poland
27 B. Nowak
M. Wdowiak
Substitution
Poland
70 M. Wdowiak
I. Shkurin
Belarus
80 I. Shkurin

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 21, 2026, 01:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 26 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach
Capacity :
2118
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Maciej Majewski
Patryk Świerczek
Paweł Malec
Michal Obukowicz

Statistics

Possession
Cracovia Kraków
42%
Katowice
58%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 2
7 Shots 11
40 Dangerous attacks 52
40 Possession 60
6 Corners 3
13 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

13 Dribble Attempts 10
1 Injuries 3
5 Goal Attempts 11
46 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60
11 Goal Kicks 8
6 Successful Dribbles 6
16 Throwins 25
80 Ball Safe 90
1 Penalties 0
5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 2
81 Attacks 99

Possession

200 Successful Passes 335
24 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
280 Passes 416
71 Successful Passes Percentage 81
14 Successful Long Passes 18
59 Long Passes 41

Defensive

13 Tackles 13
3 Saves 1
12 Interceptions 4

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 22
3 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

10 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Paweł Malec

Starting XI ▼

13
Sebastian Madejski
Sebastian Madejski Goalkeeper
7.04
4
Gustav Henriksson
Gustav Henriksson Defender
7.73
20
Karol Knap
Karol Knap Defender
6.85
21
Bosko Sutalo
Bosko Sutalo Defender
6.83
66
Oskar Wojcik
Oskar Wojcik Defender
7.66
6
Amir Al-Ammari
Amir Al-Ammari Midfielder
7.06
11
Pau Sans
Pau Sans Midfielder
6.91
15
Kamil Glik
Kamil Glik
Defender86'
14
Ajdin Hasic
Ajdin Hasic Midfielder
7.02
17
Martin Yankov
Martin Yankov
Midfielder86'
19
Mateusz Tabisz
Mateusz Tabisz Midfielder
6.51
70
Dijon Kameri
Dijon Kameri
Midfielder61'
6.35
43
Mateusz Klich
Mateusz Klich (C) Midfielder
6.5
10
Maxime Dominguez
Maxime Dominguez
Midfielder77'
6.54
7
Mateusz Praszelik
Mateusz Praszelik Attacker
6.86
29
Jean Batoum
Jean Batoum
Attacker77'
6.36
Referee : Paweł Malec

Starting XI ▼

12
Rafal Straczek
Rafal Straczek Goalkeeper
6.51
4
Arkadiusz Jedrych
Arkadiusz Jedrych (C) Defender
7.08
6
Lukas Klemenz
Lukas Klemenz Defender
6.55
30
Alan Czerwinski
Alan Czerwinski Defender
6.79
23
Marcin Wasielewski
Marcin Wasielewski Midfielder
6.83
8
Borja Galán
Borja Galán
Midfielder80'
6.5
26
Damian Rasak
Damian Rasak Midfielder
6.87
10
Marcel Wedrychowski
Marcel Wedrychowski
Midfielder80'
6.55
77
Mateusz Kowalczyk
Mateusz Kowalczyk Midfielder
6.59
11
Adrian Blad
Adrian Blad
Midfielder86'
97
Erik Jirka
Erik Jirka Midfielder
7.04
27
Bartosz Nowak
Bartosz Nowak Attacker
6.93
70
Mateusz Wdowiak
Mateusz Wdowiak Attacker
6.73
15
Eman Markovic
Eman Markovic
Midfielder68'
6.31
80
Ilya Shkurin
Ilya Shkurin Attacker
6.94

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Martin Yankov → Ajdin Hasic
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Kamil Glik → Pau Sans
8th Substitution
86'
86'
Event
Adrian Blad → Mateusz Kowalczyk
7th Substitution
Event
Ajdin Hasic
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
80'
80'
Event
Borja Galán → Marcin Wasielewski
5th Substitution
80'
Event
Marcel Wedrychowski → Damian Rasak
6th Substitution
Event
Maxime Dominguez → Mateusz Klich
4th Substitution
77'
Event
Jean Batoum → Mateusz Praszelik
3rd Substitution
77'
68'
Event
Eman Markovic → Mateusz Wdowiak
2nd Substitution
Event
Dijon Kameri → Mateusz Tabisz
1st Substitution
61'
1ST-HALF
Event
Pau Sans
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
26'
22'
Event
Damian Rasak
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Mateusz Klich
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
5'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Cracovia Kraków exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Cracovia Kraków vs Katowice preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.