Cesena vs Catanzaro Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi Sat, 21 Mar - 2:00 PM
Serie B
Cesena CES
3 Winner 1
Catanzaro CAT
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 2:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Alberto Cerri - 59'
Matteo Piacentini - 72'
Tommaso Berti - 90+4'
Goal
|
Goal
Mattia Liberali - 34'
|
Red Card Patrick Nuamah 87'

CONTEXT

The match between Cesena and Catanzaro is officially finished, with Cesena claiming a decisive 3-0 full-time victory. This result represented a significant deviation from overall team strength, as Catanzaro was initially considered the stronger side. However, the pre-match market probabilities favored the hosts, giving Cesena a 39% win probability, compared to a 34.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Cesena showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Cesena A. Cole
A. Cole
VS
Catanzaro A. Aquilani
A. Aquilani
1.16
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.8
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Modena Rank: 57 D
Monza Rank: 65 L
Empoli Rank: 57 D
Spezia Rank: 52 L
Venezia Rank: 70 L
Virtus Entella Rank: 49 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Empoli Rank: 55 W
Carrarese Rank: 52 D
Frosinone Rank: 66 D
Virtus Entella Rank: 49 W
Mantova Rank: 52 W
Pescara Rank: 48 W
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 0 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Cesena
38.96%
Draw
26.96%
Away Catanzaro
34.08%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
54.5
60.59
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Cesena
Catanzaro
Power Score
54.5
60.59
League Position
8
5
Global Rank
647
469

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Cesena — Opponent-weighted form score
Catanzaro — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Cesena Catanzaro

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Cesena

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Catanzaro

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Cesena ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Catanzaro
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.20
36.50
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
36.50
40.20
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Cesena +0.36 Efficiency Index
vs
Catanzaro -0.36 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Cesena
Catanzaro
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Cesena ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Catanzaro
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Cesena Catanzaro
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Cesena Catanzaro
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Cesena
Catanzaro
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 6 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Cesena CES Home
6 matches
Catanzaro CAT Away
Match Record
3
Wins
3
0
Draws
0
3
Losses
3
Goals
12
Goals Scored
10
10
Goals Conceded
12
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:21:46+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
J. Klinsmann
United States
33 J. Klinsmann
A. Ciofi
Italy
15 (C) A. Ciofi
G. Zaro
Italy
19 G. Zaro
M. Piacentini
Italy
26 M. Piacentini
T. Corazza
Italy
27 T. Corazza
D. Bisoli
Italy
25 D. Bisoli
S. Bastoni
Substitution
Italy
10 S. Bastoni
R. Ciervo
Substitution
Italy
11 R. Ciervo
T. Berti
Italy
14 T. Berti
C. Shpendi
Substitution
Albania
9 C. Shpendi
G. Vrioni
Substitution
Albania
22 G. Vrioni
M. Pigliacelli
Italy
22 M. Pigliacelli
N. Brighenti
Substitution
Italy
23 N. Brighenti
M. Antonini Lui
Brazil
4 M. Antonini Lui
T. Cassandro
Italy
84 T. Cassandro
G. Alesi
Substitution
Italy
30 G. Alesi
S. Pontisso
Italy
20 S. Pontisso
J. Petriccione
Substitution
Italy
10 J. Petriccione
C. Favasuli
Italy
27 C. Favasuli
P. Iemmello
Italy
9 (C) P. Iemmello
F. Pittarello
Substitution
Italy
8 F. Pittarello
M. Liberali
Substitution
Italy
14 M. Liberali

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi
Capacity
20194
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Andrea Calzavara
Alex Cavallina
Marco Ricci
Paride Tremolada

Statistics

Possession
CES
51%
CAT
49%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 2
6 Shots 3
42 Dangerous attacks 45
50 Possession 50
7 Corners 5
12 Free kicks 15
4 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

9 Goal Kicks 10
8 Successful Dribbles 4
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
10 Throwins 7
12 Dribble Attempts 11
11 Goal Attempts 12
76 Ball Safe 68
4 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 4

Attacking

86 Attacks 89
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

384 Successful Passes 388
39 Long Passes 32
16 Key Passes 12
87 Successful Passes Percentage 90
18 Successful Long Passes 19
441 Passes 433
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 59

Defensive

11 Tackles 18
2 Saves 3
3 Interceptions 4

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 21
5 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

15 Fouls 12
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Andrea Calzavara

Starting XI ▼

33
Jonathan Klinsmann
Jonathan Klinsmann Goalkeeper
6.72
15
Andrea Ciofi
Andrea Ciofi (C) Defender
6.72
19
Giovanni Zaro
Giovanni Zaro Defender
7.23
26
Matteo Piacentini
Matteo Piacentini Defender
7.72
27
Tommaso Corazza
Tommaso Corazza Defender
6.78
9
Cristian Shpendi
Cristian Shpendi Midfielder
5.93
—
Cristian Shpendi
90+3'
10
Simone Bastoni
Simone Bastoni Midfielder
7.12
70
Matteo Francesconi
Matteo Francesconi
Midfielder76'
6.5
11
Riccardo Ciervo
Riccardo Ciervo Midfielder
6.41
32
Marco Olivieri
Marco Olivieri
Attacker57'
7.09
14
Tommaso Berti
Tommaso Berti Midfielder
8.12
25
Dimitri Bisoli
Dimitri Bisoli Midfielder
7.4
22
Giacomo Vrioni
Giacomo Vrioni Attacker
6.94
7
Alberto Cerri
Alberto Cerri
Attacker56'
8.03
Referee : Andrea Calzavara

Starting XI ▼

22
Mirko Pigliacelli
Mirko Pigliacelli Goalkeeper
6.46
4
Matias Antonini
Matias Antonini Defender
6.62
23
Nicolò Brighenti
Nicolò Brighenti Defender
6.1
62
Ruggero Frosinini
Ruggero Frosinini
Defender77'
6.37
84
Tommaso Cassandro
Tommaso Cassandro Defender
6.79
10
Jacopo Petriccione
Jacopo Petriccione Midfielder
7.14
21
Marco Pompetti
Marco Pompetti
Midfielder65'
6.78
20
Simone Pontisso
Simone Pontisso Midfielder
7.08
27
Costantino Favasuli
Costantino Favasuli Midfielder
6.99
30
Gabriele Alesi
Gabriele Alesi Midfielder
7.07
94
Federico Di Francesco
Federico Di Francesco
Attacker65'
6.58
8
Filippo Pittarello
Filippo Pittarello Attacker
6.27
19
Patrick Nuamah
Patrick Nuamah
Attacker77'
5.05
9
Pietro Iemmello
Pietro Iemmello (C) Attacker
6.56
14
Mattia Liberali
Mattia Liberali Attacker
7.77
39
N'Dri Koffi
N'Dri Koffi
Attacker83'
6.46

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Pietro Iemmello
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Tommaso Berti
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
90+4'
Event
Matteo Guidi → Cristian Shpendi
9th Substitution
90+3'
Event
Alberto Cerri
Goal disallowed
89'
Event
Marco Olivieri
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
87'
87'
Event
Patrick Nuamah
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
83'
Event
N'Dri Koffi → Mattia Liberali
8th Substitution
Event
Giovanni Zaro
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
82'
Event
Alberto Cerri
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
78'
77'
Event
Patrick Nuamah → Filippo Pittarello
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Ruggero Frosinini → Nicolò Brighenti
6th Substitution
Event
Matteo Francesconi → Simone Bastoni
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Matteo Piacentini
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
72'
Event
Tommaso Corazza
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
70'
65'
Event
Marco Pompetti → Jacopo Petriccione
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Federico Di Francesco → Gabriele Alesi
3rd Substitution
Event
Alberto Cerri
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
59'
Event
Marco Olivieri → Riccardo Ciervo
2nd Substitution
57'
Event
Alberto Cerri → Giacomo Vrioni
1st Substitution
56'
1ST-HALF
34'
Event
Mattia Liberali
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Cesena exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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